Which state would Hillary win by the largest margin (in the general election)?

[TDAS04]

Well?

[IceSpear]

New York. NY was Obama's third best state (behind Hawaii and Vermont), but they'll both get more Republican in 2012, the former due to Obama's home state effect and the latter due to the "muh neoliberal warmonger" sentiment. Conversely, Hillary will probably slightly improve from Obama's margin in NY due to the home state bonus.

[ElectionsGuy]

Vermont, of course

[Consciously Unconscious]

New York due to home state bones, but possibly Vermont. 

[eric82oslo]

I think New York, though Hawaii is a more likely answer than Vermont! Hillary is like a perfect fit for Hawaii! She is anything but a perfect fit for Vermont!

[BaconBacon96]

I'd say New York.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Vermont, of course

Very much disagree.  I'll go with NY.

[Mr. Smith]

It's either New York, California, or Illinois...couldn't decide which so I put Other

[© tweed]

NY has a built-in demographic ceiling that makes anything much greater than 2:1 hard to imagine.  Vermont and Hawaii don't.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I'll go with Vermont.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

New York. NY was Obama's third best state (behind Hawaii and Vermont), but they'll both get more Republican in 2012, the former due to Obama's home state effect and the latter due to the "muh neoliberal warmonger" sentiment. Conversely, Hillary will probably slightly improve from Obama's margin in NY due to the home state bonus.

This. Obama had a birth state advantage in Hawaii, and Hillary as the nominee will help liberal third parties do better than normal in Vermont. No, that won't include Sanders. If Paul is the nominee, the margin won't be anywhere near the largest, although it'd still be safe Hillary.

[ElectionsGuy]

Guys, why would Vermont vote more republican just because Hillary is less progressive? If anything the surge of liberalness in Vermont is due to backlash of the modern GOP.

[IceSpear]

Guys, why would Vermont vote more republican just because Hillary is less progressive? If anything the surge of liberalness in Vermont is due to backlash of the modern GOP.

Obama won VT by 36 points, he won NY by 28 points. Let's just say Hillary improves her margin in NY to 31 points due to the home state bonus. At that point, it would only take a few percent going Green Party in VT (which for some reason wasn't on the ballot in 2012), and perhaps an even smaller amount voting Republican because "even RepubliKKKans are better than Hillary!" in order to give Hillary a better margin in NY. Some people might stay home as well which could artifically increase the Republican margin.

[MATTROSE94]

Probably New York, as I can see Hillary Clinton potentially getting in the low 60s (around 67 or 68%) in New York due to her home state effect. In addition, if the Republicans nominate a more moderate candidate (i.e. Chris Christie, Jeb Bush or Jon Huntsman), I could see Vermont trend slightly towards the Republicans (i.e. instead of the Republicans getting 33% of the vote, they might get closer to 35 or 36%).

[Suburbia]

New York, most likely.

[Nichlemn]

I picked Rhode Island. NY had a bit of a Sandy effect in 2012 and I don't think Hillary would have a particularly big home state bump, being a relative newcomer to the state and having represented it for only eight years. Rhode Island is traditionally a few points more Democratic, and has a more "traditional" working class/slightly socially conservative electorate that favours Clinton. Clinton won it by 18 points over Obama in 2008, which was slightly more than her margin in NY. I believe it was her highest margin in any blue state.

[TDAS04]

I picked Rhode Island. NY had a bit of a Sandy effect in 2012 and I don't think Hillary would have a particularly big home state bump, being a relative newcomer to the state and having represented it for only eight years. Rhode Island is traditionally a few points more Democratic, and has a more "traditional" working class/slightly socially conservative electorate that favours Clinton. Clinton won it by 18 points over Obama in 2008, which was slightly more than her margin in NY. I believe it was her highest margin in any blue state.

I voted Rhode Island too.  Clinton is a better fit for Rhode Island than Vermont, and it's much more elastic than New York.  While I could see Hawaii could as Clinton's best state, Obama had a clear home state advantage there.

Fun fact:  Rhode Island was one of only two states where Hillary carried every county during the 2008 primaries (the other was West Virginia).

[andrew_c]

New York due to a home state effect.  70% vote share seems quite plausible there.

[Mister Mets]

Vermont.

It was Obama's second-best state in 2008 and 2012.

I expect Hawaii's margin to decline without the home-state advantage of Obama.

I suspect HRC's home-state advantage in New York will be minimized by the size of the state, and her associations with other regions. Obama was also boosted by a positive response to Hurricane Sandy, as well as high African-American turnout.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

New York due to a home state effect.  70% vote share seems quite plausible there.

I could see a 2012 Kirsten Gillibrand 2.0.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

New York due to a home state effect.  70% vote share seems quite plausible there.

I could see a 2012 Kirsten Gillibrand 2.0.

It should be noted that Wendy Long, Gillibrand's 2012 opponent, was a terrible candidate. Unless the republican nominee is of Carson/Palin caliber, Hillary's not going to match Gillibrand's 72% 2012 showing in 2016.

[Skill and Chance]

I'd actually entertain Massachusetts, because the GOP literally doesn't have a floor there and it has a lot of the working class moderate left that was hesitant about Obama.  NY should be comparable to 2012 due to the Sandy boost, and I also think Vermont will fall off.  RI is hard to read.  I would think it would be trending rapidly right in this social-issue heavy environment, but it didn't do that in 2012.

[DS0816]

The states typically getting carried with the highest percentage margin are ones with single-digit electoral votes.


Let's look at the last ten U.S. presidential election of 1976 to 2012.


1976
Gerald Ford (R): Utah (4), R+28.79
* Jimmy Carter (D, pickup): Georgia (13), D+33.78

1980
* Ronald Reagan (R, pickup): Utah (4), R+52.20
Jimmy Carter (D): Georgia (13), D+14.81

1984
* Ronald Reagan (R): Utah (5), R+49.83
Walter Mondale (D): Minnesota (10), D+0.18

1988
* George Bush (R): Utah (5), R+34.17
Michael Dukakis (D): Rhode Island (4), D+11.71

1992
George Bush (R): Utah (5), R+16.02
* Bill Clinton (D, pickup): Massachusetts (12), D+18.52

1996
Bob Dole (R): Utah (5), R+21.07
* Bill Clinton (D): Massachusetts (12), D+33.39

2000
* George W. Bush (R, pickup): Utah (5), R+40.49
Al Gore (D): Rhode Island (4), D+29.08

2004
* George W. Bush (R): Utah (5), R+45.54
John Kerry (D): Massachusetts (12), D+25.16

2008
John McCain (R): Wyoming (3), R+32.24
* Barack Obama (D, pickup): Hawaii (4), D+45.26

2012
Mitt Romney (R): Utah (6), R+47.88
* Barack Obama (D): Hawaii (4), D+42.71


In all cases in which Democrats carried a double-digit electoral vote state as their best-performing, the runners-up were single-digit states. They were commonly Rhode Island. For Jimmy Carter, that was true in 1980. When he was the Democratic pickup winner, from 1976, who unseated Republican president Gerald Ford, the 39th president's top runner-up state was single-digit Arkansas. And, of course, we know about the 1984 election with Walter Mondale, which is not a good example in all this.

[DS0816]

New York due to a home state effect.  70% vote share seems quite plausible there.

In 2012, the presidential votes cast from the state of New York totaled 7,081,536.

Using that same amount for 2016, with a presidential-winning Hillary Clinton carrying 70 percent of the statewide vote, her total raw vote would be 4,957,075.

Her losing Republican challenger would receive 6.65 percent less that 2012's losing Republican Mitt Romney. (That's because the re-elected Obama carried the state with 63.35 percent.)

The losing 2016 Republican would get 2,019,564 raw votes from the state of New York.

Hillary Clinton would carry New York by 2,937,511 raw votes.

A 2012 Barack Obama carried the state of New York by 1,995,381 votes.

This 70 percent of the vote, for Hillary Clinton in 2016 New York, would be an additional Democratic shift of 942,130 raw votes.

That's very impressive.

If that were happening in 2016 New York, I'd like to know what else is going on throughout the U.S.

[SWE]

Vermont.