Are Unreleased internals dictating Triages?

[GaussLaw]

It seems like a lot of races that seem competitive, like ME-02, Coffman's seat, etc. are getting triaged even though public polls show a close race. 

So are there a bunch of unreleased internals or something that are causing these ratings changes/triages?  I'm just curious what's going on.

[Miles]

I've heard that campaign internals are often more accurate than public polls; only the most favorable internals are ever advertised though. That may have something to do with it.

[Bacon King]

My understanding is that campaign internals can tailor their questions to determine specifically if their own strategy goals are being met - e.g.: does Big Budget Attack Ad sufficiently sway Target Group A to support the candidate? Is Target Group B motivated enough about voting that the campaign's GOTV effort will be effective? Is the ground game in Region A swaying the votes it needs to?

I think a triage happens when the results of such questions demonstrate that the campaign's overall path to victory is essentially untenable. Especially when it's late enough that they don't have the time/resources/etc to reformulate a brand new game plan from scratch.

So yeah I think there's a lot more to it than "my poll is super accurate and we are down three points oh no abandon ship everyone!!"

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I've heard that campaign internals are often more accurate than public polls; only the most favorable internals are ever advertised though. That may have something to do with it.

They're not infallible. In 2006, the DCCC and DNC decided after their preferred candidate lost the primary to Shea-Porter that it was hopeless to waste any resources on a lost cause like her. She won anyways.