http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/23/upshot/arkansas-a-demographic-challenge-for-democrats.html?smid=tw-upshotnyt&abt=0002&abg=1&_r=0"Twelve years later, Arkansas vies with West Virginia for the distinction of being the state where Democrats have suffered the greatest losses over the last decade. The fact that Arkansas is even in the discussion for that title is remarkable; the so-called War on Coal created a problem for Democrats in West Virginia coal country that has no equivalent in Arkansas. Nonetheless, President Obama lost Arkansas by 24 points in 2012 — the second-worst performance by a Democratic presidential candidate in the state’s history....
...Democrats say that Mr. Pryor still has a credible path to victory. But the polls don’t really show it: Mr. Pryor is stuck in the low to mid-40s, trailing Mr. Cotton by a modest but consistent margin. Very few candidates — let alone Democrats running in a state as conservative as Arkansas — manage to come back from numbers like these.
To the extent that the polls offer any cause for Democrats to be optimistic, it is that some have shown Mr. Pryor faring much better among registered voters than likely voters. Some surveys even show Mr. Pryor ahead among registered voters. If Mr. Pryor does indeed lead among registered voters — which is not at all clear — then Democrats can hope that a strong turnout operation could get many of these voters to the polls."