HI-01: HNN/Star Advertiser (Probably by Ward Research): Tie

[cinyc]

Takai, Djou tied in dead heat in latest poll
HawaiiNewsNow.com

Takai (D) 47%
Djou (R) 47%

The Hawaii News Now article is short on poll particulars and doesn't include a link to crosstabs - yet.  But yesterday's Gubernatorial poll should give us some insight.  I doubt they ran a separate HI-01 poll.

The Gubernatorial poll was taken Oct. 11-18 by Ward Research.  It was of 605 voters (unclear from HNN if registered or likely).  That probably means the HI-01 subsample was of about 300 voters, giving the poll an MoE of around +/- 5.7.

[moderatevoter]

>Hawaii Poll

[IceSpear]

Takai will probably win, but Djou will once again do extremely well for a Hawaii Republican in difficult circumstances. Considering this district is half the state, I wonder why he didn't just run for Senate? Only a bit more risk, but a much higher reward.

[Chance92]

I automatically assume any poll in Hawaii or Alaska is junk, regardless which party it favors.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hawaii always has a token poll or two before the election to make it look like a close race before they inevitably vote Democratic. The last 2 polls in Hawaii in 2004 had Bush up. There was that Rasmussen poll in 2010 that had a 40 point Republican bias.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hawaii always has a token poll or two before the election to make it look like a close race before they inevitably vote Democratic. The last 2 polls in Hawaii in 2004 had Bush up. There was that Rasmussen poll in 2010 that had a 40 point Republican bias.

Still, reaching 45% in HI was a real achievement for Bush, and Djou may reach that mark or even a point or two above it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hawaii always has a token poll or two before the election to make it look like a close race before they inevitably vote Democratic. The last 2 polls in Hawaii in 2004 had Bush up. There was that Rasmussen poll in 2010 that had a 40 point Republican bias.

Still, reaching 45% in HI was a real achievement for Bush, and Djou may reach that mark or even a point or two above it.

In Rasmussen's epic fail 2010 poll, the Republican was at 40%. He got 21.6%.

[cinyc]

Crosstabs are now available here.  The poll was of 354 voters with a MoE of +/-5.2.

[Vega]

>Hawaii Poll

[Lief 🗽]

http://atr.rollcall.com/dccc-polls-hawaii-house-race/

DCCC has Takai leading 49-42.