Politico: If Dems lose, blame Harkin, Johnson, Baucus, Levin, and Rockefeller

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

IA and MI would have been Safe D with Harkin and Levin. Even before Braley started messing up, the contest still wasn't seen as Likely or Safe D by any major prognosticator. The Michigan contest was initially viewed as Toss-Up/Lean D by every major prognosticator, it's only because of Land's terrible campaign that it's now in the Likely/Safe categories of everyone but Charlie Cook.

However, Baucus, Rockefeller, and Johnson were very vulnerable, especially the latter two, and while the democrats would have a better chance at holding those seats if they hadn't retired, the races wouldn't have been anywhere near Safe D.