PPP-IA: Braley +1

[Torie]

Stupendous news! An extremist nutjob like Ernst has no business being a US Senator.

Is it possible that Braley is improving because of early voting? In other words, Dems are getting a lot of people out to vote who would normally be shut out of the LV screen, but you can't say someone who already voted isn't a likely voter.

You really believe the above?

Yes?

The question mark appended to the "yes" meaning that you are unsure if you really believe what you said?

[IceSpear]

Stupendous news! An extremist nutjob like Ernst has no business being a US Senator.

Is it possible that Braley is improving because of early voting? In other words, Dems are getting a lot of people out to vote who would normally be shut out of the LV screen, but you can't say someone who already voted isn't a likely voter.

You really believe the above?

Yes?

The question mark appended to the "yes" meaning that you are unsure if you really believe what you said?

The question mark was because your question was fairly odd, considering any rational person knows that Joni Ernst is an extremist nutjob.

[Torie]

Ernst's position on Agenda 21 certainly qualifies as an extremist position. Not to mention, she called the shooting at UCSB as an accident, which was just plain crazy.

My guess is that I would take exception to a fair amount of Agenda 21 myself.

[Torie]

Stupendous news! An extremist nutjob like Ernst has no business being a US Senator.

Is it possible that Braley is improving because of early voting? In other words, Dems are getting a lot of people out to vote who would normally be shut out of the LV screen, but you can't say someone who already voted isn't a likely voter.

You really believe the above?

Yes?

The question mark appended to the "yes" meaning that you are unsure if you really believe what you said?

The question mark was because your question was fairly odd, considering any rational person knows that Joni Ernst is an extremist nutjob.

IC. I guess that I am just irrational then. Thanks.

[Ryan in Iowa]

The IA absentee request trend is not really encouraging though.

The Dem-lead is down to 2.7%, while the final margin in 2010 was D+5.7% ...

The GOP has taken a completely different stance on early voting this year (to their credit), so there is no way the dems will finish with an outsized lead. However, the GOP they are targeting Republicans, which are highly likely to vote anyways on election day.

The Dems made a huge effort to target casual dems/independents early, and it may be the difference at the end.

[IceSpear]

Stupendous news! An extremist nutjob like Ernst has no business being a US Senator.

Is it possible that Braley is improving because of early voting? In other words, Dems are getting a lot of people out to vote who would normally be shut out of the LV screen, but you can't say someone who already voted isn't a likely voter.

You really believe the above?

Yes?

The question mark appended to the "yes" meaning that you are unsure if you really believe what you said?

The question mark was because your question was fairly odd, considering any rational person knows that Joni Ernst is an extremist nutjob.

IC. I guess that I am just irrational then. Thanks.

Perhaps. Unless you think that someone who thinks Obama is a dictator that should be impeached, peddles Agenda 21 conspiracy theories, supports Personhood which failed even in Mississippi, thinks the EPA should be abolished, thinks Iraq had WMDs, etc. is not an extremist. She's basically a more charismatic version of Sharron Angle. I know the Republicans have gone far right recently, but even by that standard she's still way out of the mainstream.

[Ryan in Iowa]

Stupendous news! An extremist nutjob like Ernst has no business being a US Senator.

Is it possible that Braley is improving because of early voting? In other words, Dems are getting a lot of people out to vote who would normally be shut out of the LV screen, but you can't say someone who already voted isn't a likely voter.

It probably is helping , but it depends on the poll. Early voting definitely helped Braley on the Selzer poll, which used too tough of a likely voter model 2 months away from the election.

Honestly, the biggest problem from Ernst is that as the light shines on her more, her views for Iowa are problematic at getting to 50+%.

She would not be in this race if it wasn't for Braley's early mistakes, however, to his credit he has preformed well in the debates. The problem with that is very few watch the debates.

[Rockefeller GOP]

My bet was always that IA's light blue tint would assert itself, so can't say I'm surprised.

It's only light blue in Presidential elections, but I guess that's all this board ever uses when saying "red state" or "blue state."  Iowa has a Republican governor, Republican senate, Republican house, a Republican Senator (soon to be two, possibly) and their House delegation is every divided.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

My bet was always that IA's light blue tint would assert itself, so can't say I'm surprised.

It's only light blue in Presidential elections, but I guess that's all this board ever uses when saying "red state" or "blue state."  Iowa has a Republican governor, Republican senate, Republican house, a Republican Senator (soon to be two, possibly) and their House delegation is every divided.

I'm pretty sure the Democrats control the Iowa State Senate, plus we've probably got a small edge in the race for Latham's house seat and Braley could still win this race (despite his best efforts ).

[ElectionsGuy]

Well good, its what we confirmed all along, its a toss-up.

BTW: This thread was created 5 hours ago and it already has 3 pages! Wow

[Keystone Phil]

Look at the Dems slobber over an internal. It would be precious if it wasn't so very sad.

[SPC]

The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.

In reality, Ernst went from -4 to tied in the Loras poll, tied to +2 in the marist poll, and tied to +4 in the Suffolk poll.


Someone's closing all right.

Wrong as usual. There were at least two polls that showed Ernst up six, but that lead collapsed when both pollsters polled again (DMR and Quinnipiac). Further more, Ernst is hitting a ceiling of 47-48, which is about what she will get on election day.

Perhaps that earlier Selzer poll and Quinnipiac were outliers, because I can't imagine things have improved this quickly for Bruce Braley.

Don't let basic statistics get in the way of the narrative!

What is your point? Go sit down, please.

The idea that a company that previously had a poll deviating from the consensus by several points is now posting numbers consistent with other pollsters is not evidence of "momentum" for Braley; more likely it is attributable to random chance. As I stated earlier, the only definitive evidence we have so far of a Braley comeback is a partisan poll from PPP, and until other polls start to show similar movement away from the consensus of a slight Ernst lead, PPP's result should not be taken at face value.

You're right, PPP is lying and faking polls for Braley. As always, you people are 100% right!

Welcome to the ignore list.

[DrScholl]

The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.

In reality, Ernst went from -4 to tied in the Loras poll, tied to +2 in the marist poll, and tied to +4 in the Suffolk poll.


Someone's closing all right.

Wrong as usual. There were at least two polls that showed Ernst up six, but that lead collapsed when both pollsters polled again (DMR and Quinnipiac). Further more, Ernst is hitting a ceiling of 47-48, which is about what she will get on election day.

Perhaps that earlier Selzer poll and Quinnipiac were outliers, because I can't imagine things have improved this quickly for Bruce Braley.

Don't let basic statistics get in the way of the narrative!

What is your point? Go sit down, please.

The idea that a company that previously had a poll deviating from the consensus by several points is now posting numbers consistent with other pollsters is not evidence of "momentum" for Braley; more likely it is attributable to random chance. As I stated earlier, the only definitive evidence we have so far of a Braley comeback is a partisan poll from PPP, and until other polls start to show similar movement away from the consensus of a slight Ernst lead, PPP's result should not be taken at face value.

You're right, PPP is lying and faking polls for Braley. As always, you people are 100% right!

Welcome to the ignore list.

Thank you, I was sick of you replying to my posts. Don't let the door hit you.

[Maxwell]

Well good, its what we confirmed all along, its a toss-up.

BTW: This thread was created 5 hours ago and it already has 3 pages! Wow

Don't worry, it's mostly useless posts!

[Ryan in Iowa]

My bet was always that IA's light blue tint would assert itself, so can't say I'm surprised.

It's only light blue in Presidential elections, but I guess that's all this board ever uses when saying "red state" or "blue state."  Iowa has a Republican governor, Republican senate, Republican house, a Republican Senator (soon to be two, possibly) and their House delegation is every divided.

This is actually incorrect.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Perhaps. Unless you think that someone who thinks Iraq had WMDs, etc. is not an extremist.

cough

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/10/14/world/middleeast/us-casualties-of-iraq-chemical-weapons.html?_r=0

[Brittain33]

Perhaps. Unless you think that someone who thinks Iraq had WMDs, etc. is not an extremist.

cough

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/10/14/world/middleeast/us-casualties-of-iraq-chemical-weapons.html?_r=0

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2014/10/no-theres-still-no-evidence-there-was-active-wmd-program-iraq

It's not a revelation that Iraq had chemical weapons in the 1980s.

[Sbane]

Guys, when you conduct 10 polls of a race where one candidate leads by 1-3 points, you're bound to get 1 or 2 that show the other candidate with a narrow lead. This is totally consistent with what we know, and Ernst is still on track to win.

Agreed. A small Ernst win is within the margin of error of this poll as well.

[DrScholl]

Perhaps. Unless you think that someone who thinks Iraq had WMDs, etc. is not an extremist.

cough

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/10/14/world/middleeast/us-casualties-of-iraq-chemical-weapons.html?_r=0

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2014/10/no-theres-still-no-evidence-there-was-active-wmd-program-iraq

It's not a revelation that Iraq had chemical weapons in the 1980s.

Indeed. Ernst is of the mind that the weapons were there, but Iraq moved them before the invasion.

[SPC]

ITT: people who don't understand MoE.

The point of a polling average is to reduce the standard error, as a polling average effectively increases the sample size. If we were to treat the polls taken in October by PPP, Suffolk, Quinnipiac, Selzer, Loras, and Marist as one large poll, that would have 4,559 respondents (which results in a margin of error of 1.45%), with Ernst leading by roughly 1.3%. While that is still within the margin of error, and thus not enough to definitively say Ernst is ahead, the margin of error only refers to a 95% confidence interval. Thus, I do not think it is unfair to say that Ernst probably has a lead, unless there is reason to believe in a systematic bias in every Iowa poll of the past two weeks.

[Devils30]

Still a long 18 days to go and just one poll. That said, there really isn't anything about this sample that should bring questions.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What is funny is Republicans running around screeching that this means nothing. It's not the breakthrough that the Dems seem to be saying, but it's still PPP and it does have to be taken seriously.

[Badger]

Stupendous news! An extremist nutjob like Ernst has no business being a US Senator.

Is it possible that Braley is improving because of early voting? In other words, Dems are getting a lot of people out to vote who would normally be shut out of the LV screen, but you can't say someone who already voted isn't a likely voter.

You really believe the above?

Yes?

The question mark appended to the "yes" meaning that you are unsure if you really believe what you said?

The question mark was because your question was fairly odd, considering any rational person knows that Joni Ernst is an extremist nutjob.

IC. I guess that I am just irrational then. Thanks.

Perhaps. Unless you think that someone who thinks Obama is a dictator that should be impeached, peddles Agenda 21 conspiracy theories, supports Personhood which failed even in Mississippi, thinks the EPA should be abolished, thinks Iraq had WMDs, etc. is not an extremist. She's basically a more charismatic version of Sharron Angle. I know the Republicans have gone far right recently, but even by that standard she's still way out of the mainstream.

Seriously Torie. I may've been a godless Democrat not THAT long ago, but how is she materially different than, say, Michelle Bachmann? If Ernst isn't extreme, then.....

[Landon1993]

Both candidates are terrible, so why would we be surprised that this is so close? Honestly, my heart goes out to the voters of Iowa for the pain they will feel as they eye the ballot on election day.

Lets see, we have....

Idiot Number 1- The extreme lunatic.
Idiot Number 2- The gaffe prone snob whom insulted the state by going after one of its most renown industries.

[IceSpear]

What is funny is Republicans running around screeching that this means nothing. It's not the breakthrough that the Dems seem to be saying, but it's still PPP and it does have to be taken seriously.

It is rather odd considering the fact that Selzer (widely considered the best in Iowa) shows Ernst up 1 and Quinnipiac shows her up 2. It's not like this is some kind of massive departure from the consensus, unless you really thought she was up 9 like MageLOLan said.