Who wins Colorado?

[Free Bird]

I'd love to see what the vote will be now with the Gardner surge.

[Maxwell]

Cory Gardner. They literally tried to refute the fact that he played high school football and Mark Udall called him Senator. I'm not saying it's impossible for Mark Udall to win, but I think it's more likely Cory Gardner does.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

While Gardner's chances are better than Buck's, I feel the same way I did about that race: The Republican is objectively favored and I predict he'll win.  However, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if my prediction turns out to be wrong and the Democrat barely wins.

[Free Bird]

While Gardner's chances are better than Buck's, I feel the same way I did about that race: The Republican is objectively favored and I predict he'll win.  However, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if my prediction turns out to be wrong and the Democrat barely wins.

[Kevin]

While Gardner's chances are better than Buck's, I feel the same way I did about that race: The Republican is objectively favored and I predict he'll win.  However, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if my prediction turns out to be wrong and the Democrat barely wins.

[Mr. Reactionary]

R + 1

[Flake]

Gardner is favored

[Antonio the Sixth]

Gardner is favored

[RogueBeaver]

Udall.

[backtored]

While Gardner's chances are better than Buck's, I feel the same way I did about that race: The Republican is objectively favored and I predict he'll win.  However, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if my prediction turns out to be wrong and the Democrat barely wins.

Yep.

[Free Bird]

Udall.

K explain

[RogueBeaver]

^ VBM, incumbency, state's light blue tint.

[RR1997]

Gardner, but I have a feeling that this will be the closest election of the night.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm switching my prediction to Gardner. Considering that this is the last 2.5 weeks, this isn't good for Udall.

[Maxwell]

If Udall does lose, we can't blame it all on him. Gardner has run the best campaign of the cycle.

[GaussLaw]

Udall.

You're one of the most pessimistic blue avies on this site.

IMO, I have it at 50/50.  Gardner probably needs to be up by about 3 on Election Day to be favored.

[Suburbia]

Gardner.

[Mogrovejo]

Udall.

You're one of the most pessimistic blue avies on this site.

IMO, I have it at 50/50.  Gardner probably needs to be up by about 3 on Election Day to be favored.

I have it at 50/50 right now too; but if Gardner is up by 3 on election day (on polling aggregates), then I'll have Gardner at 9/1 or so. Candidates who lead polling averages by 3 in the election day very rarely lose; the fact that it's happened in Colorado recently doesn't mean much beyond that one would expect it to happen somewhere. What I think is that the race is still fluid enough for Udall to catch up.

FWIW, there's a Dem poll (for the SMPac) showing Udall up by 2 (with 3rd parties) or 3 (w/o 3rd parties): https://salsa3.salsalabs.com/o/50742/images/COSenatePollMemo.pdf

[5280]

Gardner

[Chance92]

Gardner, tragically.

[Talleyrand]

Udall is finished. He's run a weak, single-issue campaign that has been easily refuted, and he's up against possibly the best candidate of the cycle.

In addition, he's severely underperforming his ticket mate. My personal guess is that he goes down by 3-6 points.

[backtored]

I'm switching my prediction to Gardner. Considering that this is the last 2.5 weeks, this isn't good for Udall.

And it isn't really the last couple of weeks, either.  The election is happening as I type.  By now almost all of Colorado has received a ballot.  They are, practically speaking, in the voting booth right now.  Udall doesn't have any time left to change the trajectory of the race.  All he can do is try to scrounge up as many supportive ballots as he can get, which may yet still be short of victory.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Udall (hack, panicked)

[Eraserhead]

My gut is still telling me that Udall will pull it off. We shall see.

[KCDem]

Udall easily.