Why shouldn't we expect the same polling errors in 2014 colorado as in 2010 CO?
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  Why shouldn't we expect the same polling errors in 2014 colorado as in 2010 CO?
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Author Topic: Why shouldn't we expect the same polling errors in 2014 colorado as in 2010 CO?  (Read 516 times)
Matty
boshembechle
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« on: October 22, 2014, 12:12:46 AM »

The narrative looks almost identical to me. Gardner, like Buck, is leading by around 3-4 points mere weeks before the election.
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Ljube
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2014, 02:37:28 AM »

I don't know, but I expect the pollsters learned their lesson.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2014, 03:41:45 AM »

Because this time Gardner has run a fantastic campaign whereas Udall keeps being stupid
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Harry
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2014, 07:25:23 AM »

Hopefully the pollsters won't knowingly make the same errors?

I don't know, maybe they will. But there's no reason to expect it...
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2014, 07:34:55 AM »

KEN BUUUUUCK!
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RR1997
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2014, 07:49:30 AM »
« Edited: October 22, 2014, 08:07:07 AM by RR1997 »

Let's take a look at the senate polls for Colordo in 2010:


PPP predicted Bennet's victory correctly (with the exception of their last poll), while all the other pollsters got it wrong, and since PPP shows Gardner in the lead this time (by three points instead of one), I believe that Gardner will win.

PPP is like the polling king, and whatever they say I'll follow.
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Mogrovejo
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2014, 08:17:01 AM »

1 - The case for polling failure in Colorado in 2010 is vastly overstated. From all pollsters that published polls in the last 2 weeks, only two had polls with more than 2 points deviated from the final result (Ras and Marist) and even those were well within the MoE. It was a decent showing for the pollsters.

2 - Even if there's some sort of systemic polling bias, we have no way of predicting in which way it is and where it might happen. The fact that it's happened in Colorado in a recent past is immaterial - such patterns don't really exist, it's all random. There's a good chance that there's a systemic bias in polls - since 1990, there were 5 elections where the average bias was 2.5 points or higher in favour of a party. But even if we knew for sure this would be another of those elections, it'd be impossible to predict which party is benefiting from it, in which states its more expressive. In the past, the past was never predictive.

And stuff like VBM surely adds uncertainty but it doesn't suggest a higher probability of bias toward one party - pollsters are very well aware that VBM will exist and that they'll need new turnout models. We'll see if they got it right and to which extent on election night. But the best policy is to assume polls aggregate are generally right - because they generally are - while understanding they might very well be wrong.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2014, 10:17:03 AM »

Because Udall is basically the Buck of 2014 in terms of candidate quality, whereas Gardner has been campaigning like a top tier candidate
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backtored
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2014, 10:43:00 AM »

Polls are probably underestimating Republican strength in Colorado right now. Yes, underestimating.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2014, 10:47:03 AM »

Because this time Gardner has run a fantastic campaign whereas Udall keeps being stupid

Because Udall is basically the Buck of 2014 in terms of candidate quality, whereas Gardner has been campaigning like a top tier candidate

Polls are probably underestimating Republican strength in Colorado right now. Yes, underestimating.

That's some meaningful analysis right there.

PPP predicted Bennet's victory correctly (with the exception of their last poll), while all the other pollsters got it wrong, and since PPP shows Gardner in the lead this time (by three points instead of one), I believe that Gardner will win.

PPP is like the polling king, and whatever they say I'll follow.

This is correct.
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RI
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« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2014, 12:08:52 PM »

While PPP's final polls are generally quite accurate, they do occasionally miss the mark. See WA Sen 2010, NV Sen 2010, IL Gov 2010, and their entire last 2010 Alaska poll. In each case they called the wrong winner with an error of at least 6 percentage points. They've had some other large errors that didn't call the wrong winner: MO 2012 Sen (12 points too R), CO 2010 Gov (10 points too "R"), ME 2010 Gov (10 points too R), NH 2010 Sen (8 points too D), ME 2012 Sen (8 points too R), MI 2012 Sen (8 points too R), NH 2012 Gov (8 points too R), etc.

Among polls where PPP missed by 6+ points since 2010, 80% were biased against Democrats/Independents and 20% were biased against Republicans. Of the 21 polls biased against Republicans, 76% were off by 4 points or fewer; of the 45 polls biased against Democrats, 60% were off by 4 points or fewer.

In all Senate, Governor, and Presidential contests from 2010 on, PPP calls the incorrect winner with their last poll 9.9% of the time. Excluding Presidential contests, that rises to 13.7% of the time. Of the 24 races where the results was between +5/-5, PPP missed the winner 25% of the time. The only incorrect call favoring the Republicans was 2010 Florida Governor.

Going back to 2010 (71 polls), the mean final PPP poll missed by 4 points, the median by 3 points. The mean and median bias was 2 points too Republican. Going back through 2008 (102 polls), the mean final PPP poll missed by 3.6 points, the median still by 3 points. The mean bias was 1.6 points too Republican, the median 1.5 points too Republican.

While they do better than other pollsters, they are hardly infallible.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2014, 12:14:25 PM »

While PPP's final polls are generally quite accurate, they do occasionally miss the mark. See WA Sen 2010, NV Sen 2010, IL Gov 2010, and their entire last 2010 Alaska poll. In each case they called the wrong winner with an error of at least 6 percentage points. They've had some other large errors that didn't call the wrong winner: MO 2012 Sen (12 points too R), CO 2010 Gov (10 points too "R"), ME 2010 Gov (10 points too R), NH 2010 Sen (8 points too D), ME 2012 Sen (8 points too R), MI 2012 Sen (8 points too R), NH 2012 Gov (8 points too R), etc.

Among polls where PPP missed by 6+ points since 2010, 80% were biased against Democrats/Independents and 20% were biased against Republicans. Of the 21 polls biased against Republicans, 76% were off by 4 points or fewer; of the 45 polls biased against Democrats, 60% were off by 4 points or fewer.

In all Senate, Governor, and Presidential contests from 2010 on, PPP calls the incorrect winner with their last poll 9.9% of the time. Excluding Presidential contests, that rises to 13.7% of the time. Of the 24 races where the results was between +5/-5, PPP missed the winner 25% of the time. The only incorrect call favoring the Republicans was 2010 Florida Governor.

Going back to 2010 (71 polls), the mean final PPP poll missed by 4 points, the median by 3 points. The mean and median bias was 2 points too Republican. Going back through 2008 (102 polls), the mean final PPP poll missed by 3.6 points, the median still by 3 points. The mean bias was 1.6 points too Republican, the median 1.5 points too Republican.

While they do better than other pollsters, they are hardly infallible.

One thing it shows is that they definitely don't have a Democratic bias.
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