Manitoba municipal elections (Today: Oct 22, 2014)
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  Manitoba municipal elections (Today: Oct 22, 2014)
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Author Topic: Manitoba municipal elections (Today: Oct 22, 2014)  (Read 1666 times)
Hatman 🍁
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« on: October 22, 2014, 01:42:22 PM »

Blog post: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/10/manitoba-municipal-elections-today.html

Two great races to watch tonight. In Winnipeg, outgoing right of centre mayor Sam Katz is stepping down. Polls show a tight race between former NDP MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis and centre-right candidate Brian Bowman.

In Brandon, the mayor, former NDP MLA Shari Decter Herst is facing a tough battle against centrist Rich Chrest, the former Deputy Mayor.

Interestingly, both NDP candidates are using magenta as their campaign colours.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2014, 08:02:51 PM »

Polls have closed
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2014, 08:14:51 PM »

Judy leading in Winnipeg 39-35 so far, 27/686 polls
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2014, 08:30:29 PM »

68 polls in. Judy leads 37-35%
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2014, 08:35:36 PM »

144 polls in and Bowman is now ahead by 1%.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2014, 08:40:32 PM »

Bowman pulling away now Sad
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2014, 08:50:11 PM »

Looks like Bowman is going to win this. Argh. Shades of Ottawa's 2006 election.
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trebor204
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2014, 10:54:23 PM »

In Brandon,
Rick Chrest upsets  current Mayor Shari Decter Hirst (64.94% to 30.37*

In Winnipeg
Brian Bowman defeats Judy Waslycia-Leis (47.54% to 24.92%)

The latest poll in Winnipeg had Brian with 2% lead.
Judy at one stage was leading Brian by  41-23

====
Winnipeg
Brian BOWMAN  111504 47.54% 
Judy WASYLYCIA-LEIS  58440 24.92%
Robert-Falcon OUELLETTE 36823 15.70%
Gord STEEVES   21080 8.99%
David SANDERS  3718 1.59%
Paula HAVIXBECK   2083 0.89%
Michel FILLION   898 0.38%

Brandon


Chrest, Rick 9085  64.94 %
Decter Hirst, Shari 4249  30.37 %
Kovatch, Mark 536 3.83 %
Jacobson, John Paul 120 0.86 %







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adma
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2014, 07:48:22 AM »

Looks like Bowman is going to win this. Argh. Shades of Ottawa's 2006 election.

Or, shades of Tory vs Chow (Ford notwithstanding).  Though 40 plus years later, it's a bit late for the disgruntled Winnipeg left to call for deamalgamation (particularly considering that amalgamation happened under an NDP government)
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2014, 09:04:42 AM »

Schreyer's worst ever decision. Doesn't make sense for one municipality to have over half a province's population. And it may mean Winnipeg will never have a progressive mayor.

The only parallel in Tory vs Chow is that instead of the right wing coalescing around one candidate, it's centrists coalescing around one candidate, which doesn't happen as often.

Anyways, Winnipeg doesn't have any poll results yet, but Brandon does, so here is a map:



Chrest won every ward, but Decter Hirst won one poll and tied another. Her best ward was Rosser (Downtown Brandon), which was also her best in 2010. Still, Chrest won 50% of the vote there.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2014, 10:24:27 AM »

Schreyer's worst ever decision. Doesn't make sense for one municipality to have over half a province's population. And it may mean Winnipeg will never have a progressive mayor.

The only parallel in Tory vs Chow is that instead of the right wing coalescing around one candidate, it's centrists coalescing around one candidate, which doesn't happen as often.

Anyways, Winnipeg doesn't have any poll results yet, but Brandon does, so here is a map:



Chrest won every ward, but Decter Hirst won one poll and tied another. Her best ward was Rosser (Downtown Brandon), which was also her best in 2010. Still, Chrest won 50% of the vote there.


It's arguable weather or no Murray was a "progressive" mayor, but I believe he was a centrist New Democrat, and is now a more fitting Ontario Liberal. But he was the last centre-left mayor at least, Katz being centre-right. So they can win... just not sure how it happened, the Provincial NDP gov't being relatively unpopular did hurt JWL saddly
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2014, 10:27:54 AM »

Being a centrist provincial New Democrat in Manitoba means being a Liberal in most other provinces.  Except Saskatchewan or B.C.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2014, 09:07:50 AM »

Winnipeg results map:


The fact that Judy still won 3 wards shows you how polarized the city is. She won four wards in 2010 (she lost Fort Rouge-East Fort Garry this time).

Turnout was really good, at 50%. The candidacy of Robert-Falcon Ouellette helped turnout among the first nations community and other disadvanted groups, which allowed him to finish 2nd in Daniel McIntyre Ward (Bowman finished 3rd there!) and in Fort Rouge-East Fort Garry. He really ate into Judy's support there. She went from winning the ward in 2010, to placing third!

As suspected, Judy won the advance polls, but lost badly on election day.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2014, 05:09:16 PM »

Sad Too bad about Manitoba. Hopefully the Ontario municipals will bring some good news. It's going to be my first ever vote.
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trebor204
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« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2014, 10:12:33 AM »

Winnipeg: Who won each polling division

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/civicelection2014/mayor/Ouellette-attracted-unlikely-voters-to-make-inroads-into-downtown-neighbourhoods-280375682.html?cx_navSource=d-tiles-1

Official Results

http://www.winnipeg.ca/clerks/election/election2014/pdfs/officialresults.pdf
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #15 on: October 25, 2014, 11:51:37 AM »


Strange colour scheme...

Interesting that Ouellette won some polls... do those areas have a large Aboriginal population?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #16 on: October 25, 2014, 11:55:42 AM »

You can sort of see where Judy's former riding is from that map, she won almost every poll in the riding except for in The Maples and Tyndall Park. Map is very similar tot he 2004 election map in the riding: http://election-atlas.ca/fed/308/46012.php?e=2004
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