Predict who will be elected governor in Nov 2014 in each of the following states

[JerryArkansas]

[Orser67]

For some states like Nebraska, I really have no idea.

2013
New Jersey: Christie
Virginia: McAuliffe

2014
Alabama: Bob Bentley
Alaska: Sean Parnell
Arizona: Fred DuVal
Arkansas: Ross
California: Jerry Brown
Colorado: John Hickenlooper
Connecticut: Malloy
Florida: Charlie Crist
Georgia: Deal
Hawaii: Abercrombie
Idaho: Butch Otter
Illinois: Daley
Iowa: Terry Branstad
Kansas: Brownback
Maine: Michaud
Maryland: Anthony Brown
Massachusetts: Mike Capuano
Michigan: Schauer
Minnesota: Mark Dayton
Nebraska: Charlie Janssen
Nevada: Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan
New Mexico: Susana Martinez
New York: Andrew Cuomo
Ohio: Ed Fitzgerald
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin
Oregon: John Kitzhaber
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz
Rhode Island: Angel Taveras
South Carolina: Vincent Sheheen
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard
Tennessee: Bill Haslam
Texas: Greg Abbott
Vermont: Peter Shumlin
Wisconsin: Scott Walker
Wyoming: Mead

[Mister Mets]

My predictions.

Obviously I have the benefit of new information that wasn't available in March. For example, William Daley has announced a bid for Governor of Illinois, and Lisa Madigan decided against it.

2013 elections
New Jersey- Chris Christie
Virginia- Terry McAuliffe

2014 Elections
Alabama- Robert J. Bentley
Alaska- Sean Parnell
Arizona- Doug Ducey
State Treasurer and former CEO of Cold Stone Creamery. He's wealthy, Republican and holds the type of office that's a stepping stone for political bids.

Arkansas- Republican
This one's tough to the predict. As the likely Democratic nominee, Mike Ross seems to have a better shot that any of the declared Republicans, but whoever wins the Republican primary will likely be the favorite.

California- Jerry Brown
Colorado-John Hickenlooper
Slight favorite to win the general election, and there are so many potential Republican nominees.

Connecticut- Tom Foley
Florida- Charlie Crist
Georgia- Nathan Deal
Hawaii- Neil Abercrombie
He's vulnerable, but the top Democratic opponent decided to run for Senate.

Idaho- Butch Otter
Illinois- William Daley
Iowa- Terry Branstad
Kansas- Sam Brownback
Maine- Mike Michaud
Maryland- Doug Gansler
Massachusetts- Scott Brown
More because the Democratic field is so crowded. Coakley will have to fight to be forgiven after her first loss to Brown.

Michigan- Rick Snyder
Minnesota- Mark Dayton
Nebraska- Don Stenberg
Nevada- Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire- Maggie Hassan
New Mexico- Susana Martinez
New York- Andrew Cuomo
Ohio- John Kasich
Oklahoma- Mary Fallin
Oregon- No clue.
Pennsylvania- Allyson Schwartz
Although it's likely to be a toss-up if Corbett opts out, and another Republican wins the nomination.

Rhode Island- Gina Raimondo
South Carolina- Nikki Haley
She's a slight favorite.

South Dakota- Dennis Dauggard
Tennessee- Bill Haslam
Texas- Greg Abbott
Vermont- Peter Shumlin
Wisconsin- Scott Walker
Wyoming- Matt Mead

[TX Conservative Dem]

Corbett could still get reelected in PA though if you're looking at historical trends considering PA has reelected their governor since 1974.

Same thing for Tennessee: in 2018 when Haslam is term-limited, the Dems will get it back.

[free my dawg]

2013 elections
New Jersey- Chris Christie
Virginia- Terry McAuliffe

2014 Elections
Alabama- Robert J. Bentley
Alaska- Sean Parnell
Arizona- Ken Bennett
Arkansas- Mike Ross (by a very slim margin)
California- Jerry Brown
Colorado- John Hickenlooper (he'll recover)
Connecticut- Dan Malloy (he'll recover too)
Florida- Charlie Crist (no liberal challengers seem ready to step up, and my gut says Sink won't run)
Georgia- Nathan Deal
Hawaii- Neil Abercrombie (praying Djou/Aiona don't run)
Idaho- Butch Otter
Illinois- Bill Daley
Iowa- Terry Branstad
Kansas- Sam Brownback
Maine- Mike Michaud
Maryland- Anthony Brown
Massachusetts- Mike Capuano (though if Coakley runs I can see Baker winning)
Michigan- Mark Schauer (one good poll away from shifting to a pure tossup)
Minnesota- Mark Dayton
Nebraska- Tom Foley
Nevada- Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire- Maggie Hassan
New Mexico- Susana Martinez
New York- Andrew Cuomo
Ohio- John Kasich
Oklahoma- Mary Fallin
Oregon- John Kitzhaber
Pennsylvania- Allyson Schwartz (though any Republican could make this a race again, I'd rate it somewhere between Leans and Likely D)
Rhode Island- Gina Raimondo
South Carolina- Nikki Haley (this is the same state that elected Mark Sanford to Congress)
South Dakota- Dennis Dauggard
Tennessee- Bill Haslam
Texas- Greg Abbott
Vermont- Peter Shumlin
Wisconsin- Scott Walker
Wyoming- Matt Mead

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin-Scott Walker (R-incumbent) wins by one of the biggest landslide margins since Tommy Thompson in 1998.

No he won't. He's not going to win by 20 points. He'd have to win Milwaukee County for that to happen. He's also not going to win by 10 point. He'll win somewhere between 5-4%. The state is way too polarized right now and he's a way too polarizing figure now to win by more then that.

[LeBron]

2013:
New Jersey - Chris Christie
Virginia - Terry McAuliffe (With the Cuccinelli scandal arising and E.W. Jackson ruining everything for him, McAuliffe is a sure win now and will win by about 4-5 points).

2014:
Alabama- Robert J. Bentley
Alaska- Sean Parnell
Arizona- Chad Campbell (I think the Democrats can win this one given that Hispanics make up over 30% of the electorate).
Arkansas- Asa Hutchinson (I would have said Ross back in February, but the GOP gap is widening too much for a Democratic hold)
California- Jerry Brown
Colorado- John Hickenlooper
Connecticut- Dan Malloy (By a close margin)
Florida- Charlie Crist
Georgia- Nathan Deal
Hawaii- Neil Abercrombie
Idaho- Butch Otter
Illinois- Dan Rutherford (Kind of too early to say, but I think Rutherford could eak out a win even if Daley wins the primary).
Iowa- Terry Branstad
Kansas- Sam Brownback
Maine- Mike Michaud (Given how unpopular LePage has become, Cutler won't make as big of an impact on the election as he did in 2010).
Maryland- Anthony Brown
Massachusetts- Mike Capuano
Michigan- Mark Schauer (Assuming King doesn't run, just like with FitzGerald, it's merely getting name recognition in the next year and then he should be able to defeat him).
Minnesota- Mark Dayton
Nebraska- Don Stenberg
Nevada- Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire- Maggie Hassan
New Mexico- Susana Martinez
New York- Andrew Cuomo
Ohio- Ed FitzGerald (His approval is at 54% and he's beating FitzGerald by 14 points, but there's so many factors that play into this that can get the Democrat the win. Again, name recognition, he'll get more votes out of the North and probably the Southeast to with the help of Strickland, unemployment and poverty is rising, and just like when Strickland's approval bombed in Autumn 2010 due to all the jobs lost, I think the same will end up happening to Kasich).
Oklahoma- Mary Fallin
Oregon- John Kitzhaber
Pennsylvania- Allyson Schwartz
Rhode Island- Gina Raimondo (Even if Chafee wins the primary, his state approval would increase by election time and he could still win it).
South Carolina- Nikki Haley (Same reason SawxDem gave).
South Dakota- Dennis Dauggard
Tennessee- Bill Haslam
Texas- Greg Abbott
Vermont- Peter Shumlin
Wisconsin- Scott Walker
Wyoming- Dave Freudenthal (I don't see Mead being allowed to run for another term, so this could be a huge upset for the Wyoming Republicans).

So after the 2014 elections, I'm predicting the Democrats will hold 25 Governor's seats and the Republicans 25 Governor's seats.

[free my dawg]

Corbett could still get reelected in PA though if you're looking at historical trends considering PA has reelected their governor since 1974.

Same thing for Tennessee: in 2018 when Haslam is term-limited, the Dems will get it back.

Trends are irrelevant. In one of the towns close by, Democrats didn't elect a representative there since 1910. In the great wave of 2006, they did. We came sixty votes away from electing her again in 2012. Times change, situations change, and trends become obsolete.

Corbett is as toxic as Scott right now, except Corbett isn't facing an opportunist who seems to be in it more for the prestige. That's what's relevant. Jim Cooper is the only Democrat who can win statewide for Governor. Bredesen will be too old and Harold Ford is pissing around New York. Those are facts that can happen.

Wyoming- Dave Freudenthal (I don't see Mead being allowed to run for another term, so this could be a huge upset for the Wyoming Republicans).

Freudenthal is term-limited and can't run until 2020 (term limits are very confusing out there. you can only serve 8 out of the last 16 years). His best bet is to announce for Senate and PRAY that Cheney wins.

[President Johnson]

CA: Jerry Brown
TX: Wendy Davis
FL: Charlie Christ
IL: Pat Quinn
PA: Allyson Schwartz
OH: John Kasich
MI: Rick Snyder

[TX Conservative Dem]

Wendy Davis has ZERO chance of winning the TX governorship.

[Flake]

California - Jerry Brown
Texas - Greg Abbott
Florida - Alex Sink
Illinois - Lisa Madigan
Pennsylvania - Allyson Schwartz
Ohio - Ed FitzGerald
Michigan - Mark Schauer

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Any updates?

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Dem pickups in ME and PA

[free my dawg]

Dems pick up MI, ME, PA, and FL.

[Vega]

California - Jerry Brown
Texas - Greg Abbott
Florida - Charlie Crist
Illinois - Pat Quinn
Pennsylvania - Tom Wolf
Ohio - Ed FitzGerald
Michigan - Rick Snyder

[ElectionsGuy]

California - Jerry Brown
Texas - Greg Abbott
Florida - Charlie Crist
Illinois - Pat Quinn (just barely)
Pennsylvania - Tom Wolf
Ohio - John Kasich
Michigan - Rick Snyder

[NewYorkExpress]

An Update

Alabama- Robert Bentley (R) ( While I don't believe a primary upset is out of the question, this is the most likely result)

Alaska- Sean Parnell (R) (And he'll win big)


Arizona- Ken Bennett (R) (Even if the courts rule in favor of Gov. Brewer and let her run for a full second term, she's pissed off too many movement conservatives for her to win a GOP Primary)

Arkansas- Asa Hutchinson (R) (Democrats are more likely to win here than in the Senate Race, but the climate favors Hutchinson)

California- Jerry Brown (D) (apparently Loretta Sanchez filed a "Statement of Intention to run for Governor". All this means is Brown's General Election opponent will be a Democrat, not a Republican. He Should still win.)

Colorado- Scott Gessler (R) (Hickenlooper is badly wounded by the fiascos regarding guns in Colorado, and despite Udall having a stronger opponent, Hickenlooper is in worse shape.)

Connecticut- Dan Malloy (D) (Only way Republicans win this one is if Shays, Simmons or McMahon runs)

Florida- Charlie Crist/Nan Rich (D) (The main difference between Crist and Rich would likely be margin of victory... Crist would probably win in the 4-6% range while Rich would closer to the 1-2% range)

Georgia- Jason Carter (D) (Ultimately Carter has a better chance of winning than Michelle Nunn does (although not much). This race, like the Senate race will be very close, and may go to a runoff)

Hawaii- David Ige (D)- (Aiona isn't going to be a factor)

Idaho- Butch Otter (R)

Illinois- Dan Rutherford (R) (The identity of the GOP primary winner is going to be crucial in determining whether Governor Quinn will survive, Rutherford isn't the strongest theoretical nominee (That's probably Bob Dold) but he's strongest one running right now.

Iowa- Terry Branstad (R)

Kansas- Paul Davis (D) (You try winning an election with 35% approvals, as Governor Brownback has... plus of course Democrats got a decent, if a little to liberal for the state nominee)

Maine- Mike Michaud (D) (Still think Cutler has a shot, LePage probably will have his diehards and nothing more by election day)

Maryland- Heather Mizuer (I admit the primary feels like an Anthony Brown coronation, but so did the 2007 for Hillary Clinton's Campaign)

Massachusetts- Martha Coakley (D) (Hate to say it, but Coakley has (so far) redeemed herself from 2009)

Michigan- Mark Schuaer (D)

Minnesota- Mark Dayton (D)

Nebraska- Pete Ricketts (R)

Nevada- Brian Sandoval (R) (Although given his pro-choice viewpoints, I'm surprised he's not facing a significant primary)

New Hampshire- Maggie Hassan (D) (Obviously, Ayotte won't run here... but a Jeb Bradley, Frank Giunta, Charlie Bass could have pulled off an upset here)

New Mexico- Susana Martinez (R) (Unlike Nevada, where there is no serious Democratic opponent, Attorney General Gary King will keep this race relatively close and provides for a low chance of an upset)

New York- Andrew Cuomo (D) (Only way Cuomo loses is if Pataki comes out of retirement, and even then New York is so blue that I'm not sure that would work)

Ohio-  John Kasich (R) (Had Democrats managed to convince Tim Ryan or Betty Sutton, they might have had a shot here)

Oklahoma- Mary Fallin (R)

Oregon- John Kitzhaber (D)

Pennsylvania- Rob McCord (D) (Really, unless the sky falls, whichever Democrat wins the Primary will defeat Corbett)

Rhode Island- Angel Taveras (D)

South Carolina- Nikki Haley (R) (Democrats should just ran Elizabeth Colbert-Busch... Or for that matter Stephen Colbert... I'm sure the Eagle of Truthiness would love the Governor's mansion)

South Dakota- Dennis Daugaard (R)

Tennessee- Bill Haslam (R)

Texas- Greg Abbott (R) (Wendy Davis is a great candidate for Texas, but Democrats would have better served with her in the Senate race)(There are also apparently five libertarians running)

Vermont- Peter Shumlin (D)

Wisconsin- Scott Walker (R) (This race could easily be the closest in the nation, Barca's a decent candidate, but Walker remains a narrow favorite (esp. if Barca loses the primary))

Wyoming- Cyndi Hill (R) (Have Democrats ever been seriously competitive in Wyoming (other than Dave Fruedenthal)?)

 


 

[Vega]

Have Democrats ever been seriously competitive in Wyoming (other than Dave Fruedenthal)?

Wyoming has not had a Democratic U.S. senator since 1977, following Dale McGee’s loss to  Malcolm Wallop.

Likewise, Wyoming's last Democratic congressman, Teno Roncalio, resigned in 1978, paving the way for 34 years of uninterrupted Republican control.

They don't have hardly any seats in the State Legislature, either.

[Orser67]

I didn't list the races where I think the incumbent is safe.

Arizona- Ken Bennett (R)
Arkansas- Mike Beebe (D)
Colorado- John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut- Dan Malloy (D)
Florida- Charlie Crist (D)
Georgia- Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii- Neil Abercrombie (D)
Illinois- Pat Quinn (D)
Iowa- Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas- Sam Brownback (R)
Maine- Mike Michaud (D)
Maryland- Anthony Brown (D)
Massachusetts- Martha Coakley (D)
Michigan- Mark Schauer (D)
Minnesota- Mark Dayton (D)
Nebraska- The Republican nominee
New Hampshire- Maggie Hassan (D)
New Mexico- Susana Martinez (R)
Ohio-  John Kasich (R)
Pennsylvania- Allyson Schwartz (D)
Rhode Island- Angel Taveras (D)
South Carolina- Nikki Haley (R)
Texas- Greg Abbott (R)
Wisconsin- Mary Burke (D)
Wyoming- Matt Mead (R)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Arkansas- Mike Ross (D)
Colorado- John Hickenlooper (D)
Florida- Charlie Crist (D)
Hawaii- Ige (D)
Illinois- Pat Quinn (D)
Maine- Mike Michaud (D)
Michigan- Rick Synder (R)
Ohio-  John Kasich (R)
Pennsylvania- Tom Wolf (D)
Texas- Greg Abbott (R)

[badgate]

Texas- Greg Abbott (R) (Wendy Davis is a great candidate for Texas, but Democrats would have better served with her in the Senate race)(There are also apparently five libertarians running)

Do you mean U.S. senate or state senate?

[Mr. Illini]

Illinois: Bill Brady

Help us.

[NewYorkExpress]

Texas- Greg Abbott (R) (Wendy Davis is a great candidate for Texas, but Democrats would have better served with her in the Senate race)(There are also apparently five libertarians running)

Do you mean U.S. senate or state senate?

U.S Senate

[MATTROSE94]

Here are my predictions on who'll get elected governor in the respective states in 2014:
Texas (my homestate)-OPEN (now that Perry is not seeking 4th term): State AG Greg Abbott (R), who has won 5 consecutive statewide elections in 1996 and he's likely serving 2 terms from Jan. 20, 2015 to Jan. 17, 2023 because I don't see him breaking Perry's 14-year record anytime soon.

Alabama-Bob Bentley (R-incumbent): no Democrat has won the governorship since 1998 nor won statewide office since 2006, so enough said. GOP HOLD.

Arizona-OPEN (Brewer barred from seeking 2nd full four-year term despite serving out Napolitano's term): AZ Secy of State Ken Bennett (R).

Alaska-Sean Parnell (R-incumbent)

Arkansas-OPEN: Asa Hutchison (R): the AR Dems are so disorganized and imploding (due to losing both chambers of the Arkansas General Assembly to the GOP in 2012) including former AR State Treasurer Martha Shoffner (D) resigning from office due to taking kickbacks, etc.,

California-Jerry Brown (D-incumbent) winning 4th term: I'm betting in 2018, State AG Kamala Harris (D) replaces him as governor while Newsome goes for US Senator (avoiding primary bloodbath).

Colorado-John Hickenlooper (D-incumbent) secures 2nd term, but barely.

Georgia-Nathan Deal (R-incumbent): the GA Dems' best shot would be in 2018.

Florida-Former Gov. Charlie Crist (D) regains his old job and wins again in 2018, becoming Florida's first 3-term governor (he previously served 1 term from 2007-2011).

Hawaii-Abercrombie (D-incumbent)

Illinois-Bill Daley (D): Quinn is too hated and despised.

Nevada-Brian Sandoval (R-incumbent)

New Mexico-Susana Martinez (R-incumbent): although it won't surprise me if she runs for the US Senate in 2018.

NY State-Cuomo (D) wins by a bigger margin than 2010 (maybe get 70 percent) in 2014 and runs for the White House in 2016.

Maryland-OPEN: Anthony G. Brown (D) becomes the Old Line State's first African American governor and the nation's 4th African American governor in the post-reconstruction era following Wilder (VA), Patrick (MA) and Paterson (NY State).

Oregon-John Kitzhaber (D-incumbent) wins re-election, hopefully with 55 percent or more.

Oklahoma-Mary Fallin (R-incumbent) wins BIG again, sweeping 77 counties in 2014. However, once Coburn retires from the Senate in 2016, it wouldn't shock me if the GOP recruits her to run for the US Senate.

Wisconsin-Scott Walker (R-incumbent) wins by one of the biggest landslide margins since Tommy Thompson in 1998.

LOL at the races in bold!