Manitoba municipal elections (Today: Oct 22, 2014)

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Blog post: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/10/manitoba-municipal-elections-today.html

Two great races to watch tonight. In Winnipeg, outgoing right of centre mayor Sam Katz is stepping down. Polls show a tight race between former NDP MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis and centre-right candidate Brian Bowman.

In Brandon, the mayor, former NDP MLA Shari Decter Herst is facing a tough battle against centrist Rich Chrest, the former Deputy Mayor.

Interestingly, both NDP candidates are using magenta as their campaign colours.

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Polls have closed

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Judy leading in Winnipeg 39-35 so far, 27/686 polls

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68 polls in. Judy leads 37-35%

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144 polls in and Bowman is now ahead by 1%.

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Bowman pulling away now

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Looks like Bowman is going to win this. Argh. Shades of Ottawa's 2006 election.

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Schreyer's worst ever decision. Doesn't make sense for one municipality to have over half a province's population. And it may mean Winnipeg will never have a progressive mayor.

The only parallel in Tory vs Chow is that instead of the right wing coalescing around one candidate, it's centrists coalescing around one candidate, which doesn't happen as often.

Anyways, Winnipeg doesn't have any poll results yet, but Brandon does, so here is a map:



Chrest won every ward, but Decter Hirst won one poll and tied another. Her best ward was Rosser (Downtown Brandon), which was also her best in 2010. Still, Chrest won 50% of the vote there.

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Being a centrist provincial New Democrat in Manitoba means being a Liberal in most other provinces.  Except Saskatchewan or B.C.

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Winnipeg results map:


The fact that Judy still won 3 wards shows you how polarized the city is. She won four wards in 2010 (she lost Fort Rouge-East Fort Garry this time).

Turnout was really good, at 50%. The candidacy of Robert-Falcon Ouellette helped turnout among the first nations community and other disadvanted groups, which allowed him to finish 2nd in Daniel McIntyre Ward (Bowman finished 3rd there!) and in Fort Rouge-East Fort Garry. He really ate into Judy's support there. She went from winning the ward in 2010, to placing third!

As suspected, Judy won the advance polls, but lost badly on election day.

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Winnipeg: Who won each polling division

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/civicelection2014/mayor/Ouellette-attracted-unlikely-voters-to-make-inroads-into-downtown-neighbourhoods-280375682.html?cx_navSource=d-tiles-1

Strange colour scheme...

Interesting that Ouellette won some polls... do those areas have a large Aboriginal population?

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You can sort of see where Judy's former riding is from that map, she won almost every poll in the riding except for in The Maples and Tyndall Park. Map is very similar tot he 2004 election map in the riding: http://election-atlas.ca/fed/308/46012.php?e=2004