NH-01/NH-02-YouGov: Shea-Porter up 17, Garcia up 5
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 23, 2024, 01:51:07 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  2014 House Election Polls
  NH-01/NH-02-YouGov: Shea-Porter up 17, Garcia up 5		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: NH-01/NH-02-YouGov: Shea-Porter up 17, Garcia up 5  (Read 858 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 20, 2014, 11:11:15 PM »
http://www.umass.edu/poll/pdfs/20141020_Toplines.pdf

Shea-Porter 54
Guinta 37

Garcia 48
Kuster 43

Yes, these are not typos. >YouGov
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2014, 11:11:49 PM »
Guys, I give up trying to figure out NH polls or NH politics in general. Let the chips fall where they may in two weeks.
Logged
free my dawg
SawxDem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,144
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2014, 11:13:33 PM »
i'm sorry what the christ am i reading
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,936


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2014, 11:40:48 PM »
Junk poll! (Seriously: the sample sizes are ~160 respondents.)

It would rule pretty hard if Shea-Porter won by 17 points. Obviously not happening though.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,325
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2014, 11:41:53 PM »
What in the world...
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,637
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2014, 11:42:10 PM »
Junk poll!
Logged
Bacon King
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,833
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2014, 11:52:35 PM »
This is the second poll in a row with results like this and they agree with my own hunch of these two races. I don't really see what's so incredulous here.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2014, 11:57:40 PM »
Quote from: Bacon King on October 20, 2014, 11:52:35 PM
This is the second poll in a row with results like this and they agree with my own hunch of these two races. I don't really see what's so incredulous here.

A 17 point margin for Shea-Porter is pretty incredulous
Logged
tpfkaw
wormyguy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,118
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.58, S: 1.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2014, 11:57:44 PM »
The DCCC has bought a ton of (pretty effective) negative ads targeting Guinta, but I've seen no ads at all for the other race. These are believable.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2014, 12:03:15 AM »
Quote from: Bacon King on October 20, 2014, 11:52:35 PM
This is the second poll in a row with results like this and they agree with my own hunch of these two races. I don't really see what's so incredulous here.

Not quite...when Shea-Porter has been ahead, it was always by 3-4 points. 17 points is patently ridiculous.
Logged
Bacon King
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,833
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2014, 12:16:21 AM »
Quote from: IDS Emperor Maxwell on October 20, 2014, 11:57:40 PM
Quote from: Bacon King on October 20, 2014, 11:52:35 PM
This is the second poll in a row with results like this and they agree with my own hunch of these two races. I don't really see what's so incredulous here.

A 17 point margin for Shea-Porter is pretty incredulous

Admittedly the +3 margin in the UNH poll is probably closer to reality, my response is mostly aimed at the overall inredulity people are displaying about Garcia polling better than Guinta.
Logged
Recalcuate
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 444


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2014, 01:41:32 AM »
« Edited: October 22, 2014, 09:00:37 AM by Recalcuate »
Quote from: IceSpear on October 20, 2014, 11:11:15 PM
http://www.umass.edu/poll/pdfs/20141020_Toplines.pdf

Shea-Porter 54
Guinta 37

Garcia 48
Kuster 43

Yes, these are not typos. >YouGov

A poll with a sample size of 160 shouldn't be taken seriously. It was a subset poll of the larger Senate poll and is which was almost practically meaningless as well (320 respondents).
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,988
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2014, 11:37:30 AM »
NH-2 is a more democratic district, even the GOP barely won in 2010.
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,402
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2014, 02:39:05 PM »
Hard to believe - that being said I would rather take Garcia than Guinta.
Logged
Dixie Reborn
BeyondTruthAndIdeals
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 817
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2014, 02:42:24 PM »
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 21, 2014, 02:58:13 PM »
Quote from: All In For KC on October 21, 2014, 02:39:05 PM
Hard to believe - that being said I would rather take Garcia than Guinta.

I'll agree with that. Guinta is a corrupt bastard and I like Shea-Porter more than Kuster.
Logged
free my dawg
SawxDem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,144
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2014, 03:20:42 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on October 21, 2014, 02:58:13 PM
Quote from: All In For KC on October 21, 2014, 02:39:05 PM
Hard to believe - that being said I would rather take Garcia than Guinta.

I'll agree with that. Guinta is a corrupt bastard and I like Shea-Porter more than Kuster.
Logged
Mogrovejo
Rookie
**
Posts: 90
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2014, 08:29:09 AM »
Quote from: Bacon King on October 20, 2014, 11:52:35 PM
This is the second poll in a row with results like this and they agree with my own hunch of these two races. I don't really see what's so incredulous here.

Well, as others have said, this isn't really a poll.

In any case, a very good reason to be highly sceptic about a couple of polls showing the GOP doing better in NH-2: the NRCC is spending  $840K more in NH-01. Because they're spending exactly zero in NH-02.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2014, 09:59:02 AM »
New Hampshire is like New England's own little Alaska (the polls are crazy)
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.039 seconds with 15 queries.