Republican pollster: Don't underestimate Dem turnout machine

[IceSpear]

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http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/18/us/politics/midterm-elections-neil-newhouse-republicans-senate-polls.html?ref=politics&_r=0

The last line is very important, considering how much some LV screens rely on "voter enthusiasm".

[Mehmentum]

I'm skeptical of his skepticism.

[Maxwell]

Absolutely right. That's probably why the 2014 polling drop compared to 2012 hasn't been nearly as drastic as the one for 2010. I have no doubts that Dems can probably win a good number of margin-of-error races (Iowa, Colorado, Kansas for example).

[Ljube]

Iowa and Colorado - yes, but Kansas - no.

[bedstuy]

It's a variable in states that have strong Democratic parties and a track record of out performing polling averages.  Iowa and Colorado fall into that category.  However, in states like Georgia, Kentucky and Alaska, you basically do the opposite calculation.  Democrats haven't proven that they know how to win competitive elections in those states.

The other major variable is the question of the reliability of polling.  There seem to be standout polls like the Pew National poll, the DMR poll in Iowa, but 2012 was a somewhat spotty year for polling.  Many statewide polls underestimated Obama's strength, possibly because of cell phones and reliance on inaccurate likely voter screens.  On top of that, midterms polling actually tend to be even more inaccurate than presidential year polling.  But again, that cuts both ways.  For all we know, the polling is skewed in favor of Democrats and there's going to be extremely low turnout among key Democratic groups. 

That's the basic problem with looking at these subjective factors, for every factor you can cite on one side, there's a factor cutting the other way.  That's why polling is generally the best indicator, it's objective.  We can cross our fingers and hope, but ultimately, without really solid evidence backing us up, we're just like a more informed, rational version of Dick Morris. 

[DrScholl]

There are lots of voters who vote Democratic (Democrats and Independents) that really don't decide to vote until the last minute, which is why you have phone banking non-stop in the final weeks.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Iowa and Colorado - yes, but Kansas - no.

I'm starting to think it could split evenly where the purple states go Democratic and the hardcore red states go Republican. Control of the Senate rests on moderately purple Georgia.