Soouth Florida to become its own state?
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  Soouth Florida to become its own state?
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Author Topic: Soouth Florida to become its own state?  (Read 2752 times)
justfollowingtheelections
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« on: October 23, 2014, 06:34:16 PM »

I'm not sure if this has been discussed yet, but apparently the city of Miami passed a resolution that favors the secession of South Florida.  According to the Miami mayor:

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bullmoose88
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2014, 06:42:30 PM »

What would be the trickle down effect on electoral votes if two additional votes had to be assigned to the floridas? (2? 5...no 3!?)
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TDAS04
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2014, 07:01:44 PM »

Which counties would be included? 
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They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2014, 07:10:59 PM »

This doesn't go far enough.

I support any motion that involves Florida's secession.
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2014, 08:37:59 PM »

What would be the trickle down effect on electoral votes if two additional votes had to be assigned to the floridas? (2? 5...no 3!?)

It would be two more electoral votes.  According to the article S. Florida has about 2/3rds of Florida's population so I think we can get an idea of which counties would be included in the new state.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2014, 09:01:46 PM »

Not a bad idea, since South Florida is different than the rest of the state.
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2014, 09:03:16 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2014, 09:05:07 PM by blagohair.com »

More articles on the story:
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/10/23/south_florida_as_51st_state_the_city_of_south_miami_votes_to_break_away.html
http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/south-florida-wants-to-be-the-51st-state-because-of-climate-change-worries-20141023
http://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/south-florida-split-north-florida-20141023
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/features/gone-viral/os-state-of-south-florida-20141021-post.html
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2014/10/22/florida-51st-state-south-florida/17705687/

It sounds like S. Florida actually has a good case here since global warming is already having an effect on the southern part of Florida but not the rest of the state.
By the way, this would be the new map:


Also, this is the full proposal for anyone who wants to read it: 
http://media.trb.com/media/acrobat/2014-10/23897709058920-21094223.pdf
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Flake
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2014, 09:07:34 PM »


Dammit. Guess I'm moving to Orlando.

By the way it looks like that map is missing two counties.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2014, 09:12:35 PM »

Indian River, Brevard, and Polk Counties are not South Florida. What a random map.
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Person Man
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2014, 09:19:44 PM »

That's like what? Two thirds of Florida's population. According to the 2010 census, that would be like 20 EVs for South Florida and 11 EVs for Florida.

I'm guessing Florida would have a PVI very similar to South Carolina or Georgia and South Florida would be very similar to Minnesota or Michigan.

Indian River, Brevard, and Polk Counties are not South Florida. What a random map.

Well, I think that was done for I-4, Cape Canaveral and to make it look less gerrymandered.
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Cubby
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2014, 09:49:16 PM »

By the way it looks like that map is missing two counties.

Holmes and Nassau?


If they want South Florida to include Orange County (Orlando) then they have to take Seminole too, since its just a giant suburb of Orlando.

Likewise, Pasco needs to stay with Hillsborough and Pinellas. Its not as if once you cross the county line you're in Alabama.

The counties I'm unsure where to place are Hernando, Lake and Volusia.
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Dereich
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2014, 10:06:25 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2014, 10:08:38 PM by Dereich »

Orlando has more in common with North Florida than South Florida; that applies to pretty much everywhere in the state, to be fair. I'd just break apart everything in the Miami orbit, so everywhere that supports Miami over any other Florida team. That would mean West Palm Beach and down. No reason to stick Tampa and Orlando in a Miami-based state.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2014, 07:05:24 AM »

If someone's curious about the electoral impact of splitting Florida in two (in this case, putting the Tampa area into SF but keeping Orlando in the Northern State), here's my take at North Florida and South Florida. Smiley
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2014, 08:33:08 AM »

I would support this 110% on the condition that they call the state New New York.
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Person Man
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2014, 08:54:36 AM »

Orlando has more in common with North Florida than South Florida; that applies to pretty much everywhere in the state, to be fair. I'd just break apart everything in the Miami orbit, so everywhere that supports Miami over any other Florida team. That would mean West Palm Beach and down. No reason to stick Tampa and Orlando in a Miami-based state.

Just Broward, Dade, PB and maybe Monroe? Nah... Orange/Osceola is definitely not part of N. Florida. Though the North Orlando metro definitely is. Even East Orlando even feels like S. Florida. Its a looong story how I got to know the area. You could probably take in Tampa without having to take in Pasco, I think. There's NPR, but that's the only metro feeling place in Pasco.
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ConnoRhett
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« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2014, 10:40:22 AM »

I'm not sure if this has been discussed yet, but apparently the city of Miami passed a resolution that favors the secession of South Florida. 
I wouldn't be surprised. Since the territory of Florida was stolen from Spain, it's quite understandable that people of Florida want to stay away from their kidnappers! I know that you may say that it was too long ago for people to remember. But as a respond you may just have a look at the percentage of the secession moods among the states, that joined the Union by annexing the territory from the Spanish!!
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Dereich
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« Reply #16 on: October 24, 2014, 11:28:27 AM »

Orlando has more in common with North Florida than South Florida; that applies to pretty much everywhere in the state, to be fair. I'd just break apart everything in the Miami orbit, so everywhere that supports Miami over any other Florida team. That would mean West Palm Beach and down. No reason to stick Tampa and Orlando in a Miami-based state.

Just Broward, Dade, PB and maybe Monroe? Nah... Orange/Osceola is definitely not part of N. Florida. Though the North Orlando metro definitely is. Even East Orlando even feels like S. Florida. Its a looong story how I got to know the area. You could probably take in Tampa without having to take in Pasco, I think. There's NPR, but that's the only metro feeling place in Pasco.

Orlando is my blind spot; I admit don't know that area very well.  However, I do know the Tampa suburbs, Clearwater and to a lesser degree St. Pete and they are MUCH more culturally similar to North Florida than South Florida. I know it doesn't make a very pretty map, but unless there's some measure I'm missing I don't see the justification for grouping Miami with pretty much anywhere else in the state but West Palm Beach.
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Person Man
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« Reply #17 on: October 24, 2014, 05:44:01 PM »

Northern Pinellas?  Definitely a good fit for Florida. St . Petersburg?  Definitely a fit for South Florida.
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Badger
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« Reply #18 on: October 24, 2014, 06:13:16 PM »

People need to understand that central Florida--the I-4 corridor and adjacent counties at least--are different from both north and south Florida. Culturally, demographically, and politically.
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Person Man
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« Reply #19 on: October 24, 2014, 06:27:35 PM »

People need to understand that central Florida--the I-4 corridor and adjacent counties at least--are different from both north and south Florida. Culturally, demographically, and politically.
It's more Midwestern than New New York or South Alabama. I mean Tampa is definitely a Midwestern city and even has a building dedicated to the retirees of Dearborn(sp?),  MI. Anything between the Florida State Fairground s and WDW on I4 is definitely North Florida. I think Orlando is pretty northernized.
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Badger
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« Reply #20 on: October 24, 2014, 06:39:52 PM »

People need to understand that central Florida--the I-4 corridor and adjacent counties at least--are different from both north and south Florida. Culturally, demographically, and politically.
It's more Midwestern than New New York or South Alabama. I mean Tampa is definitely a Midwestern city and even has a building dedicated to the retirees of Dearborn(sp?),  MI. Anything between the Florida State Fairground s and WDW on I4 is definitely North Florida. I think Orlando is pretty northernized.

It's by no means the Panhandle, but it's not Miami Beach either. It's prime swing territory, and for a reason.
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Person Man
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« Reply #21 on: October 24, 2014, 07:50:20 PM »

People need to understand that central Florida--the I-4 corridor and adjacent counties at least--are different from both north and south Florida. Culturally, demographically, and politically.
It's more Midwestern than New New York or South Alabama. I mean Tampa is definitely a Midwestern city and even has a building dedicated to the retirees of Dearborn(sp?),  MI. Anything between the Florida State Fairground s and WDW on I4 is definitely North Florida. I think Orlando is pretty northernized.

It's by no means the Panhandle, but it's not Miami Beach either. It's prime swing territory, and for a reason.

Well, it gets really conservative pretty damn quick and gets liberal again pretty fast as you approach Orlando.
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muon2
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« Reply #22 on: October 24, 2014, 08:27:03 PM »

The whereas clauses in the South Miami resolution consider tax implications and water management as the main drivers for their support of a split. The tax implication seem like a wash since 67% of the population and 69% of the sales and documentary tax is from the advocated South Florida. The water issues include reference to the South Florida Water Management District, a number of national parks and preserves, Lake Okeechobee, and the relative elevation of the north and south parts of FL.

Here's a map of the FL Water Management districts.


If you look at it none of the Tampa Bay counties are in the SFWMD, yet the major portion of the Tampa metro is in the SF resolution. Similarly the Space Coast counties of Brevard and Indian River aren't in the SFWMD either. Other than the upper reaches of the Kissimmee river there's not much of Polk and Orange is evenly split in the SFWMD. Furthermore, all of the specific natural features are in the SFWMD, so I can find no rationale in the resolution for the inclusion of counties largely outside the SFWMD in South Florida.

States don't usually get built solely on water, and that includes less than perfect control of the water resources going into and out of a state. That puts Orange and, if one considers economic connections, Osceola out as well. Highlands is a borderline call since it looks like most of the population is outside the SFWMD. Charlotte has only some small amount of swamp in the east, and is otherwise economically tied to Sarasota to the north.

Given all that, I can only find justification in the resolution for a much reduced version of South Florida. That would include only 11 counties including Lee, Glades, Okeechobee, St. Lucie, and those to the south. That amounts to only 38% of the current population of FL, compared to 67% in the resolution.

nb, if a mod wants to move this thread to Political Geography, I have no objections.
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Person Man
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« Reply #23 on: October 24, 2014, 09:24:12 PM »

The whereas clauses in the South Miami resolution consider tax implications and water management as the main drivers for their support of a split. The tax implication seem like a wash since 67% of the population and 69% of the sales and documentary tax is from the advocated South Florida. The water issues include reference to the South Florida Water Management District, a number of national parks and preserves, Lake Okeechobee, and the relative elevation of the north and south parts of FL.

Here's a map of the FL Water Management districts.


If you look at it none of the Tampa Bay counties are in the SFWMD, yet the major portion of the Tampa metro is in the SF resolution. Similarly the Space Coast counties of Brevard and Indian River aren't in the SFWMD either. Other than the upper reaches of the Kissimmee river there's not much of Polk and Orange is evenly split in the SFWMD. Furthermore, all of the specific natural features are in the SFWMD, so I can find no rationale in the resolution for the inclusion of counties largely outside the SFWMD in South Florida.

States don't usually get built solely on water, and that includes less than perfect control of the water resources going into and out of a state. That puts Orange and, if one considers economic connections, Osceola out as well. Highlands is a borderline call since it looks like most of the population is outside the SFWMD. Charlotte has only some small amount of swamp in the east, and is otherwise economically tied to Sarasota to the north.

Given all that, I can only find justification in the resolution for a much reduced version of South Florida. That would include only 11 counties including Lee, Glades, Okeechobee, St. Lucie, and those to the south. That amounts to only 38% of the current population of FL, compared to 67% in the resolution.

nb, if a mod wants to move this thread to Political Geography, I have no objections.

Well yeah, that's the thing. They have very little representation yet they are almost 70% of the state.
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Donerail
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« Reply #24 on: October 24, 2014, 09:35:10 PM »
« Edited: October 24, 2014, 09:56:08 PM by SJoyce »

I'm not sure if this has been discussed yet, but apparently the city of Miami passed a resolution that favors the secession of South Florida.

South Miami. Difference of about 407,845 people. That said, I'm in full support of this - anything that both makes the University of South Florida's name actually make sense (it'd be the flagship public university of the State of South Florida) and puts my education under the control of someone other than whoever the hell The Villages sends to the state legislature is alright with me.

Likewise, Pasco needs to stay with Hillsborough and Pinellas. Its not as if once you cross the county line you're in Alabama.
The counties I'm unsure where to place are Hernando, Lake and Volusia.

Pasco (and Hernando, as you mentioned) are in a gray area. I'd draw the line along the northern border of Pinellas and Hillsborough going along a pretty fuzzy line (that covers much of Pasco & Hernando). Most of Lake and southern Volusia would also be in that area. Volusia on the whole I'd say would go in North Florida, if only for the whole Dale Earnhardt NASCAR Daytona thing.

Indian River, Brevard, and Polk Counties are not South Florida. What a random map.

Polk is iffy, but Brevard probably goes in the new Southern Florida state we're making here - not exactly a place I'd expect to see boiled peanuts by the roadside. Brevard was largely grown and shaped by the space race of the 60s, after all. Indian River, meanwhile, is New New Jersey (in fairness, Fellsmere isn't, but the county's coast-dominated).

Orlando has more in common with North Florida than South Florida; that applies to pretty much everywhere in the state, to be fair. I'd just break apart everything in the Miami orbit, so everywhere that supports Miami over any other Florida team. That would mean West Palm Beach and down. No reason to stick Tampa and Orlando in a Miami-based state.

Just Broward, Dade, PB and maybe Monroe? Nah... Orange/Osceola is definitely not part of N. Florida. Though the North Orlando metro definitely is. Even East Orlando even feels like S. Florida. Its a looong story how I got to know the area. You could probably take in Tampa without having to take in Pasco, I think. There's NPR, but that's the only metro feeling place in Pasco.

Orlando is my blind spot; I admit don't know that area very well.  However, I do know the Tampa suburbs, Clearwater and to a lesser degree St. Pete and they are MUCH more culturally similar to North Florida than South Florida. I know it doesn't make a very pretty map, but unless there's some measure I'm missing I don't see the justification for grouping Miami with pretty much anywhere else in the state but West Palm Beach.

Orlando, at this point, certainly isn't the south. Maybe a few decades ago, but not now. As for the Bay area, we are home to the largest rebel flag in the world, admittedly, but the area is a better example of a melting pot of both cultures than probably any other in Florida. I'd be hard-pressed to call the area Southern, especially St. Pete.

People need to understand that central Florida--the I-4 corridor and adjacent counties at least--are different from both north and south Florida. Culturally, demographically, and politically.

And of course this is the objectively correct answer.
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