If Republicans pick up the senate, what would actually happen?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Republicans pick up the senate in two weeks, what will they actually accomplish in 2015/16? That is, besides appointing a conservative justice or two and making a whole bunch of joke proposals that get filibustered out of existence. In other words, what can a united congress get past Obama's desk that the current divided congress can't?

Discuss.

[Frodo]

If Republicans pick up the senate in two weeks, what will they actually accomplish in 2015/16? That is, besides appointing a conservative justice or two and making a whole bunch of joke proposals that get filibustered out of existence. In other words, what can a united congress get past Obama's desk that the current divided congress can't?

Discuss.

You do realize that Barack Obama is still President of the United States, right? 

And to respond to the OP, to take an optimistic view, a number of things could get done with a Republican Congress and a Democratic President -just not to the liking of the most liberal of Democrats here. 

Of the things that could get accomplished, completing the Keystone pipeline is the most obvious.  And there is a chance (however unlikely it may seem now) that President Obama could get trade promotion authority, with which he could get the Trans-Pacific Partnership and Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership trade agreements through Congress on a straight up-or-down vote without amendments. 

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Republicans pick up the senate in two weeks, what will they actually accomplish in 2015/16? That is, besides appointing a conservative justice or two and making a whole bunch of joke proposals that get filibustered out of existence. In other words, what can a united congress get past Obama's desk that the current divided congress can't?

Discuss.

You do realize that Barack Obama is still President of the United States, right? 

I'm not saying that another Scalia will be appointed. But Obama isn't getting any more Ginsburgs, Kagans, or Sotomayors through a republican senate.

[ElectionsGuy]

Nothing

[IceSpear]

Not much. Obama will get his judicial nominations blocked or heavily curtailed. Keystone XL might be approved. Obamacare may be tinkered with, but there will be no major changes due to the veto. The GOP could try to shut down the government again.

[Lief 🗽]

The government will be shut down at least once.

[Mr. Reactionary]

inoffensive, right-of-center, low-hanging fruit

[Mehmentum]

The Republicans may try for another government shutdown, but the results of that (which party is hurt or helped) is pretty unpredictable. 

If there's a vacancy on the Supreme Court, there would be a pretty big battle over the appointment.  However, quite a few Republicans crossed over for the Kagan and Sotamayor votes, so I think Obama could still get someone acceptable.

Ironically, it might make it easier for Hillary (or whoever the Democratic nominee is) in 2016 as she could run against Congress.   

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If Republicans pick up the senate in two weeks, what will they actually accomplish in 2015/16? That is, besides appointing a conservative justice or two and making a whole bunch of joke proposals that get filibustered out of existence. In other words, what can a united congress get past Obama's desk that the current divided congress can't?

Discuss.

You do realize that Barack Obama is still President of the United States, right? 

I'm not saying that another Scalia will be appointed. But Obama isn't getting any more Ginsburgs, Kagans, or Sotomayors through a republican senate.

Like the only non bullsh**t reason that Hillary can give to vote for her is the Supreme Court. Surely they wouldn't destroy the last reason for anyone to vote for Hillary?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I take the more optimistic view that while they won't exactly be eager to cooperate with Obama, they'll at least realize that 2016 is coming up and try to put through some small bills that they can point to and say "See? We're not that bad anymore! We can govern!". It will be mildly depressing stalemate and pointless drama, but I doubt the Congressional GOP will wage a scorched earth campaign against el Presidente.

Some less-controversial ideas that Obama might sign onto that I've seen floated are:
- Reform Medicare/Medicaid via reconciliation (but how, exactly?)
- Approve Keystone XL
- Give Obama fast-track authority for TPP and possibly a US-EU trade agreement
- Approve natural gas and crude oil exports (more likely the first)
- Pass a Veteran's employment bill of some kind
- Tax reform, focusing on business taxes and energy companies
- Speed up immigration visas for more highly-educated immigrants and more border security

Some things they might slip in the above bills as rider:
- Expand offshore drilling
- Block federal regulation of fracking
- Increase amount of logging allowed in national forests
- Changes to labor laws weakening unions
- weaken Dodd - Frank

Some obscure "we're actually doing our jobs, believe it or not" items:
- Approve water projects in Oregon and Cali
- Allowing business owners to record phone calls/meetings with regulators (the paranoia is real here, people)
- Modifying some federal agencies to make things more streamlined and address concerns about the VA and pipeline permit application process and the ACA rollout
- Eliminating the requirements for government agencies to give reports to Congress about obsolete things no one cares about (there's like 4,000+ different reports given per year)
- Consolidate patent and intellectual property rules and processes
- Block the Marketplace Fairness Act (aka the internet sales tax bill)
- Export - Import Bank as a sacrificial lamb to please TEA Partiers (in exchange for tax reform for the business community)
- Common Core gets shot in the face
- strip people who join terrorist organization of their passports and citizenship
- civil litigation reform
- return power to Senate committees (more of a Reid vs. McConnell leadership-style thing)

As for Obamacare, they'll probably try to implement parts of the Patient CARE Act proposed by Hatch/Burr/Coburn last year and pursue a "gradual repeal" strategy by targeting the medical device tax and return the definition of a full-time workweek back to 40 hours (this goes along with the "We're responsible and want to actually govern" line). They could even try and repeal the employer mandate and individual mandate (or roll it back to merely catastrophic insurance), but that's a whole lot less likely while Obama still can veto. Those things (especially the first two) are very popular, and they can fight Obama on the mandates to give their Presidential nominee some ammo about how Congress tried to cooperate with Obama on changes to the ACA that the American people wanted, but he was just so stubborn about his precious law and that's why you should give us the White House so we can make the changes needed blah blah blah etc. etc. etc.

They'll take control of lots of important committees and begin some investigations to harass Obama and his governmental structure and treat hated agencies (EPA, Education) as piñatas, but the leadership knows impeachment is political suicide. They'll roast the IRS for its "targeting" scandal, the Secret Service ("Why did you fail to protect the man we're trying to destroy?!"), BenghaziBenghaziBenghzai, and kick around the EPA on coal in the name of electric bills. Could they even audit the Fed?

A big conflict will be spending bills, as they'll try and force through spending cuts on social programs and defense spending increases that Obama will be reluctant to approve. So we might have 11th hour deals to prevent shutdowns at worst, "Is another shutdown coming next week?" media hype at best. They'll put watered-down Ryan plans through with the stated goal of having a balanced budget in 10 years or so, to replay the "We're fiscally responsible!" line ad nauseum.

A SCOTUS nomination will be very interesting, but I'm not knowledgeable enough about that to comment on it. If one occurs, it will probably be the ultimate throwdown of the 2015-2017 Congress. And for other federal court nominations, they'll force Obama to pick more moderate judge.

GOP leadership will have to carry on a careful balancing act of carefully picking their fights with Obama, keeping their loose cannons in line, and help their 2016 nominee. It will be a mixed bag, disappointing die-hard TEAbags but also somewhat relieving to Democrats who feared Armageddon (but a lot of "OMG Obama y u so pushover??").  




........Or, y'know, they could shut down the government and even force a catastrophic default over the debt ceiling eventually leading to World War 3. It's whatevs.

[eric82oslo]

If there's a vacancy on the Supreme Court, there would be a pretty big battle over the appointment.  However, quite a few Republicans crossed over for the Kagan and Sotamayor votes, so I think Obama could still get someone acceptable.  

Maybe he could nominate a moderate judge from a state represented by one or preferably two, moderate Republican Senators? Like Arizona or possibly Alaska.

[SWE]

The government will be shut down at least once.

This was the first thing to come to mind when I saw this thread

[dmmidmi]

The government will be shut down at least once.

If anything happens, it's probably this.

inoffensive, right-of-center, low-hanging fruit

The most optimistic, best case scenario.

Nothing

Easily the most likely scenario.

[King]

President would have to make more time for vetoing bills.

[Suburbia]

President Obama may veto lots of GOP bills, rumors of another government shutdown, you will have a defense budget that is pro-defense, and some social conservative legislation, Keystone XL, santions against Russia, etc, Free Trade Agreement bills, and school choice reform that the House passed in July 2014. Or nothing may happen and they still get paid doing nothing.

[Boston Bread]

My advice to Senate Democrats: Get a new leader, filibuster like hell.

[pbrower2a]

My advice to Senate Democrats: Get a new leader, filibuster like hell.

I agree.

[IceSpear]

My advice to Senate Democrats: Get a new leader, filibuster like hell.

I agree.

[doomedman]

oh great, I forgot about tpp. Can't wait to be screwed by the rich at 98%.

[Orser67]

Trade agreements (TTP and possibly a transatlantic deal), cuts in discretionary spending, and judges (Obama will probably nominate some compromise picks) are the three big ones. Keystone also could get approved but I don't consider that to be particularly important.

Maybe the GOP will take another crack at immigration, but I doubt it. Some kind of tax reform is the other possibility, but again, I doubt it. I think they'll continue their strategy of trying to make Obama look bad in hopes that he'll be a weight on his party much as Bush was in 2008. So they'll try to make Obama veto popular bills and conduct investigations. And of course there's the possibility of a government shut-down if leadership gives in to the far right.

[greenforest32]

My advice to Senate Democrats: Get a new leader, filibuster like hell.

I agree.

Wouldn't Republicans want to abolish the filibuster if tonight does turn out to be R+9 (54 seats)? Changing it by a simple majority is less taboo after its recent escalating use and the resulting change Democrats made last year.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

My advice to Senate Democrats: Get a new leader, filibuster like hell.

I agree.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

My advice to Senate Democrats: Get a new leader, filibuster like hell.

I agree.

Me too, except there might not be a filibuster any more.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

My advice to Senate Democrats: Get a new leader, filibuster like hell.

I agree.

Me too, except there might not be a filibuster any more.

Then Obama needs to grow some balls and bust out his veto stamp.

[Sol]

My advice to Senate Democrats: Get a new leader, filibuster like hell.

I agree.

Me too, except there might not be a filibuster any more.

Then Obama needs to grow some balls and bust out his veto stamp.

Obama will almost certainly try to attempt some bipartisan 'great compromise' which will gain him 0 political capital. But he'll still pass yucky neoliberal policy.