How did Shelley Moore Capito not get primaried?

[IceSpear]

So a few days ago I "watched" the WV Senate debate (by watched I mean let it play as background noise) and I was startled by how liberal Capito sounded. She talked about how she supports raising the social security payroll tax cap to make it solvent, favors raising the minimum wage, is in favor of Medicaid expansion/keeping children on insurance until age 26/ban on pre-existing conditions, and is arguably pro choice (though sources differ on this one).

How in the world did she skate through the primary essentially unopposed?! She's not even an incumbent! And it's not like this is some deep blue state, it's West freaking Virginia. Meanwhile, the Tea Party is primarying far right wingers who vote the party line 100% of the time like Mitch McConnell and Pat Roberts. Truly crazy.

[moderatevoter]

If I remember correctly, there was talk of a primary challenge to her. This was pretty early on. But then it kind of... fizzled away?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, who was going to primary her, really? Let's tick through wikipedia's list of declined candidates:

1. John Raese - very weak
2. Maloney/McKinley - too moderate
3. Patrick Morrisey - Uninterested + Definitely to the right of Capito, but definitely not a McDaniel/Bright/Brannon type either.

So, really, the tea partiers had no one to go to.

[IceSpear]

Well, who was going to primary her, really? Let's tick through wikipedia's list of declined candidates:

1. John Raese - very weak
2. Maloney/McKinley - too moderate
3. Patrick Morrisey - Uninterested + Definitely to the right of Capito, but definitely not a McDaniel/Bright/Brannon type either.

So, really, the tea partiers had no one to go to.

Well I mean, it's not like they need a credible candidate. Just look at Milton Wolf, Christine O'Donnell, Greg Brannon, etc. The fact that they couldn't find a single person to rally around to primary someone who is unquestionably to the left of McConnell, Roberts, Alexander, Tillis, etc. is just strange.

[Potus]

The thing about West Virginia is that our Republican Party was built in about 2 years. Manchin was re-elected in 2008 with nearly 80% of the vote. Rocky was re-elected by a giant margin. There wasn't much of a Republican Party at all.

2010 saw Republicans become a force based on sheer force of public opinion. Our infrastructure was pretty much nonsense that cycle. You'd have to ask someone how to make phone calls an help the campaigns. Again, another cycle where there wasn't much of a party.

A lot of Tea Parties, as in organized groups, get started by sort of competing with local executive committees. They feed off existing party infrastructure and a culture of involvement among conservatives. Our party was built in the two years between November 2010 and November 2012.

The fact that the WVGOP became a relevant, persistent political force in the post-2010 era meant that we never really "got" the Tea Party. It just isn't particularly strong. Even if you look at the WV-02 open primary this year, no one was rushing to be the Tea Party candidate.

The lack of a strong, organized, motivated Tea Party meant that Shelley made it through the primary easily. You also have to acknowledge the role she played in building the WVGOP after 2010. Her campaign gave tons of money to state legislative candidates and county Republican Parties. I know my neighboring only opened up a headquarters when the "Shelley Check" came in the mail.

Good luck primarying one of the most personally popular, well-funded, well-organized figures in West Virginia politics.

[IceSpear]

The thing about West Virginia is that our Republican Party was built in about 2 years. Manchin was re-elected in 2008 with nearly 80% of the vote. Rocky was re-elected by a giant margin. There wasn't much of a Republican Party at all.

2010 saw Republicans become a force based on sheer force of public opinion. Our infrastructure was pretty much nonsense that cycle. You'd have to ask someone how to make phone calls an help the campaigns. Again, another cycle where there wasn't much of a party.

A lot of Tea Parties, as in organized groups, get started by sort of competing with local executive committees. They feed off existing party infrastructure and a culture of involvement among conservatives. Our party was built in the two years between November 2010 and November 2012.

The fact that the WVGOP became a relevant, persistent political force in the post-2010 era meant that we never really "got" the Tea Party. It just isn't particularly strong. Even if you look at the WV-02 open primary this year, no one was rushing to be the Tea Party candidate.

The lack of a strong, organized, motivated Tea Party meant that Shelley made it through the primary easily. You also have to acknowledge the role she played in building the WVGOP after 2010. Her campaign gave tons of money to state legislative candidates and county Republican Parties. I know my neighboring only opened up a headquarters when the "Shelley Check" came in the mail.

Good luck primarying one of the most personally popular, well-funded, well-organized figures in West Virginia politics.

This is a pretty good explanation. Thanks for the insight. Do you think the lack of Republican infrastructure was why Manchin outperformed the polls pretty drastically in 2010, or was something else at play there? I also remember how Tomblin was supposed to win in a landslide in 2012 only to skate by with a relatively close margin, so if that was part of the reason, they improved quite a lot in 2 years.

[Potus]

The thing about West Virginia is that our Republican Party was built in about 2 years. Manchin was re-elected in 2008 with nearly 80% of the vote. Rocky was re-elected by a giant margin. There wasn't much of a Republican Party at all.

2010 saw Republicans become a force based on sheer force of public opinion. Our infrastructure was pretty much nonsense that cycle. You'd have to ask someone how to make phone calls an help the campaigns. Again, another cycle where there wasn't much of a party.

A lot of Tea Parties, as in organized groups, get started by sort of competing with local executive committees. They feed off existing party infrastructure and a culture of involvement among conservatives. Our party was built in the two years between November 2010 and November 2012.

The fact that the WVGOP became a relevant, persistent political force in the post-2010 era meant that we never really "got" the Tea Party. It just isn't particularly strong. Even if you look at the WV-02 open primary this year, no one was rushing to be the Tea Party candidate.

The lack of a strong, organized, motivated Tea Party meant that Shelley made it through the primary easily. You also have to acknowledge the role she played in building the WVGOP after 2010. Her campaign gave tons of money to state legislative candidates and county Republican Parties. I know my neighboring only opened up a headquarters when the "Shelley Check" came in the mail.

Good luck primarying one of the most personally popular, well-funded, well-organized figures in West Virginia politics.

This is a pretty good explanation. Thanks for the insight. Do you think the lack of Republican infrastructure was why Manchin outperformed the polls pretty drastically in 2010, or was something else at play there? I also remember how Tomblin was supposed to win in a landslide in 2012 only to skate by with a relatively close margin, so if that was part of the reason, they improved quite a lot in 2 years.

Lacking GOP infrastructure is a major reason why Manchin outperformed polls. We had no meaningful voter contact operation, no turnout, nothing. The Democrats are also highly, highly organized due to the machine nature of the last 80 years in WV politics.

Really, you saw a major generational shift in the state party. The leadership transitioned from a room full of part-time 60 year olds to a full-time, enthusiastic group of 20 and 30 year olds. When you look at staffing for a WVGOP event, one of the most striking things about it is how young everyone is. The energy and motivation was there because of this new class of operatives taking charge, they also weren't afraid to actually face the problems posed to the national Party.

Voter contact has taken on a huge priority, Republican turnout is a tad bizarre when you think 2008 was just 3 cycles ago.

The major shift between 2010 and 2012 was that the party was now able to convert public opinion into votes. The state wasn't much redder in 2012 than it was in 2010, but we did a lot better in terms of actually winning. Ten years ago, Republicans would have been amazingly stunned to have 47 seats in the House of Delegates.

Another reason I think we're going to see an emerging gap between Republican polls and Republicans on Election Day is that, while we're seeing Republican infrastructure continue to improve, we're also seeing the fundamentals of the Democratic Machine decay. The UMW is an absolute shell of what they once were. Democrats are also having to shake off the corrupt reputation of voter fraud. Listen to Natalie Tennant gloat about locking up members of her own party for voter fraud. Priority number one in a GOP-controlled legislature will be enacting tort reform. Trial lawyers are the financial engine of the West Virginia Democratic Party.

The trend is very, very solidly Republican both in terms of public opinion and electoral results.

[Eraserhead]

Portraying yourself as a populist is still the way to go in West Virginia.

[Adam Griffin]

The thing about West Virginia is that our Republican Party was built in about 2 years. Manchin was re-elected in 2008 with nearly 80% of the vote. Rocky was re-elected by a giant margin. There wasn't much of a Republican Party at all.

2010 saw Republicans become a force based on sheer force of public opinion. Our infrastructure was pretty much nonsense that cycle. You'd have to ask someone how to make phone calls an help the campaigns. Again, another cycle where there wasn't much of a party.

A lot of Tea Parties, as in organized groups, get started by sort of competing with local executive committees. They feed off existing party infrastructure and a culture of involvement among conservatives. Our party was built in the two years between November 2010 and November 2012.

The fact that the WVGOP became a relevant, persistent political force in the post-2010 era meant that we never really "got" the Tea Party. It just isn't particularly strong. Even if you look at the WV-02 open primary this year, no one was rushing to be the Tea Party candidate.

The lack of a strong, organized, motivated Tea Party meant that Shelley made it through the primary easily. You also have to acknowledge the role she played in building the WVGOP after 2010. Her campaign gave tons of money to state legislative candidates and county Republican Parties. I know my neighboring only opened up a headquarters when the "Shelley Check" came in the mail.

Good luck primarying one of the most personally popular, well-funded, well-organized figures in West Virginia politics.

This is a pretty good explanation. Thanks for the insight. Do you think the lack of Republican infrastructure was why Manchin outperformed the polls pretty drastically in 2010, or was something else at play there? I also remember how Tomblin was supposed to win in a landslide in 2012 only to skate by with a relatively close margin, so if that was part of the reason, they improved quite a lot in 2 years.

Lacking GOP infrastructure is a major reason why Manchin outperformed polls. We had no meaningful voter contact operation, no turnout, nothing. The Democrats are also highly, highly organized due to the machine nature of the last 80 years in WV politics.

Really, you saw a major generational shift in the state party. The leadership transitioned from a room full of part-time 60 year olds to a full-time, enthusiastic group of 20 and 30 year olds. When you look at staffing for a WVGOP event, one of the most striking things about it is how young everyone is. The energy and motivation was there because of this new class of operatives taking charge, they also weren't afraid to actually face the problems posed to the national Party.

Voter contact has taken on a huge priority, Republican turnout is a tad bizarre when you think 2008 was just 3 cycles ago.

The major shift between 2010 and 2012 was that the party was now able to convert public opinion into votes. The state wasn't much redder in 2012 than it was in 2010, but we did a lot better in terms of actually winning. Ten years ago, Republicans would have been amazingly stunned to have 47 seats in the House of Delegates.

Another reason I think we're going to see an emerging gap between Republican polls and Republicans on Election Day is that, while we're seeing Republican infrastructure continue to improve, we're also seeing the fundamentals of the Democratic Machine decay. The UMW is an absolute shell of what they once were. Democrats are also having to shake off the corrupt reputation of voter fraud. Listen to Natalie Tennant gloat about locking up members of her own party for voter fraud. Priority number one in a GOP-controlled legislature will be enacting tort reform. Trial lawyers are the financial engine of the West Virginia Democratic Party.

The trend is very, very solidly Republican both in terms of public opinion and electoral results.

Are you guys having issues with your voter files/contacting people? I'd imagine you guys still need a few years of chipping away at the local dynamic and getting people to vote in R primaries before you can actually identify people in an efficient way. It's the same but opposite in my part of the state - we basically don't know who half of our voting bloc is because many Democrats insist on voting in state (and especially local) Republican primaries. We do have other scoring models that use data such as when people turn out, their demographics, etc to determine this sort of stuff, but it's only super-accurate when dealing with thousands of people or more at a time - can be quite inaccurate, too, when dealing with actual individuals.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sadly, it seems like Republican primary voters have finally grown a brain this cycle, and just stopped nominating unelectable loons.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Congressman Doug McKinley - Too moderate and someone as establishment-flavored as him would never primary an anointed candidate like Capito (probably from the same wing of the party, but IDK) although he'd have been a top-tier recruit if she didn't run.  I could see him running for Governor or for Senate in 2016 (although if Morrisey announces he'll be running for Governor first, McKinley would probably only consider running for Senate since he seems like he's very much a team-player).

AG Patrick Morrisey - Other than a some dude quality state legislator, he'd be the one to do it (if anyone was going to).  Morrisey seems pretty right-wing from what I've read about him, but he's really ambitious and was smart enough to realize that he could easily become persona non-grata in WV Republican politics if he ran and lost the primary or the general (or even won, but won ugly in the primary).  My guess is that he'll run for Governor (especially if Manchin doesn't), he seems more like an executive-type than a legislator; a Senate run seems unlikely.  I could also see him just running for re-election too.  If he wanted to be a legislator, he could've easily won Capito's open seat this cycle (weak primary field and it's only lean R because Mooney is such a weak candidate).  

State Senator Bill Cole - Cole strikes me as a potential rising star for the WV GOP, but he seems relatively establishment-flavored.  He's probably better off running against Rahall (assuming the latter is re-elected, if Rahall loses this year then Cole probably needs to get elected to statewide downballot office before running for something like Senate).

John Raese - This is like asking if Peter King will run for President in 2016.  Maybe, but aside from entertainment value, who cares?  It's not like he'd have a snowball's chance in hell

Rick Snuffer - If he is a tea-party type (IDK, Riley could answer that) then he'd be the type of C-list State Delegate (maybe not Snuffer, but you get the idea) we'd be talking about since Morrisey wouldn't run.  Someone this weak wouldn't have a chance against Capito.  

Riley can correct me if any of this post is wrong, but my sense is Capito got in because other than Morrisey (who is smart enough not to try to primary an anointed candidate), the WV GOP bench is basically a handful of establishment folks.  That will almost certainly change in 1-3 cycles, but we're not there quite yet.  The Democrats still control the state, even if they are on borrowed time.

[Bacon King]

Are you guys having issues with your voter files/contacting people? I'd imagine you guys still need a few years of chipping away at the local dynamic and getting people to vote in R primaries before you can actually identify people in an efficient way. It's the same but opposite in my part of the state - we basically don't know who half of our voting bloc is because many Democrats insist on voting in state (and especially local) Republican primaries. We do have other scoring models that use data such as when people turn out, their demographics, etc to determine this sort of stuff, but it's only super-accurate when dealing with thousands of people or more at a time - can be quite inaccurate, too, when dealing with actual individuals.

Case in point: according to Adam Griffin's voter files I am a solid Republican voter because I have always voted in GOP primaries except for my very first election (2008 Presidential). I vote in these Republican races to pick the local candidates that will be unopposed in the general election and to pick the moderates in the competitive statewide GOP primaries (and/or vote for the people most likely to lose)

[IceSpear]

Sadly, it seems like Republican primary voters have finally grown a brain this cycle, and just stopped nominating unelectable loons.

Yeah, I'm sure the decline of the Tea Party this year contributed to it as well. But even a joke some dude like Milton Wolf held Roberts under 50%. It's not like Capito got a challenge that she easily dispatched, but she simply didn't get one at all.

[Badger]

Priority number one in a GOP-controlled legislature will be enacting tort reform. Trial lawyers are the financial engine of the West Virginia Democratic Party.

I'll give you credit in being so up front in your admission that "tort reform" in your state is primarily motivated by partisan politics riding the back of public disdain for "ambulance chasing lawyers". Kudos indeed.

[Person Man]

Ideological voters sometimes vote for moderate pols.

[Mister Mets]

No Republican has been elected Senator in West Virginia since the late 50s, so electability could be more of a concern than in states where Republicans have a history of winning statewide office.

[Potus]

Are you guys having issues with your voter files/contacting people? I'd imagine you guys still need a few years of chipping away at the local dynamic and getting people to vote in R primaries before you can actually identify people in an efficient way. It's the same but opposite in my part of the state - we basically don't know who half of our voting bloc is because many Democrats insist on voting in state (and especially local) Republican primaries. We do have other scoring models that use data such as when people turn out, their demographics, etc to determine this sort of stuff, but it's only super-accurate when dealing with thousands of people or more at a time - can be quite inaccurate, too, when dealing with actual individuals.

Case in point: according to Adam Griffin's voter files I am a solid Republican voter because I have always voted in GOP primaries except for my very first election (2008 Presidential). I vote in these Republican races to pick the local candidates that will be unopposed in the general election and to pick the moderates in the competitive statewide GOP primaries (and/or vote for the people most likely to lose)

The party has done a really good job in the last couple of years to improve the quality of the voter file. There are some very clear voter influences in the state that have swung heavily in our direction. Such as coal miners. They were a rock solid Democratic constituency. In fact, being a coal miner was the driving influence behind their support for Democrats.

So, being able to say that being a coal miner, which we can tell with public records and consumer habits, is now a Republican influence gives us a great start on the voter file. Also, surveys have greatly improved the quality of the file. We do okay for ourselves.

Priority number one in a GOP-controlled legislature will be enacting tort reform. Trial lawyers are the financial engine of the West Virginia Democratic Party.

I'll give you credit in being so up front in your admission that "tort reform" in your state is primarily motivated by partisan politics riding the back of public disdain for "ambulance chasing lawyers". Kudos indeed.

I think it's great policy as well as good politics. There's nothing wrong with benefiting politically because you've governed well.

Congressman Doug McKinley - Too moderate and someone as establishment-flavored as him would never primary an anointed candidate like Capito (probably from the same wing of the party, but IDK) although he'd have been a top-tier recruit if she didn't run.  I could see him running for Governor or for Senate in 2016 (although if Morrisey announces he'll be running for Governor first, McKinley would probably only consider running for Senate since he seems like he's very much a team-player).

AG Patrick Morrisey - Other than a some dude quality state legislator, he'd be the one to do it (if anyone was going to).  Morrisey seems pretty right-wing from what I've read about him, but he's really ambitious and was smart enough to realize that he could easily become persona non-grata in WV Republican politics if he ran and lost the primary or the general (or even won, but won ugly in the primary).  My guess is that he'll run for Governor (especially if Manchin doesn't), he seems more like an executive-type than a legislator; a Senate run seems unlikely.  I could also see him just running for re-election too.  If he wanted to be a legislator, he could've easily won Capito's open seat this cycle (weak primary field and it's only lean R because Mooney is such a weak candidate). 

State Senator Bill Cole - Cole strikes me as a potential rising star for the WV GOP, but he seems relatively establishment-flavored.  He's probably better off running against Rahall (assuming the latter is re-elected, if Rahall loses this year then Cole probably needs to get elected to statewide downballot office before running for something like Senate).

John Raese - This is like asking if Peter King will run for President in 2016.  Maybe, but aside from entertainment value, who cares?  It's not like he'd have a snowball's chance in hell

Rick Snuffer - If he is a tea-party type (IDK, Riley could answer that) then he'd be the type of C-list State Delegate (maybe not Snuffer, but you get the idea) we'd be talking about since Morrisey wouldn't run.  Someone this weak wouldn't have a chance against Capito. 

Riley can correct me if any of this post is wrong, but my sense is Capito got in because other than Morrisey (who is smart enough not to try to primary an anointed candidate), the WV GOP bench is basically a handful of establishment folks.  That will almost certainly change in 1-3 cycles, but we're not there quite yet.  The Democrats still control the state, even if they are on borrowed time.

Something you really have to understand in order to eliminate a lot of state legislators as candidates is that our legislature is part-time. We have 90-day session and pay our legislators in $28k-$32k. They are still just as much community figures as they are political figures. I think this sort of improves the political process because we attract more folks who aren't looking to make a living in politics. Whenever you're a multiple term member of Congress, getting defeated for re-election is sort of like having to start over on a very large part of your life.

Our legislators tend to be a little bit less politically driven and a little bit more community driven. That's why you have so many votes in the House of Delegates with 70+ votes in support, despite a significant minority presence.

This difference in culture eliminates, like I said, a lot of state legislators from a Congressional or Senatorial race. You know there are better "establishment" candidates than Charlotte Lane in WV-02 that are currently serving in the Legislature. I could name a few that would have been great. The problem is, these folks don't want to move to DC and either have their kids adjust to a new school or not see them during session. This effect dramatically shrinks the bench for federal races on both sides of the aisle.

McKinley isn't necessarily moderate. He and Shelley are friends. They serve the same state and are members of the same party. Shelley and her team pulled pretty hard to help get McKinley elected back in 2010 and have been strong supporters since. She's a great partybuilder. McKinley wouldn't run against Shelley out of sheer respect. I'd say that's the largest reason he didn't run.

I think Morrisey has the potential to be a great candidate for whatever he wants to run for. I think he would need a bit more experience. People in this state also like to feel like they know their public officials. That's why Manchin saw so much success while Tomblin struggles. It's why Natalie Tennant looked like such a great candidate. Sometimes it feels like our politicians could be our neighbors. Morrisey needs to be a bit more neighborly if he wants to be a real electoral powerhouse.

Raese would not be relevant. He's also extremely pro-business. He's not necessarily Tea Party.

Snuffer was a nominee. He benefited from the WVGOP's enhanced organization that made WV-03 competitive. You can't be "tea party" when the "establishment" tried their damnedest to get you elected.

Like I said above, our bench doesn't really divide like the rest of the country's. The WVGOP became a political force in 2010. There wasn't an Old Guard vs New Guard clash because there wasn't much of an Old Guard at all. The "Establishment vs Tea Party" conflict doesn't exist here.