October 2014 Election Predictions/Discussion

[Talleyrand]

There hasn't been much discussion this particular election cycle so I thought I'd go ahead and make this thread and poll.

I didn't include IDS Senate and PAC Senate because it appears Yankee and Cranberry are going unopposed.

[Flake]

Lumine, Bore, TNF, and ... the Mideast is hard to say... I'm going to go with windjammer.

[LeBron]

Presidential Race - Likely Lumine, Federalist Pickup (Any disgruntled Laborites will come home to Marokai, but Lumine's too strong of a candidate plus the anti-Labor wave as of late won't be enough to overcome, unfortunately).

NE Senate - Lean Bore, Labor hold (Labor still has a slight registration advantage here + Senator Bore's been running a very strong campaign).

MW Senate - Tossup/Tilt TNF, Labor hold  (Cris is much stronger than RR1997 was of a challenger, but TNF has a very slight advantage from the always underestimated Labor turnout here).

ME Senate - Lean Cassius, Federalist hold  (Windjammer could pull a Weiland-like upset, but he would need good Labor turnout plus a good # of DR 2nd preferences to beat Cassius. There will be a lot of zombie Feds who will come out to vote for Cassius, so I give him the advantage).

The way it's looking now, the Senate balance of power will remain the same after the elections.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm fairly optimistic about a Labor sweep in the Senate.

[SWE]

In decreasing order of likelihood:

TNF
bore
Lumine
Cassius

The Mideast is really the only tossup, but I'll play it safe and bet on the incumbent

[Cranberry]

I guess the Presidential race is, barring some unforeseeable surprises coming up just before the election, quite safe for Lumine. He has constantly been polling in the mid-forties, can I guess count with nearly total support from the Federalists and TPP, and will in the second round get probably unanimous support from the Poirot /Shua camp. All in all, Lumine probably is just too strong a candidate; being successful in just staying calm and in staying the background and in the Senate. Marokai / Antonio would be a great ticket for another time, but now the Atlasian electorate will just don't buy anything with the label "Labor" on it... I guess they will get into the second round, but there they will receive support from no one - Poirot voters will flock to the Lumine camp, and I am sure a great deal of Al / Hash voters will see their votes exhausted than vote for Labor. So a Lumine / Federalists Win

The Northeast Senate Race is quite at an edge, but as usual, one is safer when betting on Bore. Bore is probably after Lumine the single most un-controversial and favourably viewed Senator, and he has done an excellent job, even though his "ranking" in the Senate has by now changed from being the "middle ground" Senator, the one with the swing vote, to being the second remaining Laborite in that chamber, so quite on the left. Matt is a strong and interesting candidate, but especially of late the momentum has continued to rise on Bore's side, and one might never, not even now, forget the influence the Labor machine can have. I'll stay with the safer option, a Bore / Labor Win

Cris surely is a stronger candidate than RR1997 was four months ago, and even he proved quite a challenge for TNF. Labor's ideological mastermind, the impersonation of that very party in the public eye (together with Griffin of course, but never mind), has a hard path for reelection in front of him, that much is for sure. For now, I do not trust myself to be able to really say who is going to win this seat, but in the end, I would not be totally surprised with Cris securing the Federalists the Midwestern Senate Seat. This race for me however is a pure Toss-Up

A interesting race indeed, the Mideast Senate Race will surely turn out to be quite unforeseeable just a month ago. The entry of Windjammer and Bmotley surely had shaken up the race, but in the end, this will be a second round Cassius win. The first round might be a shoulder-to-shoulder contest between all three candidates, although I expect Windy and Cassius to perform stronger than Bmotley; the second round will be quite a piece of cake for Cassius, as Bmotley supporters will nearly unanimously vote for the Federalist Cassius over Labor's soldier Windjammer. Even in the unlikely event that Cassius should get the least number of votes in the first round, I cannot figure out a scenario in which Windjammer will receive enough support from Federalists to supreme over Bmotley in the second round. In any way, this for me is quite a safe Cassius / Federalist Win.

[windjammer]

Cassius will probably win.

[Oakvale]

If you look at the numbers in the Midwest, it's actually near-mathematically impossible for Cris to beat TNF, despite being a strong candidate. This is, hilariously, partly due to long-time TNF nemesis Simfan recruiting a bunch of right-wingers from the region and turning it from at least nominally competitive to in a sense the safest Labor seat.

The Midwest is also, staggeringly, competitive, where there's an outside chance that incumbent fascist nutjob Senator Cassius might lose to Windjammer through a combination of Windjammer retaining wide popularity and respect despite his association with the DemPGH legacy and one of the world's least subtle recruitment campaigns. Still, it's hard to read the (possible) competitiveness as anything other than an indictment of the traditional conservative opposition. I expect Cassius to hold on but I wouldn't be shocked if it went otherwise.

The other races will go as expected.