How many more Republicans than Democrats will vote in Colorado? Let's see...

[backtored]

Here are the first numbers from Colorado's all-mail election.  These are ballots received.

R: 12,766 (46.2%)
D: 8,714 (31.5%)
U: 5,864 (21.2%)

Not bad so far.  Here are a couple of things to remember.

1.) This is really, really, really early.  This is only the first day of reporting.  The numbers will start to become much more interesting towards the end of the next week.  

2.) Unaffiliated voters will lag Republicans and Democrats and won't even come close to either until very close to Election Day.  They really have to be cajoled to get ballots back.

3.) Denver County is always slow to report, so perhaps the Democratic numbers are lagging a little simply because of slow reporting.  Nevertheless, it is safe to say that the GOP has started with a nice lead.  

4.) BUT, it is only a start.  Republicans always start off quickly in Colorado mail-in balloting.  The question is whether Democrats can catch up.  In 2010 the GOP finished with something like a 7-point advantage, and if they get that again I suspect they'll take both big statewide races.  

5.) In the 2013 tax-hike vote, using all-mail balloting, Democrats kept promising that a big turnout machine would help win that election.  They had a roughly 20 to 1 spending advantage and most of that went into ground game.  Yet it never materialized.  Still Republicans maintained a turnout edge. So spending a lot of money on GOTV is by no means a guarantee of even noticeably boosting turnout.  The tax hike, by the way, supported quite furiously by Governor Hickenlooper, lost by a 2 to 1 margin.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here are the first numbers from Colorado's all-mail election.  These are ballots received.

R: 12,766 (46.2%)
D: 8,714 (31.5%)
U: 5,864 (21.2%)

Not bad so far.  Here are a couple of things to remember.

1.) This is really, really, really early.  This is only the first day of reporting.  The numbers will start to become much more interesting towards the end of the next week. 

2.) Unaffiliated voters will lag Republicans and Democrats and won't even come close to either until very close to Election Day.  They really have to be cajoled to get ballots back.

3.) Denver County is always slow to report, so perhaps the Democratic numbers are lagging a little simply because of slow reporting.  Nevertheless, it is safe to say that the GOP has started with a nice lead. 

4.) BUT, it is only a start.  Republicans always start off quickly in Colorado mail-in balloting.  The question is whether Democrats can catch up.  In 2010 the GOP finished with something like a 7-point advantage, and if they get that again I suspect they'll take both big statewide races. 

5.) In the 2013 tax-hike vote, using all-mail balloting, Democrats kept promising that a big turnout machine would help win that election.  They had a roughly 20 to 1 spending advantage and most of that went into ground game.  Yet it never materialized.  Still Republicans maintained turnout edge.  So spending a lot of money on a ground is by no means a guarantee of upping turnout.  The tax hike, by the way, supported quite furiously by Hickenlooper, lost by a 2 to 1 margin.

1. Agreed
2. Fair enough, but if that's true, won't we not really know much until very close to election day?
3. "A little slow" seems like a bit of an understatement, there were like 94 Democrats who'd returned ballots in Denver and Boulder also had fairly low turnout.  I don't think there are enough votes in certain key areas to say that the Republicans have "a nice early lead."
4. Probably so
5. That's a completely different situation, surely we can all agree it is far more difficult to motivate voters to show up for for off-off-year ballot initiatives than it is for mid-terms when there are multiple high-profile competitive races on the ballot.

[backtored]

Here are the first numbers from Colorado's all-mail election.  These are ballots received.

R: 12,766 (46.2%)
D: 8,714 (31.5%)
U: 5,864 (21.2%)

Not bad so far.  Here are a couple of things to remember.

1.) This is really, really, really early.  This is only the first day of reporting.  The numbers will start to become much more interesting towards the end of the next week. 

2.) Unaffiliated voters will lag Republicans and Democrats and won't even come close to either until very close to Election Day.  They really have to be cajoled to get ballots back.

3.) Denver County is always slow to report, so perhaps the Democratic numbers are lagging a little simply because of slow reporting.  Nevertheless, it is safe to say that the GOP has started with a nice lead. 

4.) BUT, it is only a start.  Republicans always start off quickly in Colorado mail-in balloting.  The question is whether Democrats can catch up.  In 2010 the GOP finished with something like a 7-point advantage, and if they get that again I suspect they'll take both big statewide races. 

5.) In the 2013 tax-hike vote, using all-mail balloting, Democrats kept promising that a big turnout machine would help win that election.  They had a roughly 20 to 1 spending advantage and most of that went into ground game.  Yet it never materialized.  Still Republicans maintained turnout edge.  So spending a lot of money on a ground is by no means a guarantee of upping turnout.  The tax hike, by the way, supported quite furiously by Hickenlooper, lost by a 2 to 1 margin.

1. Agreed
2. Fair enough, but if that's true, won't we not really know much until very close to election day?
3. "A little slow" seems like a bit of an understatement, there were like 94 Democrats who'd returned ballots in Denver and Boulder also had fairly low turnout.  I don't think there are enough votes in certain key areas to say that the Republicans have "a nice early lead."
4. Probably so
5. That's a completely different situation, surely we can all agree it is far more difficult to motivate voters to show up for for off-off-year ballot initiatives than it is for mid-terms when there are multiple high-profile competitive races on the ballot.

I agree especially with #5. 

Even with expected returns from Denver and Boulder, the GOP will still have an almost double-digit lead.  It is notable that Republicans also have leads in Jefferson and Arapahoe counties, where turnout often mirrors statewide turnout.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Jefferson County has had its own issues lately with the Tea Party school board.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here are the first numbers from Colorado's all-mail election.  These are ballots received.

R: 12,766 (46.2%)
D: 8,714 (31.5%)
U: 5,864 (21.2%)

Not bad so far.  Here are a couple of things to remember.

1.) This is really, really, really early.  This is only the first day of reporting.  The numbers will start to become much more interesting towards the end of the next week. 

2.) Unaffiliated voters will lag Republicans and Democrats and won't even come close to either until very close to Election Day.  They really have to be cajoled to get ballots back.

3.) Denver County is always slow to report, so perhaps the Democratic numbers are lagging a little simply because of slow reporting.  Nevertheless, it is safe to say that the GOP has started with a nice lead. 

4.) BUT, it is only a start.  Republicans always start off quickly in Colorado mail-in balloting.  The question is whether Democrats can catch up.  In 2010 the GOP finished with something like a 7-point advantage, and if they get that again I suspect they'll take both big statewide races. 

5.) In the 2013 tax-hike vote, using all-mail balloting, Democrats kept promising that a big turnout machine would help win that election.  They had a roughly 20 to 1 spending advantage and most of that went into ground game.  Yet it never materialized.  Still Republicans maintained turnout edge.  So spending a lot of money on a ground is by no means a guarantee of upping turnout.  The tax hike, by the way, supported quite furiously by Hickenlooper, lost by a 2 to 1 margin.

1. Agreed
2. Fair enough, but if that's true, won't we not really know much until very close to election day?
3. "A little slow" seems like a bit of an understatement, there were like 94 Democrats who'd returned ballots in Denver and Boulder also had fairly low turnout.  I don't think there are enough votes in certain key areas to say that the Republicans have "a nice early lead."
4. Probably so
5. That's a completely different situation, surely we can all agree it is far more difficult to motivate voters to show up for for off-off-year ballot initiatives than it is for mid-terms when there are multiple high-profile competitive races on the ballot.

I agree especially with #5. 

Even with expected returns from Denver and Boulder, the GOP will still have an almost double-digit lead.  It is notable that Republicans also have leads in Jefferson and Arapahoe counties, where turnout often mirrors statewide turnout.

I did notice Jefferson in particular as a potential danger sign to keep an eye on, but my big takeaway from day one was that in Colorado as a while, Republicans who VBM tend to send in there ballots much earlier than Democrats.  The effect may be especially pronounced in a Denver or a Boulder because almost everyone is a Democrat (certainly in the former ), but it would still occur in Jefferson, Aprahoe, and even El Paso counties.  In other words, it isn't just Denver where Democrats should see their VBM numbers dramatically improve (by how much remains to be seen, o/c).  I don't think it is a given at this stage that Republicans will finish with a double-didgit VBM lead.