Do Democrats Always Win Close Elections?

[SPC]

http://thefederalist.com/2014/10/22/do-democrats-always-win-close-statewide-elections/

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[Mehmentum]

I can't think of any reason why this would be the case.  27 isn't that large of a sample size though, perhaps this could just be coincidence?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I suppose you could look at it like this. Closer elections at state-national levels, tend to enthuse voters, leading to higher turnout and Democrats tend to do better in elections with higher turnout.

[SPC]

I suppose you could look at it like this. Closer elections at state-national levels, tend to enthuse voters, leading to higher turnout and Democrats tend to do better in elections with higher turnout.

And this is not the case with elections decided by 1-2 percentage points?

[7,052,770]

Probably a coincidence, but could be a result of a superior GOTV operation.

Also kinda arbitrary to cut it off at 1-point victory, rather than say, a 1.1-point victory, or a 0.8-point victory, either of which would make the D/R breakdown closer.

[IceSpear]

Votes that are counted late tend to skew Democratic, meaning it's more likely Dems will keep a small lead/reverse a small Republican lead than the other way around. On election night, Obama only was winning the popular vote 50-49, but once everything was in it stretched to 51-47.

[bedstuy]

Maybe there's something to the hypothesis, but this article's methodology is FUBAR.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well, Gore did actually win the 2000 election, but he narrowly "lost".
The 2005 Virginia Attorney General election was a very narrow Republican win.
Both of Senator Jim Bunning's elections were close, including a 0.5 point win.
Senator D'Amato is another Republican known for narrow wins.

[memphis]

20 out of 27 is not always. Always has a specific meaning. Perhaps the word you were going for is usually?

[Adam Griffin]

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Well, Al Gore won the PV and GWB stole the election.

I'm sure if there were some quirky mechanics in place at the state level (where voters preferenced their choice of candidate by ballot and then the legislature was "obligated" but not really to vote for that person), then the numbers would be a lot different.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I actually think Democrats win close elections in mostly urban areas, while Republicans win close elections in mostly rural areas.

[Maxwell]

I actually think Democrats win close elections in mostly urban areas, while Republicans win close elections in mostly rural areas.

I don't quite follow.

[GaussLaw]

I actually think Democrats win close elections in mostly urban areas, while Republicans win close elections in mostly rural areas.

I don't quite follow.

I think he means more rural states give an extra boost to the GOP candidates at the end, while urban states give Dem candidates a boost.

[Frodo]

No: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Virginia,_2000

[Boston Bread]

Not always, but most of them, which seems to be the point of the article. I would chalk it up to the nature of states: There are more D+0-5 states than R+0-5 states so democrats naturally win more close statewide elections. It's the inverse of how neutrally-drawn districts favour republicans.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

No: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Virginia,_2000

Exactly.

Why is this thread a thing...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia,_2002
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Minnesota,_2002
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Missouri,_2002
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Dakota,_2004
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida,_2004
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Tennessee,_2006
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia,_2008
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Illinois,_2010
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Nevada,_2012
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona,_2012

[solarstorm]

No: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Virginia,_2000

Well, that's not what I'd call close...

[Mr. Smith]

We would've had a Governor Feinstein back in 1990, the Bradley Effect wouldn't be a concept, and Pat Toomey and Ron Johnson wouldn't have seen the light of day.

So no.

[Free Bird]

No: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Virginia,_2000

Exactly.

Why is this thread a thing...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia,_2002
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Minnesota,_2002
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Missouri,_2002
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Dakota,_2004
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida,_2004
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Tennessee,_2006
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia,_2008
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Illinois,_2010
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Nevada,_2012
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona,_2012

Add on Florida gov 2010, Florida Prez 2000, Maine Gov 2010, it could go on

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

No: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Virginia,_2000

Exactly.

Why is this thread a thing...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia,_2002
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Minnesota,_2002
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Missouri,_2002
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Dakota,_2004
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida,_2004
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Tennessee,_2006
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia,_2008
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Illinois,_2010
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Nevada,_2012
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona,_2012

Add on Florida gov 2010, Florida Prez 2000, Maine Gov 2010, it could go on

Right. Did the 2002 Senate on, and was so sick of it I didn't do gubernatorial and presidential races.

[zorkpolitics]

Perhaps the Democrats win close elections because they get a majority of illegal votes from non citizens
"How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections? More than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote. "

[Bandit3 the Worker]

"How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections? More than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote. "

That's impossible, because noncitizens can't vote.

[IceSpear]

Perhaps the Democrats win close elections because they get a majority of illegal votes from non citizens
"How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections? More than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote. "

[zorkpolitics]

"How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections? More than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote. "

That's impossible, because noncitizens can't vote.

Well they can't legally vote, but since anyone can register my mail to vote, anyone can vote.
The Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) found that actually non-citizens register to vote, as indicated above, and they do vote.  Perhaps requiring valid photo IDs will reduce this fraud.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

"How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections? More than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote. "

That's impossible, because noncitizens can't vote.

Well they can't legally vote, but since anyone can register my mail to vote, anyone can vote.
The Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) found that actually non-citizens register to vote, as indicated above, and they do vote.  Perhaps requiring valid photo IDs will reduce this fraud.

Requirement of photo ID requires you to purchase one = poll tax.