Electoral College problems for Republicans

[Ljube]

Is this the only plausible victory that the Republicans can have in presidential elections? If so, they need a candidate that can carry Florida and Ohio (and Virginia and Iowa on top of that) with absolute certainty, or at least with better than 50% chance. Does a candidate like that exist?

[Slander and/or Libel]

Could be they could grab Colorado and be able to give up Iowa. Or maybe grab New Hampshire and Colorado and be able to give up Iowa OR Virginia. Or maybe they could grab Nevada and spread out their options a little bit further. But yeah, it looks like their possibilities are getting a bit more dire by the year.

[politicus]

I wouldn't rule out Wisconsin.

[Nichlemn]

Electoral math is a distraction from the issue of popular support. If Republicans win 51% of the popular vote, they're winning the EC the vast majority of the time and all the handwringing about "Electoral College problems" are for nought. FWIW, in such a scenario Republicans have strong shots at PA and CO as well as fair ones at NV, WI and NH.

[King]

Yes, but given their current minority struggles it requires them to win 64% of the white vote to achieve it in 2016. They cap about at around 62% there.

[Never]

I think a Republican can make it to 270 electoral votes, but I have my doubts that the victory will resemble the Bush 2004 map minus the Western swing states. Honestly, in a Republican win as close as the one OP is presenting, Virginia would probably remain Atlas red. I'd agree with Nchlemn who mentioned that Pennsylvania is a credible state for the GOP to focus on if the GOP has managed 51% of the popular vote.

This is what I see as a more likely narrow GOP victory:

[Ljube]

OK. I think we can agree that no Republican can win Nevada any more. Virginia is slipping.

So, who should be the Republican candidate in two years, who could win FL, OH and then 2 out of three PA, VA and IA?
CO is still in play, but not easily part of electoral calculus.

Another question: Can a Republican win in CO and PA and forfeit FL?

[Rockefeller GOP]

JMO, but this board severely overrates how loyal NH is to the Democratic Party.  It would go GOP in a favorable environment with a solid candidate.  A Republican ceiling right now (not counting a big landslide/unordinary candidates) still looks like this, IMO:

Now yes, this is a CEILING, but it's possible.  It's not likely, but presenting the OP as the "best the GOP can do" is way wrong.

[Ljube]

JMO, but this board severely overrates how loyal NH is to the Democratic Party.  It would go GOP in a favorable environment with a solid candidate.

NH has same day registration. So does Wisconsin. I think we can all agree there are more Democrats than Republicans in the country. Therefore, these two states are out of reach of the GOP in presidential years when the Democrats are willing to spend huge amounts on GOTV effort.


By the way, could you elaborate on your favorable environment and solid candidate?

[Mister Mets]

As Nichlem noted, the more important thing is popular support.

If Republicans win the popular vote by four points, they'll also have the electoral college.

There is a slight problem that the current EC may slightly favor Democrats. A uniform five point swing to Romney would have given him Ohio, Florida and Virginia, but he would have fallen just short in Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Iowa, allowing Obama to win the EC with 275 Electoral Votes while being over a point down in the popular vote. There are obviously other factors, especially considering how swing states are more elastic than the norm, so there is no uniform swing. Another Democrat might also do a little bit worse in key swing states.

Republicans have two small advantages which can matter in a close election.

Redistricting was better for conservative leaning states. McCain would have got 180 electoral votes rather than 173 with the same states and post-2010 electoral college values. George W Bush would have gotten 292 electoral votes rather than 286.

An electoral tie (which can happen if Republicans flip Florida, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire) favors the GOP, since the House determines the results and Republicans have a majority of congressional delegations.

[King]

JMO, but this board severely overrates how loyal NH is to the Democratic Party.  It would go GOP in a favorable environment with a solid candidate.  A Republican ceiling right now (not counting a big landslide/unordinary candidates) still looks like this, IMO:

Now yes, this is a CEILING, but it's possible.  It's not likely, but presenting the OP as the "best the GOP can do" is way wrong.

I agree on NH, but MN, PA and ME-02 are pipedreams. As a rule of thumb, I'd say if Bush could not win it in either 2000 or 2004, it is unattainable in 2016. (I include WI as a Bush 2004 win, he just never bothered to challenge the close result there.)

I'd also bring my state into the ceiling, because the factors that would surround NV and CO coming back into play-- Latinos coming back into the GOP fold like they were circa 2000-04--would flip NM back into a swing state. We DO still elect Republicans here.

My odds of the GOP reaching their ceiling? .01%

A realistic GOP win looks something like this to me:

Same as OP but I give GOP NH because it is not a state won on minority turnout. I'm a big believer in demographics for election results and the GOP's best chance is to carry about 64% of the white vote which would be this map.

[Ljube]

Same as OP but I give GOP NH because it is not a state won on minority turnout. I'm a big believer in demographics for election results and the GOP's best chance is to carry about 64% of the white vote which would be this map.

OK. We're getting somewhere and I tend to agree. Latinos coming back to GOP isn't going to happen in 2016.

Now, which candidate would be the best for running up the margin with whites to 64%?

[King]

Reagan is the only one to get more than 62 when he got 66 in 1984. So, the next him.

The better question is who is a Democrat that only 35% of whites would vote for? It's certainly not Hillary Clinton.

[Rockefeller GOP]

JMO, but this board severely overrates how loyal NH is to the Democratic Party.  It would go GOP in a favorable environment with a solid candidate.

NH has same day registration. So does Wisconsin. I think we can all agree there are more Democrats than Republicans in the country. Therefore, these two states are out of reach of the GOP in presidential years when the Democrats are willing to spend huge amounts on GOTV effort.


By the way, could you elaborate on your favorable environment and solid candidate?

I think in 2016, Chris Christie would likely carry NH vs. Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren.

[Ljube]

The presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party is Hillary Rodham Clinton.
So, let's consider only her in our deliberation, please.

[Ljube]

What percentage of the white vote is Hillary's floor?

[King]

Obama got 40%. Even if he's unpopular, I can't imagine her doing worse than 38. She might go as high as 43-44.

[Rockefeller GOP]

The presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party is Hillary Rodham Clinton.
So, let's consider only her in our deliberation, please.

Okay, well I'd re-read your OP before expecting people to assume that.

[Ljube]

Is it possible that Hillary will perform much worse with men than Obama did?
If that happens, she may get less than 38% of the vote.
She won't get more women than Obama already got. I think Obama maxed out on women.


In those circumstances, which candidate would be best: Bush, Christie, or Rubio?
I know that Paul is a serious candidate and I support him, but I don’t think that 2016 will be his year because of ISIS.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Is it possible that Hillary will perform much worse with men than Obama did?
If that happens, she may get less than 38% of the vote.
She won't get more women than Obama already got. I think Obama maxed out on women.


In those circumstances, which candidate would be best: Bush, Christie, or Rubio?
I know that Paul is a serious candidate and I support him, but I don’t think that 2016 will be his year because of ISIS.

...and his positions on women's health, his economic policy, social security privatisation, healthcare in general....

[Ljube]

Yeah. That too.

[Mister Mets]

What percentage of the white vote is Hillary's floor?

I'd guess it's pretty low. The thing to keep in mind is that Obama got 39% under favorable circumstances (Incumbent running for reelection during a recovering economy, credited for a strong response to Hurricane Sandy.)

Obama's 43 percent in 2008 was the Democrat's third-best showing with the group in the last twelve elections (Carter got 48 percent in 1976 while Clinton got 44 percent in 1996.)

34 percent seems like a plausible floor for HRC.

[Ljube]

So, if she hits the floor, the door will hit her.

[IceSpear]

What percentage of the white vote is Hillary's floor?

I'd guess it's pretty low. The thing to keep in mind is that Obama got 39% under favorable circumstances (Incumbent running for reelection during a recovering economy, credited for a strong response to Hurricane Sandy.)

Obama's 43 percent in 2008 was the Democrat's third-best showing with the group in the last twelve elections (Carter got 48 percent in 1976 while Clinton got 44 percent in 1996.)

34 percent seems like a plausible floor for HRC.

That sounds like revisionist history to me. Back during 2012, everyone was talking about how the sluggish economy was hurting Obama's chances.

[Mister Mets]

What percentage of the white vote is Hillary's floor?

I'd guess it's pretty low. The thing to keep in mind is that Obama got 39% under favorable circumstances (Incumbent running for reelection during a recovering economy, credited for a strong response to Hurricane Sandy.)

Obama's 43 percent in 2008 was the Democrat's third-best showing with the group in the last twelve elections (Carter got 48 percent in 1976 while Clinton got 44 percent in 1996.)

34 percent seems like a plausible floor for HRC.

That sounds like revisionist history to me. Back during 2012, everyone was talking about how the sluggish economy was hurting Obama's chances.

There was debate about it. The thirteen keys guy thought it would help Obama.

Economic numbers were decent in late 2012.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82925.html