If Republicans take the Senate next month, how long will they control Congress?

[All Along The Watchtower]

What are your predictions for how long the Republicans will control both houses of Congress?

Furthermore, what would be the consequences for the remaining two years of Obama's Presidency, and if the Democrats also win the Presidency in 2016?

[New_Conservative]

Two years, the 2016 map doesn't look too promising compared to this year, but there's obviously no way to know for sure.

[Miles]

Two years, but Democrats would be in a similarly dicey scenario going into 2018.

[Never]

Two years, but Democrats would be in a similarly dicey scenario going into 2018.

[IceSpear]

Two years, but Democrats would be in a similarly dicey scenario going into 2018.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

depends on how much they win it by this year. A 51 or 52 seat majority probably goes away in 2016, but may come right back in 2018. A 54 or 55 seat majority will stick around until at least 2020.

[Mehmentum]

Two years, but Democrats would be in a similarly dicey scenario going into 2018.

[Consciously Unconscious]

It depends on how big the majority is.  Probably only until 2016, but if it's a big enough majority it could last until the 20's. 

[Knives]

2016 is a Presidential years + Republicans will shut down govt + Hillary factor.

Dems could sweep both houses imo.

[tmthforu94]

I'm a little more optimistic and will say possibly to 2022. If Republicans can get to 53 seats in November I like their chances of hanging on - while much can change, I think a loss of 2 seats is reasonable for 2016.

Regardless, I think if Republicans do lose it in 2016 they will easily gain it right back in 2018 if Hillary is elected President. In a midterm year, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, and Indiana are all prime targets, plus you have potential in quite a few others.

[Skill and Chance]

Well, the question is about Congress.  I don't think anyone has suggested 2018 yet- scenario would be Republicans sweep everything in 2016 and then a big enough backlash against their agenda to flip the house.  Not sure how the senate could possibly flip R to D in 2018, though.  What would they pick up other than NV?

[tmthforu94]

Well, the question is about Congress.  I don't think anyone has suggested 2018 yet- scenario would be Republicans sweep everything in 2016 and then a big enough backlash against their agenda to flip the house.  Not sure how the senate could possibly flip R to D in 2018, though.  What would they pick up other than NV?

It all depends on the environment - West Virginia would have a strong chance of flipping if Manchin opts to run for Governor, and Colorado could also be a potential. Republicans certainly have a lot more to defend, but I think they'll also be starting out with a good advantage in a lot of states (Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Arizona). The only states that begin automatically as a toss-up are Illinois and Wisconsin, as well as Pennsylvania according to who you talk to.

Obviously a lot of hypotheticals - I didn't think Republicans had much chance of taking the Senate in 2014 a year ago but it is looking pretty good now.

[Skill and Chance]

Well, the question is about Congress.  I don't think anyone has suggested 2018 yet- scenario would be Republicans sweep everything in 2016 and then a big enough backlash against their agenda to flip the house.  Not sure how the senate could possibly flip R to D in 2018, though.  What would they pick up other than NV?

It all depends on the environment - West Virginia would have a strong chance of flipping if Manchin opts to run for Governor, and Colorado could also be a potential. Republicans certainly have a lot more to defend, but I think they'll also be starting out with a good advantage in a lot of states (Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Arizona). The only states that begin automatically as a toss-up are Illinois and Wisconsin, as well as Pennsylvania according to who you talk to.

Obviously a lot of hypotheticals - I didn't think Republicans had much chance of taking the Senate in 2014 a year ago but it is looking pretty good now.

Well, Republicans won only a single senate race in a state carried by Obama in both 2008 and 2012.  In 2016, there are 7 Republican seats up in Obama 2012 states (but some were very narrow), so if Democrats win the presidential election, I would fully expect D+4 or so in the senate.  But if a Republican won the presidential election by enough to swing the PA/WI/NH class of states, I could see a break-even or R+1 scenario.  Now if Hillary ran and won, say Obama 2008+GA+AZ+MO, then you could be looking at something more like D+8.  In short, it would shock me if Republicans held onto the Senate without picking up the White House. 

[smoltchanov]

Almost surely - 2 years. 2016 is Presidential year, and Republicans have a ton of seats (including very weak ones) to defend in Senate. It's another matter that Democrats will be in the same position in non-presidential 2018. House will, most likely, stay Republican until 2022.

[SWE]

In 2 years when Johnson, Kirk, Ayotte, Toomey, and McCain (if he survives his primary) are defeated

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Perhaps something like
114th Senate: 52-48 R
115th Senate: 54-46 D
116th Senate 51-49 R

The seats up in 2016 and 2018 are so lopsided for the one party that the other party can gain 6 Seats, and the first party stills wins the majority of the seats up.

[RR1997]

R,D,R

[Free Bird]

I'd say into at least 2020. The majority that is shaping seems to have some slack, and saying Kirk, Johnson, and Toomey are dead on arrival as your reasoning is just ignorant, especially if Sandoval runs in NV and with PA and WI trending R in general. It will be narrow regardless.

[IceSpear]

I'd say into at least 2020. The majority that is shaping seems to have some slack, and saying Kirk, Johnson, and Toomey are dead on arrival as your reasoning is just ignorant, especially if Sandoval runs in NV and with PA and WI trending R in general. It will be narrow regardless.

Nobody's saying any of those people are DoA (except possibly Kirk). But if the GOP wins the majority this year it will likely be 51-49, 52-48, 53-47. That doesn't exactly take a Dem landslide in order for them to win it back in 2016.

Don't forget, back in early 2013, states like AR/LA were rated as "lean D". Once the races begin to engage, those incumbent advantages in blue states will quickly slip away.

[ShamDam]

Two years, but Democrats would be in a similarly dicey scenario going into 2018.

[Maxwell]

I can see a couple years of just flipping and flopping.