PPP-IA: Braley +1
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Author Topic: PPP-IA: Braley +1  (Read 8649 times)
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #25 on: October 17, 2014, 12:07:23 PM »

Oh, Republicans here.

Poll shows Ernst up six: "We're going to net eight seats!"
Poll shows Braley up one: "Nah, this can't be tied."

Both polls deviated from the consensus of pollsters. It would be foolish to evaluate a race based on individual polls as opposed to the aggregate picture that all the legitimate polls tell.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #26 on: October 17, 2014, 12:10:59 PM »

Oh, Republicans here.

Poll shows Ernst up six: "We're going to net eight seats!"
Poll shows Braley up one: "Nah, this can't be tied."

It's not, and we're still gaining eight seats Smiley

The spinning here is pathetic and hilarious.

Adding this quote to my signature.

You were saying that Terri Lynn Land would win and argued with me about it, and it turns out that I was right, since that seat turned out to be a poor prospect for Republicans. Add that to your signature.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #27 on: October 17, 2014, 12:15:30 PM »

The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.

In reality, Ernst went from -4 to tied in the Loras poll, tied to +2 in the marist poll, and tied to +4 in the Suffolk poll.


Someone's closing all right.
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Chance92
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« Reply #28 on: October 17, 2014, 12:16:14 PM »


I don't see you bitching when Krazen proclaims the end of the Democratic Party every time there's a virtual tie. You're in no position to talk.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #29 on: October 17, 2014, 12:18:02 PM »

Oh, Republicans here.

Poll shows Ernst up six: "We're going to net eight seats!"
Poll shows Braley up one: "Nah, this can't be tied."

Oh like you guys are any better
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DrScholl
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« Reply #30 on: October 17, 2014, 12:18:18 PM »

The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.

In reality, Ernst went from -4 to tied in the Loras poll, tied to +2 in the marist poll, and tied to +4 in the Suffolk poll.


Someone's closing all right.

Wrong as usual. There were at least two polls that showed Ernst up six, but that lead collapsed when both pollsters polled again (DMR and Quinnipiac). Further more, Ernst is hitting a ceiling of 47-48, which is about what she will get on election day.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #31 on: October 17, 2014, 12:21:38 PM »

The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.

In reality, Ernst went from -4 to tied in the Loras poll, tied to +2 in the marist poll, and tied to +4 in the Suffolk poll.


Someone's closing all right.

Wrong as usual. There were at least two polls that showed Ernst up six, but that lead collapsed when both pollsters polled again (DMR and Quinnipiac). Further more, Ernst is hitting a ceiling of 47-48, which is about what she will get on election day.

Actually, that's directly from RCP. Try again.
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windjammer
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« Reply #32 on: October 17, 2014, 12:21:46 PM »

This is an interesting development. This race will be down to the wire.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #33 on: October 17, 2014, 12:23:36 PM »

Waiting for another poll to confirm that, but that's quite relieving.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #34 on: October 17, 2014, 12:25:31 PM »
« Edited: October 17, 2014, 12:28:06 PM by SPC »

The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.

In reality, Ernst went from -4 to tied in the Loras poll, tied to +2 in the marist poll, and tied to +4 in the Suffolk poll.


Someone's closing all right.

Wrong as usual. There were at least two polls that showed Ernst up six, but that lead collapsed when both pollsters polled again (DMR and Quinnipiac). Further more, Ernst is hitting a ceiling of 47-48, which is about what she will get on election day.

Perhaps that earlier Selzer poll and Quinnipiac were outliers, because I can't imagine things have improved this quickly for Bruce Braley.

Don't let basic statistics get in the way of the narrative!

Roll Eyes

I should note that of the three polls showing Ernst's position worsening, PPP's is the only one that seems that it could potentially be indicative of a trend, if only because their previous numbers were right in line with the consensus to begin with. However, the fact that several other pollsters have now shown Ernst with a slight lead indicates that PPP's poll being an outlier is just as much of a possibility.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #35 on: October 17, 2014, 12:26:48 PM »

The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.

In reality, Ernst went from -4 to tied in the Loras poll, tied to +2 in the marist poll, and tied to +4 in the Suffolk poll.


Someone's closing all right.

Wrong as usual. There were at least two polls that showed Ernst up six, but that lead collapsed when both pollsters polled again (DMR and Quinnipiac). Further more, Ernst is hitting a ceiling of 47-48, which is about what she will get on election day.

Actually, that's directly from RCP. Try again.

You ignored the fact that the DMR poll had Ernst up 6% last month, but when they polled again, she collapsed to 1%. Quinnipiac had Ernst 6% last month, but only up 2% when they polled again.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #36 on: October 17, 2014, 12:27:37 PM »

The IA absentee request trend is not really encouraging though.

The Dem-lead is down to 2.7%, while the final margin in 2010 was D+5.7% ...
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DrScholl
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« Reply #37 on: October 17, 2014, 12:28:08 PM »

The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.

In reality, Ernst went from -4 to tied in the Loras poll, tied to +2 in the marist poll, and tied to +4 in the Suffolk poll.


Someone's closing all right.

Wrong as usual. There were at least two polls that showed Ernst up six, but that lead collapsed when both pollsters polled again (DMR and Quinnipiac). Further more, Ernst is hitting a ceiling of 47-48, which is about what she will get on election day.

Perhaps that earlier Selzer poll and Quinnipiac were outliers, because I can't imagine things have improved this quickly for Bruce Braley.

Don't let basic statistics get in the way of the narrative!

Roll Eyes

What is your point? Go sit down, please.
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Mr. Reactionary
blackraisin
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« Reply #38 on: October 17, 2014, 12:30:09 PM »

Junk Poll!

Hahahaha
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krazen1211
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« Reply #39 on: October 17, 2014, 12:30:28 PM »

You ignored the fact that the DMR poll had Ernst up 6% last month, but when they polled again, she collapsed to 1%. Quinnipiac had Ernst 6% last month, but only up 2% when they polled again.

And you ignored the loras, marist, and suffolk polls that show ernst growing her lead.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #40 on: October 17, 2014, 12:30:41 PM »

The IA absentee request trend is not really encouraging though.

The Dem-lead is down to 2.7%, while the final margin in 2010 was D+5.7% ...
Are you referring to this?
http://dd.aoshq.com/iowa-ballot-returns/
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #41 on: October 17, 2014, 12:31:21 PM »

The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.

In reality, Ernst went from -4 to tied in the Loras poll, tied to +2 in the marist poll, and tied to +4 in the Suffolk poll.


Someone's closing all right.

Wrong as usual. There were at least two polls that showed Ernst up six, but that lead collapsed when both pollsters polled again (DMR and Quinnipiac). Further more, Ernst is hitting a ceiling of 47-48, which is about what she will get on election day.

Perhaps that earlier Selzer poll and Quinnipiac were outliers, because I can't imagine things have improved this quickly for Bruce Braley.

Don't let basic statistics get in the way of the narrative!

Roll Eyes

What is your point? Go sit down, please.

The idea that a company that previously had a poll deviating from the consensus by several points is now posting numbers consistent with other pollsters is not evidence of "momentum" for Braley; more likely it is attributable to random chance. As I stated earlier, the only definitive evidence we have so far of a Braley comeback is a partisan poll from PPP, and until other polls start to show similar movement away from the consensus of a slight Ernst lead, PPP's result should not be taken at face value.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #42 on: October 17, 2014, 12:33:31 PM »

You ignored the fact that the DMR poll had Ernst up 6% last month, but when they polled again, she collapsed to 1%. Quinnipiac had Ernst 6% last month, but only up 2% when they polled again.

And you ignored the loras, marist, and suffolk polls that show ernst growing her lead.

The problem with your logic is that they polled the race before she had a burst of momentum that showed up 6%. Their most recent polling was at the end of the peak or after it. The trends among pollsters that polled during her peak shows a trajectory downward, not upward.

But please, keep it up, this 5150 meltdown is hilarious.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #43 on: October 17, 2014, 12:34:03 PM »

The IA absentee request trend is not really encouraging though.

The Dem-lead is down to 2.7%, while the final margin in 2010 was D+5.7% ...
Are you referring to this?
http://dd.aoshq.com/iowa-ballot-returns/

Not the returns (because they lag behind), but the requests:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oCBdr7Mu_PzF454sbZDmIpYMlehTzISDLNxeJKOTGtA/edit?pli=1#gid=0
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DrScholl
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« Reply #44 on: October 17, 2014, 12:37:46 PM »

The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.

In reality, Ernst went from -4 to tied in the Loras poll, tied to +2 in the marist poll, and tied to +4 in the Suffolk poll.


Someone's closing all right.

Wrong as usual. There were at least two polls that showed Ernst up six, but that lead collapsed when both pollsters polled again (DMR and Quinnipiac). Further more, Ernst is hitting a ceiling of 47-48, which is about what she will get on election day.

Perhaps that earlier Selzer poll and Quinnipiac were outliers, because I can't imagine things have improved this quickly for Bruce Braley.

Don't let basic statistics get in the way of the narrative!

Roll Eyes

What is your point? Go sit down, please.

The idea that a company that previously had a poll deviating from the consensus by several points is now posting numbers consistent with other pollsters is not evidence of "momentum" for Braley; more likely it is attributable to random chance. As I stated earlier, the only definitive evidence we have so far of a Braley comeback is a partisan poll from PPP, and until other polls start to show similar movement away from the consensus of a slight Ernst lead, PPP's result should not be taken at face value.

You're right, PPP is lying and faking polls for Braley. As always, you people are 100% right!
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #45 on: October 17, 2014, 12:40:51 PM »

ITT: people who don't understand MoE.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #46 on: October 17, 2014, 01:19:34 PM »

Stupendous news! An extremist nutjob like Ernst has no business being a US Senator.

Is it possible that Braley is improving because of early voting? In other words, Dems are getting a lot of people out to vote who would normally be shut out of the LV screen, but you can't say someone who already voted isn't a likely voter.
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Torie
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« Reply #47 on: October 17, 2014, 01:22:52 PM »

Stupendous news! An extremist nutjob like Ernst has no business being a US Senator.

Is it possible that Braley is improving because of early voting? In other words, Dems are getting a lot of people out to vote who would normally be shut out of the LV screen, but you can't say someone who already voted isn't a likely voter.

You really believe the above?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #48 on: October 17, 2014, 01:23:49 PM »

Stupendous news! An extremist nutjob like Ernst has no business being a US Senator.

Is it possible that Braley is improving because of early voting? In other words, Dems are getting a lot of people out to vote who would normally be shut out of the LV screen, but you can't say someone who already voted isn't a likely voter.

You really believe the above?

Yes?
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DrScholl
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« Reply #49 on: October 17, 2014, 01:24:58 PM »

Ernst's position on Agenda 21 certainly qualifies as an extremist position. Not to mention, she called the shooting at UCSB as an accident, which was just plain crazy.
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