FiveThirtyEight: Nunn now favored to win election night
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  FiveThirtyEight: Nunn now favored to win election night		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: FiveThirtyEight: Nunn now favored to win election night  (Read 1732 times)
JRP1994
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« on: October 24, 2014, 10:08:56 AM »
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/

Nunn: 49.0% (54% chance)
Perdue 48.6% (46% chance)
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Grumpier Than Thou
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2014, 10:24:32 AM »
Good.
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Consciously Unconscious
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2014, 10:45:22 AM »
I still think it will be difficult for her to reach 50%.  I also think she'll have a harder time in the run off than in the general. 
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2014, 11:03:07 AM »
It's actually happening!
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Brittain33
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2014, 11:08:56 AM »
This is like the run-up to Obama winning North Carolina in 2008. So hard to see it could happen, and there it was. I'm not saying Nunn is a lock to win but it never seemed conceivable before.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2014, 11:55:11 AM »
She'll definitely be ahead on election night. The question is whether or not she gets the 50%+1 she needs, and I still doubt that.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2014, 11:55:55 AM »
Quote from: Peter Capaldi's Eyebrows on October 24, 2014, 10:45:22 AM
I still think it will be difficult for her to reach 50%.  I also think she'll have a harder time in the run off than in the general. 
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2014, 11:58:21 AM »
Quote from: FreedomHawk on October 24, 2014, 11:55:55 AM
Quote from: Peter Capaldi's Eyebrows on October 24, 2014, 10:45:22 AM
I still think it will be difficult for her to reach 50%.  I also think she'll have a harder time in the run off than in the general. 
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ShamDam
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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2014, 12:03:19 PM »
Quote from: RogueBeaver on October 24, 2014, 11:58:21 AM
Quote from: FreedomHawk on October 24, 2014, 11:55:55 AM
Quote from: Peter Capaldi's Eyebrows on October 24, 2014, 10:45:22 AM
I still think it will be difficult for her to reach 50%.  I also think she'll have a harder time in the run off than in the general. 
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2014, 01:05:55 PM »
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Chance92
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2014, 01:08:35 PM »
Please, God, let her win outright.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2014, 01:10:24 PM »
Y'know, I like her more. I'd welcome her if they still take the Senate outright
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morgieb
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2014, 05:50:39 PM »
Quote from: IDS Emperor Maxwell on October 24, 2014, 11:55:11 AM
She'll definitely be ahead on election night. The question is whether or not she gets the 50%+1 she needs, and I still doubt that.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2014, 07:36:28 PM »
Quote from: morgieb on October 24, 2014, 05:50:39 PM
Quote from: IDS Emperor Maxwell on October 24, 2014, 11:55:11 AM
She'll definitely be ahead on election night. The question is whether or not she gets the 50%+1 she needs, and I still doubt that.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2014, 07:47:22 PM »
« Edited: October 24, 2014, 10:25:14 PM by Recalcuate »
Quote from: IDS Emperor Maxwell on October 24, 2014, 11:55:11 AM
She'll definitely be ahead on election night. The question is whether or not she gets the 50%+1 she needs, and I still doubt that.

I don't think the general election is "over" by any means. Nunn or Perdue can win it. It's still basically a coin flip, the favorite just changed. More likely than not, it's also going to runoff.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2014, 10:15:19 PM »
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Vosem
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« Reply #16 on: October 24, 2014, 11:10:19 PM »
Missouri 1986?
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jfern
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« Reply #17 on: October 24, 2014, 11:11:47 PM »
Does 538 only project the first round?
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« Reply #18 on: October 24, 2014, 11:30:43 PM »

No, their number is the overall probability of winning, whether it's November or January.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #19 on: October 25, 2014, 10:36:41 AM »

For now, yes. They gave it a 70% chance of going to runoff today.

I think the general election itself is like 51-49 in favor of Nunn to be ahead in round one. A true coin flip.

Interestingly, they keep the Libertarian at 4.6%.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-theres-a-70-percent-chance-georgia-will-go-to-a-runoff/
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windjammer
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« Reply #20 on: October 25, 2014, 10:48:15 AM »
Inacurrate
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #21 on: December 03, 2014, 05:39:33 PM »
Quote from: morgieb on October 24, 2014, 05:50:39 PM
Quote from: IDS Emperor Maxwell on October 24, 2014, 11:55:11 AM
She'll definitely be ahead on election night. The question is whether or not she gets the 50%+1 she needs, and I still doubt that.

Indeed. Tongue
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Maxwell
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« Reply #22 on: December 03, 2014, 05:42:30 PM »
Quote from: GaussLaw on December 03, 2014, 05:39:33 PM
Quote from: morgieb on October 24, 2014, 05:50:39 PM
Quote from: IDS Emperor Maxwell on October 24, 2014, 11:55:11 AM
She'll definitely be ahead on election night. The question is whether or not she gets the 50%+1 she needs, and I still doubt that.

Indeed. Tongue

yes, I'm aware I flopped hard.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #23 on: December 03, 2014, 05:43:59 PM »
She was only 4.8% away from winning outright.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #24 on: December 03, 2014, 08:18:13 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on December 03, 2014, 05:43:59 PM
She was only 4.8% away from winning outright.

And David Perdue was only 3% from having to be in a run-off Roll Eyes
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