Will the 2016 GOP primary feature Flavor of the Month action?
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  Will the 2016 GOP primary feature Flavor of the Month action?
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Author Topic: Will the 2016 GOP primary feature Flavor of the Month action?  (Read 1048 times)
Yelnoc
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« on: October 17, 2014, 07:39:53 PM »

Remember last cycle, back when Romney was The Frontrunner and every month there'd be some Great Conservative Hope who rose in the polls only to crash and burn (often more than once)? Will 2016 have that same dynamic? If not, why not? Will the GOP lack a front runner through out? Will there be 2+ "strong" candidates (in relation to other primary candidates)? Perhaps some sillier sort of silly season?
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2014, 08:32:45 PM »

Probably. I'm looking forward to it.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2014, 09:53:06 PM »

It sort of already has; Haven't Rubio, Christie, Bush, Paul, Cruz, Ryan, Huckabee and Romney all led a national GOP poll within the past 2 years? But maybe you mean the alternating big leads Perry, Cain, Gingrich and Santorum had.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2014, 10:12:14 PM »

No, because they don't have an anointed one this time to constantly 2nd guess.   
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2014, 10:58:19 PM »

No, because they don't have an anointed one this time to constantly 2nd guess.   

For now.  But ~6 months from now, we'll know who's really running, and it's very possible that a frontrunner will materialize.  Whether there'll then be a rotating door of "alternative-to-so-and-so" remains to be seen.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2014, 01:20:29 AM »

If it's a slew of establishment candidates splitting one part of the vote and a slew of tea partiers splitting the other half, then no. However, if we see 1-3 candidate(s) rise above the rest of the field, and a desire by enough of the party to find the alternative to those candidate(s), then we will again see the 'flavor of the month' sequence.

As far as I can remember, 2012's 'flavor of the month' sequence was something like this:

Huckabee
Pawlenty
Bachmann
Perry
Cain
Gingrich
Santorum
Gingrich (again)
Santorum (again)


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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2014, 01:22:54 AM »

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

Truly a wonderful graph! I can't wait for the Republican primary. Smiley
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2014, 09:04:28 PM »

If it's a slew of establishment candidates splitting one part of the vote and a slew of tea partiers splitting the other half, then no. However, if we see 1-3 candidate(s) rise above the rest of the field, and a desire by enough of the party to find the alternative to those candidate(s), then we will again see the 'flavor of the month' sequence.

As far as I can remember, 2012's 'flavor of the month' sequence was something like this:

Huckabee
Pawlenty
Bachmann
Perry
Cain
Gingrich
Santorum
Gingrich (again)
Santorum (again)

Pawlenty was never flavor of the month. Why do Pawlenty people insist on lying so much?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2014, 09:10:51 PM »

If it's a slew of establishment candidates splitting one part of the vote and a slew of tea partiers splitting the other half, then no. However, if we see 1-3 candidate(s) rise above the rest of the field, and a desire by enough of the party to find the alternative to those candidate(s), then we will again see the 'flavor of the month' sequence.

As far as I can remember, 2012's 'flavor of the month' sequence was something like this:

Huckabee
Pawlenty
Bachmann
Perry
Cain
Gingrich
Santorum
Gingrich (again)
Santorum (again)

Pawlenty was never flavor of the month. Why do Pawlenty people insist on lying so much?

He was for the media. Tongue
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2014, 11:36:11 PM »

Gingrich won't run this time, mercifully.

The Clown Prince of the Republican Party, Santorum, will make another futile effort. 
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2014, 08:08:57 AM »

I sure hope the debates turn into a reality show again.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2014, 08:47:27 AM »

If it's a slew of establishment candidates splitting one part of the vote and a slew of tea partiers splitting the other half, then no. However, if we see 1-3 candidate(s) rise above the rest of the field, and a desire by enough of the party to find the alternative to those candidate(s), then we will again see the 'flavor of the month' sequence.

As far as I can remember, 2012's 'flavor of the month' sequence was something like this:

Huckabee
Pawlenty
Bachmann
Perry
Cain
Gingrich
Santorum
Gingrich (again)
Santorum (again)

Pawlenty was never flavor of the month. Why do Pawlenty people insist on lying so much?

He was in May of 2011, until his "Obamneycare" comment.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2014, 10:51:01 AM »

Gingrich won't run this time, mercifully.

The Clown Prince of the Republican Party, Santorum, will make another futile effort. 

Is there anyone on Earth who likes Rick Santorum?  LOL
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IceSpear
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« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2014, 12:52:58 PM »

Gingrich won't run this time, mercifully.

The Clown Prince of the Republican Party, Santorum, will make another futile effort. 

Is there anyone on Earth who likes Rick Santorum?  LOL

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=701
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Bacon King
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« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2014, 02:31:59 PM »

For 2012, eleven people led in multiple nationwide GOP primary polls:

Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Newt Gingrich, Chris Christie, Donald Trump, Rick Perry, Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Santorum

So far in 2016 polling, we've already had nine different people do this (including four of the same people from last time) and we're still over a year away from the Iowa Caucus!

Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Ted Cruz

If anything, this Republican Primary will be even more exciting and turbulent than the last one. Also my money is on Bobby Jindal to be the Huckabee/Santorum of this cycle, where he's stuck in the single digits but ends up surging into the spotlight thanks to an excellent ground game in Iowa
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2014, 10:12:20 PM »

For 2012, eleven people led in multiple nationwide GOP primary polls:

Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Newt Gingrich, Chris Christie, Donald Trump, Rick Perry, Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Santorum

So far in 2016 polling, we've already had nine different people do this (including four of the same people from last time) and we're still over a year away from the Iowa Caucus!

Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Ted Cruz

If anything, this Republican Primary will be even more exciting and turbulent than the last one. Also my money is on Bobby Jindal to be the Huckabee/Santorum of this cycle, where he's stuck in the single digits but ends up surging into the spotlight thanks to an excellent ground game in Iowa

Are there already indications Jindal is building a strong ground game in Iowa, or is that a gut feeling?
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #16 on: October 20, 2014, 10:14:09 PM »

Gingrich won't run this time, mercifully.

The Clown Prince of the Republican Party, Santorum, will make another futile effort. 

Is there anyone on Earth who likes Rick Santorum?  LOL

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=701
Well, besides him and the tea party?
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anvi
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« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2014, 10:21:17 PM »

To slightly modify BK's list above, if these are the main people in the running--

Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, Mike Huckabee, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum

--then I think Paul, Christie and Rubio will be the guys to beat.  Bush is just not going to get very far given that father and brother have already been prez, Perry is a joke, Jindal won't campaign well, Huckabee will embarrass himself right out of the race, Ryan won't ever get much traction, Cruz will embarrass himself, and Santorum, though he might be the conservative standard-bearer the longest, won't get nominated in the end.  Actually, that campaign will be pretty interesting, with Santorum and Paul going at each other, and Christie and Rubio fighting for broader appeal among different cross-sections of a generally uncertain nominating crowd.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #18 on: October 21, 2014, 12:48:25 PM »

The problem with 2016 was that the Not-Romneys were deeply flawed. Once Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich were under more scrutiny, their campaigns were doomed.

2016 may be a different environment, with individuals who are broadly acceptable to the base and don't have major skeletons. There are a few potential candidates who could easily dominate by this time next year. There can be a feedback loop for a Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, or Mike Pence as a good speech can lead to slight improvements in poll numbers which lead to good publicity which leads to a higher poll numbers as more primary voters get comfortable with the frontrunner.

A complicating factor is that there are potential candidates who could easily get significant support by would also face significant opposition from the base of the establishment. This would include Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and Chris Christie, But that could result in a different kind of race with several strong candidates running against one another rather than the consistent rise and fall of alternatives to the frontrunner.
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