CO-Mellman (D): Udall+3 in internal

[DrScholl]

Mellman was the only one to get Reid's victory right in 2010.

Exactly.

Yes. Therefore this specific internal poll 4 years later in a different state with a different set of candidates is most likely correct ... because math and science. And because Gardner is an extreme extremisty extremist. Abortion!

5150 time. Please, calm down, no one likes overly dramatic posts. Again, I'm standing by my predictions, thanks.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Mellman was the only one to get Reid's victory right in 2010.

Exactly.

Yes. Therefore this specific internal poll 4 years later in a different state with a different set of candidates is most likely correct ... because math and science. And because Gardner is an extreme extremisty extremist. Abortion!

5150 time. Please, calm down, no one likes overly dramatic posts. Again, I'm standing by my predictions, thanks.

The 5150 meme is getting really, really old. Did you just figure it out today? Because your giving KC Spanking Dem a run for his money.

[DrScholl]

Mellman was the only one to get Reid's victory right in 2010.

Exactly.

Yes. Therefore this specific internal poll 4 years later in a different state with a different set of candidates is most likely correct ... because math and science. And because Gardner is an extreme extremisty extremist. Abortion!

5150 time. Please, calm down, no one likes overly dramatic posts. Again, I'm standing by my predictions, thanks.

The 5150 meme is getting really, really old. Did you just figure it out today? Because your giving KC Spanking Dem a run for his money.

You are on my ignore list, so stop posting to me. It's annoying.

[JRP1994]

Nice to know Gardner is up 3.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Mellman was the only one to get Reid's victory right in 2010.

Exactly.

Yes. Therefore this specific internal poll 4 years later in a different state with a different set of candidates is most likely correct ... because math and science. And because Gardner is an extreme extremisty extremist. Abortion!

5150 time. Please, calm down, no one likes overly dramatic posts. Again, I'm standing by my predictions, thanks.

The 5150 meme is getting really, really old. Did you just figure it out today? Because your giving KC Spanking Dem a run for his money.

You are on my ignore list, so stop posting to me. It's annoying.

If I am on your ignore list, you could be a reasonable person, and you know, ignore me.

Somebody better 5150 you if your this sensitive.

[Antonio the Sixth]

5150? What the hell does that mean?

[DrScholl]

5150? What the hell does that mean?

Involuntary psychiatric hold. It's only a joke, not meant to be taken seriously.

[Matty]

Mellman is getting it right by choosing to poll hispanics. Quinnipaic, rassmussen, etc are NOT choosing to poll hispanic voters. It drives me insane.

[Person Man]

5150? What the hell does that mean?

Involuntary psychiatric hold. It's only a joke, not meant to be taken seriously.

I just know it as Baker Acting.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Mellman is getting it right by choosing to poll hispanics. Quinnipaic, rassmussen, etc are NOT choosing to poll hispanic voters. It drives me insane.

Oh, please. Do you really think quinnipiac, susa, ppp are all choosing to poll no hispanics at all?

Every single internal poll on both sides is skewed, at least a little, to favor the candidate it's conducted for, and shouldn't be trusted. Simple fact.

[Maxwell]

Mellman was the only one to get Reid's victory right in 2010.

This isn't Nevada though. Nor is it 2010. Citing one right answer doesn't make them automatically more reliable than all of the other reliable pollsters that put Gardner ahead.

[Miles]

Mellman was the only one to get Reid's victory right in 2010.

This isn't Nevada though. Nor is it 2010. Citing one right answer doesn't make them automatically more reliable than all of the other reliable pollsters that put Gardner ahead.

FWIW, Mellman got Heitkamp's win right as well.

[windjammer]

This is an internal.

I indeed believe Udall will win, but not by 3, and polls should give gardner the edge right now: Udall should be saved by a higher expected turnout.

[Maxwell]

Mellman was the only one to get Reid's victory right in 2010.

This isn't Nevada though. Nor is it 2010. Citing one right answer doesn't make them automatically more reliable than all of the other reliable pollsters that put Gardner ahead.

FWIW, Mellman got Heitkamp's win right as well.

I actually can't find Mellman's North Dakota. But either way, Nevada and this Colorado race are entirely different situations. If there is a couple more head-on situations, I guess this could go along with legitimate polls, but that doesn't mean we should dismiss all the other legitimate polls.

On the subject of North Dakota, Pharos Research got it right in an earlier poll (49-48 Heitkamp), but it was also within margin-of-error for Mason-Dixon, even if their poll was 47-45 Berg.

[SPC]

Mellman was the only one to get Reid's victory right in 2010.

This isn't Nevada though. Nor is it 2010. Citing one right answer doesn't make them automatically more reliable than all of the other reliable pollsters that put Gardner ahead.

FWIW, Mellman got Heitkamp's win right as well.

Mellman was also the only pollster to call Shelley Berkeley's win.

[DrScholl]

http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/elections/political-eye-pollster-tracked-berkleys-ups-downs

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[SPC]

http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/elections/political-eye-pollster-tracked-berkleys-ups-downs

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Interesting that she did not choose to publicly release those internal polls showing her behind, instead publicly releasing polls showing her with a three-point lead. Will we hear after the election that Udall's internals privately showed him trailing as well?

[moderatevoter]

http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/elections/political-eye-pollster-tracked-berkleys-ups-downs

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Interesting that she did not choose to publicly release those internal polls showing her behind, instead publicly releasing polls showing her with a three-point lead. Will we hear after the election that Udall's internals privately showed him trailing as well?

Link.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[SPC]

Mellman was the only one to get Reid's victory right in 2010.

This isn't Nevada though. Nor is it 2010. Citing one right answer doesn't make them automatically more reliable than all of the other reliable pollsters that put Gardner ahead.

FWIW, Mellman got Heitkamp's win right as well.

Mellman was also the only pollster to call Shelley Berkeley's win.

What were Mellman's results for NV? Even if they had Berkley winning by 1 point, they were closer to the end result than the other pollsters which had Heller up 3-5 points.

As the link showed, the poll that Berkeley chose to release had her up by 3 points, which was further from the actual result than PPP or Marist were (albeit barely closer than SurveyUSA)

[IceSpear]

Mellman was the only one to get Reid's victory right in 2010.

This isn't Nevada though. Nor is it 2010. Citing one right answer doesn't make them automatically more reliable than all of the other reliable pollsters that put Gardner ahead.

FWIW, Mellman got Heitkamp's win right as well.

Mellman was also the only pollster to call Shelley Berkeley's win.

What were Mellman's results for NV? Even if they had Berkley winning by 1 point, they were closer to the end result than the other pollsters which had Heller up 3-5 points.

As the link showed, the poll that Berkeley chose to release had her up by 3 points, which was further from the actual result than PPP or Marist were (albeit barely closer than SurveyUSA)

Yeah, I deleted it once I saw the link.

[chrisras]

It's never a good sign when campaigns start releasing internal polls.  It's a sign that the candidate is going to lose.  That's what always happens.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Mellman was the third most accurate pollster in 2012...

D internal tho toss it!

[Boston Bread]

It's never a good sign when campaigns start releasing internal polls.  It's a sign that the candidate is going to lose.  That's what always happens.

Mellman had an R+0.0 bias in 2012.
fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race (can't post links, sorry)
If you have the impression that partisan pollsters are trash, that impression comes from all the trashy R pollsters.

[DrScholl]

http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/elections/political-eye-pollster-tracked-berkleys-ups-downs

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Interesting that she did not choose to publicly release those internal polls showing her behind, instead publicly releasing polls showing her with a three-point lead. Will we hear after the election that Udall's internals privately showed him trailing as well?

Read it again, they never publicly released any internals in the last couple of weeks, when Berkley was down 1-2 points consistently, as it wouldn't make sense to release polls with your candidate trailing. If the internals showed Berkley down 1-2 points in the last couple of weeks, that was very accurate to the actual result. The polls showing Berkley up were released earlier in the month, not right before the election.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/elections/political-eye-pollster-tracked-berkleys-ups-downs

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Interesting that she did not choose to publicly release those internal polls showing her behind, instead publicly releasing polls showing her with a three-point lead. Will we hear after the election that Udall's internals privately showed him trailing as well?

Read it again, they never publicly released any internals in the last couple of weeks, when Berkley was down 1-2 points consistently, as it wouldn't make sense to release polls with your candidate trailing.

And that's a big part of why you can't trust internals. Candidates have their pollsters take tons of different polls at varying times with varying sample sizes and 'push' questions, and then release the one they like the best regardless of its validity.

Public Pollsters, on the other hand, release every poll they take, not just the ones they personally like the results of.