The Dark Horse(s) A Look Back on 2016

[NHI]

Prologue:

"We are on the verge of one of the most historic and significant Presidential Elections in modern American History..."

Bob Ehrlich Announces Run for Republican Nomination (January 2015)

"I'm running to help this country, to save this country. It needs it now more than ever."

Dr. Ben Carson for President (January 2015)

"Today, with full hearts, with a clear sense of purpose, guided by faith and love of country I announce that I will be a candidate for President of the United States of America. This is not a time for politics. This is a time for action."

Rand Paul 'Officially' Enters Race for President (February 2015)

"After months of speculation, today I formally and officially announce my candidacy to run for President of the United States. I enter this race with the full intention of winning the Republican nomination and defeating the likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton..."

Bobby Jindal: For President (February 2015)

Rob Portman Declares Run for President (March 2015)

"I have been weighing an option of running for many months now and I have reached the conclusion that I have the skills and qualifications to bring this country back. I am in it to win it, because this is not a time for sitting on the sidelines. Now is a time to get involved and take charge.

Huckabee's In. "The Republican Party must reassert itself" (April 2015)

"...we've lost our way as a party and as a country and that's no coincidence. America must come roaring back, but for that to happen we must turn to our fundamental belief and principles to turn this country around and with your help we can..."

The Frontrunner: Bush Makes Bid Official (May 2015)

"These are changing times. These are difficult times. Some say we've lost our way, that our best days are in the past. I refuse to believe it. I won't believe it. These times, while difficult and changing can be tapped into to bring about an extraordinary movement. We can harness our energies and passion to make this country once again as Ronald Reagan so eloquently said of it, a great shining city upon the hill."

"I'm in!" Christie Jumps into the Presidential Race (June 2015)

"I think America needs a dose of common sense and in New Jersey we've done that. We've fixed a broken system. We've stopped gridlocked. We've restored public confidence in government and leaders. America needs a reality call and I think I'm the one to make it. I wouldn't be here otherwise."

Dark Horse? Carly Fiorina Enters the Race for GOP Nod (June 2015)

"America needs a turnaround. America needs a champion. Someone to fix the country's problems. Someone to restore our confidence. I offer myself as that leader."

No Surprise: Ted Cruz Runs for President (July 2015)

"We are facing a fundamental choice that cuts across party lines and it is: Do we surrender or do we stand up for liberty? I think the answer is simple: We will stand up for liberty. We've done it before. We'll do it again."

Republican Nomination Preference Poll: July 2015

Jeb Bush: 14%
Chris Christie: 13%
Rand Paul: 13%
Ted Cruz: 11%
Mike Huckabee: 10%
Rob Portman: 8%
Cary Fiorina: 6%
Ben Carson: 5%
Bobby Jindal: 4%
Bob Erhlich: 1%
Undecided: 15%

The First Democrat in the Race: Martin O'Malley (February 2015)

Bernie Sanders Throws his Hat into the Ring (March 2015)

Jim Webb is Running for President (March 2015)

Was There Any Doubt? She's In *Officially* (August 2015)

Democratic Nomination Preference Poll: August 2015

Hillary Clinton: 58%
Martin O'Malley: 11%
Bernie Sanders: 9%
Jim Webb: 7%
Undecided: 15%

[Enderman]

This looks pretty cool... Portman/Fiorina!

[NHI]

The 2014 Midterms

Control of the Senate:

Alaska: R+1

√ Dan Sullivan: 49.1%
Mark Begich: 48.3%
Other: 2.6%

Arkansas: R+2

√ Tom Cotton: 50.9%

Mark Pryor: 48.1%
Other: 1.0%

Colorado: R+3

√ Cory Gardner: 49.5%

Mark Udall: 49.3%
Other: 1.2%

Georgia: R HOLD

√ David Perdue: 51.0%

Michelle Nunn: 48.9%
Other: 0.1%

Iowa: R+4

√ Joni Ernst: 50.3%

Bruce Braley: 48.8%

Other: 0.9%

Kansas: I+1

√ Greg Orman: 47.7%

Pat Roberts: 47.0%
Other: 5.3%

Kentucky: R HOLD

√ Mitch McConnell: 52.7%

Allison Lundergan Grimes: 46.3%
Other: 1.0%

Louisiana: R+5

√ Bill Cassidy: 51.8%

Mary Landrieu: 48.2%

Michigan: D HOLD

√ Gary Peters: 53.9%

Terri Lynn Land: 45.1%
Other: 1.0%

Montana: R+5

√ Steve Daines: 57.0%

Amanda Curtis: 40.9%

Other: 2.1%

New Hampshire: R+6

√ Scott Brown: 49.9%

Jeanne Shaheen: 48.9%

Other: 1.2%

Control of the Senate: Republicans: 50 Democrats: 49 Independents: 2

North Carolina: D HOLD

√ Kay Hagan: 50.1%

Thom Tillis: 48.9%

Other: 1.0%

South Dakota: R+ 7

√ Mike Rounds: 40.9%

Rick Weiland: 34.8%

Larry Pressler: 20.4%
Other: 3.9%

Republicans Win Control of the Senate

Virginia: D HOLD

√ Mark Warner: 51.4%

Ed Gillespie: 40.7%
Robert Sarvis: 6.9%
Other: 1.0%

West Virginia: R+8

√ Shelley Moore Capito: 59.0%

Natalie Tennant: 40.2%

Other: 0.8%

√ Republicans: 52

Democrats: 46

Independents: 2

Key Governor's Races

Maine: R HOLD

√ Paul LePage: 40.0%

Mike Michaud: 39.1%

Eliot Cutler: 18.7%
Other: 2.2%

Massachusetts: R Pickup

√ Charlie Baker: 48.0%

Martha Coakley: 47.0%

Other: 5.0%

[NHI]

Ames Straw Poll: August 2015

√ Ben Carson: 4,211 (20.98%)
Rand Paul: 4,194 (20.90%)
Ted Cruz: 3,754 (18.71%)
Mike Huckabee: 2,421 (12.06%)
Rob Portman: 1,094 (5.45%)
Carly Fiorina: 1,074 (5.35%)
Chris Christie: 999 (4.97%)
Bob Erhlich: 946 (4.71%)
Jeb Bush: 899 (4.48%)
Bobby Jindal: 451 (2.24%)
Other: 21 (0.15%)

Headlines: Post Ames Straw Poll

Rise of the Grassroots: BEN CARSON WINS STRAW POLL

CARSON WINS STRAW POLL -- CAN HE WIN IOWA?

AMES STRAW POLL: Carson: 20.98% Paul: 20.90%

JEB BUSH FARES POORLY IN AMES STRAW POLL

Jindal Ends Bid, Backs Bush

Ames, IA

After a poor showing in the Ames Straw Poll, an event where Bobby Jindal invested a great deal of time and money, with hopes of a strong finish would launch him into the top tier -- Bobby Jindal dropped out and endorsed fellow Governor Jeb Bush. Jindal, who declared his campaign in February has struggled to gain much traction, focusing his entire campaign effort on the Iowa Caucuses, but in a crowd field Jindal was unable to break through and define himself. In backing Bush, cited the Florida Governor "has the best chance of uniting the Republican Party for victory."

Jeb Bush, who finished just barely ahead of Jindal in the Straw Poll wrote off the event, instead visiting South Carolin and New Hampshire during the busy weekend. The results of the Straw Poll have put Dr. Ben Carson (the winner) and Senator Rand Paul (the runner up) in a fight for Iowa. Carson's unexpected win came as a surprise to many and his victory is seen as damaging Paul who was widely expected to win the straw poll. Carson's win while impressive has once more fuled thought that the straw poll is a waste of time for candidates.

Chris Christie, followed the playbook of Bush and wrote off the poll, while Mike Huckabee and Ted Cruz have been focusing heavily on it. Huckabee narrowly lost to Mitt Romney in 2007, but finished a distant fourth behind Cruz. The great influx of social conservatives allowed Rob Portman to finish a surprising 5th place. Portman, who is considered a wildcard in the race has been keeping his profile relatively low, visiting county after county in Iowa, hoping it will translate into a victory next January.  

Behind Portman were Carly Fiorina and Christie, who all finished extremely close to one another prompting many in the media to call it a three way tie for 5th place. Republican Strategist and former Manager for the McCain Campaign in 2008, Steve Schmidt said of the field, "Jeb Bush is still the frontrunner, but he's a fragile one. Then you've got this collection of more moderate, establishment candidates like Christie, Portman and Fiorina and they are all vying for the same vote and trying to have a breakout moment. Now normally it's a collection of more conservative candidates versus a moderate one, but in this race there is a collection of both moderates and conservatives, making this an all more open race for the GOP nomination.

[NHI]

Portman/Fiorina Rise & Shine as Other Stumble & Fall

Rob Portman and Carly Fiorina continue to see their stock skyrocket as longtime establishment favorites Chris Christie and Jeb Bush are plagued by past problems and shortcomings. Christie, who is still dogged by questions over his potential involvement in "Bridgegate" has had trouble bringing his New Jersey swagger to the national stage. Bush, the one time frontrunner has proven himself inept at campaigning (his first since 2002) and with many of his position in stark contrast to the GOP base, including support for Immigration Reform and Common Core have caused his poll numbers to sink and win more enemies than friends from those in the grassroots.

Portman, a more moderate Republican seems to be picking up where both Christie and Bush have fallen. Already, many of the key Christie and Bush fundraisers and people (a lot from Romney 2012) are jumping ship and climbing aboard the Ohio Senator's campaign. Carly Fiorina is tapping into much of the same network and appears to be setting herself up for a battle with Portman over possibly the establishment pick. While Portman has a long way to go the Ohio Senator is proving himself a more viable candidate by the day.

[badgate]

Very interesting, I like the creative field you've created for both parties.

[NHI]

Very interesting, I like the creative field you've created for both parties.

Thanks!

[NHI]

Too Mean to Be President

"No," Chris Christie said while at a town hall in Iowa. "I'm not going to answer your question because it's stupid, now sit back in your chair and shut up." The incident occurred at a town hall with the New Jersey Governor and an Iowa resident and it is raising the question if Chris Christie is too mean-spirited too be president and is his bullying persona is out of step with most Americans. Christie has been struggling to keep his poll numbers leveled in Iowa, as well as nationally and this incident feeds into the perception of him as a bully and the instability of his campaign.

[NHI]

The Social Conservative Cometh?

Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee are battling to the social conservative darling in Iowa, and thus propel them into the top tier. Cruz, the conservative firebrand in the Senate has struggled in Iowa after losing badly in the Iowa Straw poll. Huckabee has seen his numbers rise following the collapse of Ben Carson, the winner of the Iowa Straw Poll. Carson, once a favorite of the Tea Party failed a candidate, running a gaffe-prone campaign and a serious of inappropriate comments regarding women's rights and his reference to Democrats as "special needs patients, who need disability pensions." Recent polls have put Huckabee is a fight with Rand Paul, the current favorite in Iowa, but many are still counting Rob Portman, who has laid below the radar, visiting all 99 counties in Iowa.

Iowa Caucuses: Polls

Rand Paul: 25%
Mike Huckabee: 21%
Rob Portman: 15%
Jeb Bush: 11%
Carly Fiorina: 10%
Bob Erlich: 6%
Chris Christie: 5%
Undecided: 7%

New Hampshire Primary Polls:

Rand Paul: 23%
Jeb Bush: 17%
Chris Christie: 12%
Rob Portman: 10%
Carly Fiorina: 10%
Mike Huckabee: 9%
Ted Cruz: 6%
Bob Erlich: 2%
Undecided: 11%

[NHI]

√ IOWA'S CLINTON COUNTRY

Iowa Caucuses: Democratic Primary 100% Reported

√ Hillary Clinton: 52.01%
Jim Webb: 20.53%
Bernie Sanders: 16.49%
Martin O'Malley: 9.97%
Other: 1.0%

√ IOWA *Still LIKES MIKE

Iowa Caucuses: Republican Primary 100% Reported

√ Mike Huckabee: 23.44%

Rand Paul: 21.09%
Rob Portman: 20.99%
Ted Cruz: 17.33%
Jeb Bush: 6.99%
Chris Christie: 4.67%
Carly Fiorina: 4.00%
Bob Erhlich: 1.01%
Other: 0.48%

The Big Winners From Iowa

Democratic Nomination Poll:

Hillary Clinton: 50%
Jim Webb: 22%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Undecided: 9%

Republican Nomination Poll:

Mike Huckabee: 28%
Rand Paul: 24%
Rob Portman: 16%
Jeb Bush: 10%
Chris Christie: 9%
Ted Cruz: 8%
Undecided: 5%