NH: ARG: Shaheen +1

[Miles]

Report.

Shaheen (D)- 49%
Brown (R)- 48%

[Recalcuate]

Report.

Shaheen (D)- 49%
Brown (R)- 48%

Well, we know the race has tightened. Still Shaheen's to lose though at this point. NH may be the new IA when it comes to the margins and ahead of NC in rank order of possible Republican gains.

Still Tossup/Slight Lean D.

[tmthforu94]

New Poll: New Hampshire Senator by ARG on 2014-10-22

Summary: D: 49%, R: 48%, I: 0%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[tmthforu94]

For reference, Shaheen led 53-43 in their September 29th poll.

This is going to be close - I'll give Shaheen the edge unless we start seeing more polls that have Brown up, but a Brown win wouldn't come as a big surprise. I think this race is more likely to flip than North Carolina.

44% think Brown will win, 47% think Shaheen will win.

[Recalcuate]

For reference, Shaheen led 53-43 in their September 29th poll.

This is going to be close - I'll give Shaheen the edge unless we start seeing more polls that have Brown up, but a Brown win wouldn't come as a big surprise. I think this race is more likely to flip than North Carolina.

44% think Brown will win, 47% think Shaheen will win.

Brown seems to have some sort of momentum in NH. North Carolina for the most part seems more static. So I'd tend to agree with you that NH is the next Republican "get" so to say over NH in rank order.

It's still Shaheen's race to lose, but Brown is clearly closing.

[Brittain33]

For reference, Shaheen led 53-43 in their September 29th poll.

This is going to be close - I'll give Shaheen the edge unless we start seeing more polls that have Brown up, but a Brown win wouldn't come as a big surprise. I think this race is more likely to flip than North Carolina.

I agree. A surprise win by Brown would be the least surprising surprise I can imagine, honestly. NH can swing tremendously from election to election. Tillis winning but not Brown would surprise me more.

[free my dawg]

How ARG conducts their polling:

First, numbers are picked randomly out of a hat


Then, through a contract with the local school district, third grade students are told to take the numbers and use them as variables in the "The Supersecret Highly Intelligent Turnout formula", hereafter known as The S.H.I.T. formula


It doesn't matter if they do the math correctly - that's what the margin of error is for

ARG then randomly calls a number determined by The S.H.I.T. formula. Racial turnout is based upon what color pen the third-graders used


ARG then subtracts 7 from one of the candidates totals, 'cause 7 is their lucky number

NOTE: ARG is currently considering switching to a new polling methodology involving bloodhounds, a bundle of bananas, and a bingo parlor off I-67

[Miles]

*cough cough*

[ElectionsGuy]

We've had two joke polls show this is a toss-up, but I think its fair to say its Lean D.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

We've had two joke polls show this is a toss-up, but I think its fair to say its Lean D.

Junk poll!

Where's KCDem been for like three days?!

[free my dawg]

Report.

Shaheen (D)- 49%
Brown (R)- 48%

Well, we know the race has tightened. Still Shaheen's to lose though at this point. NH may be the new IA when it comes to the margins and ahead of NC in rank order of possible Republican gains.

Still Tossup/Slight Lean D.

...I'm sorry, are you citing ARG to justify your bias?

I can't even.

[morgieb]

I didn't realise ARG was still a thing.

[Keystone Phil]

This confirms the simple truth that the Obama Rubberstamp in independent New Hampshire is in very serious trouble.

[SWE]

Oh good, we can move this back to Safe D.