GA: WRBL/Ledger-Enquirer: Nunn +1

[Marston]

Nunn: 46%
Purdue: 45%
Swafford: 6%

http://www.wrbl.com/story/26806078/wrbl-poll-voters-moving-towards-mainstream-party-candidates

[Chance92]

Fantastic. All we need is for Perdue to keep opening his mouth and he'll defeat himself for us.

[Flake]

Damn RI. You beat me by fifteen seconds.

[Mehmentum]

Good news: SUSA is not an outlier.

Bad news: Even if Nunn wins all the undecideds, she doesn't make it to 50%.

[Recalcuate]

Good news: SUSA is not an outlier.

Bad news: Even if Nunn wins all the undecideds, she doesn't make it to 50%.

Seems like the Libertarian is polling a bit high, but it does look like this race has swung in Nunn's direction. If it remains this close, a runoff is the likely answer.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is it actually happening?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

A win here would make up for a Dem loss in Iowa and then some.

[chrisras]

Fantastic. All we need is for Perdue to keep opening his mouth and he'll defeat himself for us.

LOL!  You're right!  Perdue is such a terrible candidate.  GOP establishment didn't get their guy in the primary and now it's coming back to bite them!  He is the Republican Bruce Braley.

[DrScholl]

Some posters here are about to need a 5150......

[JRP1994]

A win here would make up for a Dem loss in Iowa and then some.

Not "and then some" - 1 seat for 1 seat. This ain't the electoral college.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With this bad spate of polling and the outsourcing gaffe, and considering how late it is in the game, Nunn's chance of reaching 50% on election night is climbing fast. Sorry, Perdue, but I can no longer keep you at Leans R, and to be honest, nearly the entire reason I still have you with a slight advantage (on my no-toss-ups map) is the runoff - you only lead in my GE polling average by a pathetic 0.16%. Welcome to Toss-Up Territory.

[Keystone Phil]

Oh, please. Worst case, it goes to a runoff.

[IceSpear]

Figures that one of the few races where Dems are actually gaining ground is the one with a runoff...

[Eraserhead]

Figures that one of the few races where Dems are actually gaining ground is the one with a runoff...

The runoff factor is definitely something of a buzzkiller.

[DrScholl]

Even if Nunn isn't over 50% in polls, that doesn't necessarily mean she can't hit 50%. There have been races where candidates have lead in polls without hitting 50%, but gone on to get 50% or more in the actual election. We'll see what happens.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Griff can do doubt correct me if I'm wrong...

But, Nunn would need to hit 48-49% in the main round to have a decent shot in the run-off. But I imagine, the issue would be a turnout drop-off for another vote a month (or whatever) later? Which you'd assume would hurt Nunn more than Perdue.

[Mehmentum]

Griff can do doubt correct me if I'm wrong...

But, Nunn would need to hit 48-49% in the main round to have a decent shot in the run-off. But I imagine, the issue would be a turnout drop-off for another vote a month (or whatever) later? Which you'd assume would hurt Nunn more than Perdue.

The other issue is that the main third party candidate is a Libertarian and most of those voter will go to Perdue if they vote. 

[Marston]

I'd say Nunn would have to be averaging at least 47.5-48% in the polling aggregate to have a chance of hitting fifty on election day.

[IceSpear]

It would really suck if Nunn ended up getting like...49.8%, like Chambliss did in 2008.

[Adam Griffin]

Libertarian number on Election Day will be half of what it is in this poll, if even that. Nunn will pick up at least a third of that. No need to really haggle over the specific numbers in this poll - it's the trend that's important. They include margins of error for a reason.

Griff can do doubt correct me if I'm wrong...

But, Nunn would need to hit 48-49% in the main round to have a decent shot in the run-off. But I imagine, the issue would be a turnout drop-off for another vote a month (or whatever) later? Which you'd assume would hurt Nunn more than Perdue.

Ideally, yes; probably 49% or greater. My actual measurement (which is basically the same) is that Nunn needs to be ahead of Perdue by 2.5-3 points to win a run-off, which would mean in almost any case that she has pulled a Chambliss and is hovering barely under 50% on Election Night. The 2008 run-off is not a good race to look at in my opinion, as I explained a week or so ago in another post. The black electorate has stabilized and has proven itself more reliable since then, but there is always the possibility that having two separate run-offs in the state could negate these gains. If the Senate comes down to Georgia, though, I expect both sides to be highly motivated, organized and turning out to vote. Nevertheless, I think this will look more like 1992's run-off than 2008's, where Fowler got 49.2% in 1992 compared to Coverdell's 47.7%, but Coverdell still squeaked out a win in the run-off by less than a point.

(fyi Bacon King totally looks like Wyche Fowler)

[Lief 🗽]

If a racist old white Republican can get blacks to turn out in a Republican runoff in Mississippi, then I don't know why Nunn can't do the same here in Georgia. Plus the drop-off from a midterm to a run-off is much less than from a presidential year to a run-off.

[Podgy the Bear]

If it gets to a runoff (which I think it will), it will depend on:

1) how far Nunn will run ahead of Perdue on November 4 (if at all).   She would probably need at least a 2 point lead on Election Day.

2) the Senate breakdown after November 4.  If the Republicans have already won the Senate in November, the enthusiasm level goes down (like it did for the Democrats in 1992 Coverdell-Fowler and 2008 Chambliss-Martin), and  the runoff will probably favor Nunn

[Eraserhead]

If it gets to a runoff (which I think it will), it will depend on:

1) how far Nunn will run ahead of Perdue on November 4 (if at all).   She would probably need at least a 2 point lead on Election Day.

2) the Senate breakdown after November 4.  If the Republicans have already won the Senate in November, the enthusiasm level goes down (like it did for the Democrats in 1992 Coverdell-Fowler and 2008 Chambliss-Martin), and  the runoff will probably favor Nuenn

A lack enthusiasm/interest from voters in general would almost certainly hurt Nunn.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

If it gets to a runoff (which I think it will), it will depend on:

1) how far Nunn will run ahead of Perdue on November 4 (if at all).   She would probably need at least a 2 point lead on Election Day.

2) the Senate breakdown after November 4.  If the Republicans have already won the Senate in November, the enthusiasm level goes down (like it did for the Democrats in 1992 Coverdell-Fowler and 2008 Chambliss-Martin), and  the runoff will probably favor Nuenn

A lack enthusiasm/interest from voters in general would almost certainly hurt Nunn.

If it goes to a runoff under any circumstances, let's just say that Nunn's dunn.

[Adam Griffin]

If it gets to a runoff (which I think it will), it will depend on:

1) how far Nunn will run ahead of Perdue on November 4 (if at all).   She would probably need at least a 2 point lead on Election Day.

2) the Senate breakdown after November 4.  If the Republicans have already won the Senate in November, the enthusiasm level goes down (like it did for the Democrats in 1992 Coverdell-Fowler and 2008 Chambliss-Martin), and  the runoff will probably favor Nuenn

A lack enthusiasm/interest from voters in general would almost certainly hurt Nunn.

If it goes to a runoff under any circumstances, let's just say that Nunn's dunn.

Let's not and say we did.