GA-AJC: Perdue +2
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Author Topic: GA-AJC: Perdue +2  (Read 1381 times)
JRP1994
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« on: October 24, 2014, 10:41:04 AM »

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/10/24/exclusive-ajc-poll-nathan-deal-opens-small-lead-senate-race-in-virtual-tie/

Perdue: 44
Nunn: 42
Andrew Hunt (?!?!) 6
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backtored
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2014, 10:45:11 AM »

I think that Perdue will pull it out, probably after a runoff, but I suppose it all comes down to whether Democratic investment in turning out the black vote pays off, and on that I'm still skeptical.  Georgia is a state that is pretty similar to North Carolina, so it isn't surprising that the two big statewide races are jump balls.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2014, 10:47:20 AM »


Reports of Perdue's alleged demise based on a poll showing Nunn up 2 and 3 in a runoff state are greatly, greatly exaggerated.

Hunt is polling about 3-4 points higher than the historic Election Day result. Six-percent is possible, but unlikely.  It looks like this seat may be destined to be decided on January 6.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2014, 10:49:00 AM »


Reports of Perdue's alleged demise based on a poll showing Nunn up 2 and 3 in a runoff state are greatly, greatly exaggerated.

Hunt is polling about 3-4 points higher than the historic Election Day result. Six-percent is possible, but unlikely.  It looks like this seat may be destined to be decided on January 6.

My point is that this should say Swafford. And I just realized that the actual crosstabs do, but this was really sloppy on AJC's part.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2014, 10:49:03 AM »

I think you (and the AJC) mean Swafford, and not Hunt? No way she gets 6%. Even Hunt himself will be doing good to get 5, and probably can due to ethics.

The high percentage of people voting L + the high number of undecideds = garbage.
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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2014, 10:51:59 AM »

I think you (and the AJC) mean Swafford, and not Hunt? No way she gets 6%. Even Hunt himself will be doing good to get 5, and probably can due to ethics.

The high percentage of people voting L + the high number of undecideds = garbage.

Don't like the result = garbage?

Come on dude.

All the polls are basically in the same ballpark, given MOE. And the libertarian has been polling 4-6% almost uniformly. They likely will NOT get there on Election Day.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2014, 10:53:39 AM »

Great poll!
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2014, 10:56:58 AM »
« Edited: October 24, 2014, 10:58:45 AM by NE Caretaker Griffin »

I think you (and the AJC) mean Swafford, and not Hunt? No way she gets 6%. Even Hunt himself will be doing good to get 5, and probably can due to ethics.

The high percentage of people voting L + the high number of undecideds = garbage.

Don't like the result = garbage?

Come on dude.

All the polls are basically in the same ballpark, given MOE. And the libertarian has been polling 4-6% almost uniformly. They likely will NOT get there on Election Day.

It's garbage (also known as an outlier). We have a clear trend here from (five?) polls, and this is showing the complete opposite. 7% of the electorate didn't suddenly re-neg on their choice overnight, with an additional 3-5% flipping from one candidate to another. Swafford isn't getting anywhere near 6%; that's patently ridiculous for a race like this and she'll be lucky to pull 2% when the dust settles. Hunt won't even get that, and there's a lot more at work in that race to make such a thing possible.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2014, 11:02:27 AM »

I like the part where about 90 % say they will certainly or probably still vote in the runoff in January. I'm guessing voter turnout will be alot less then.  In 2008 it went from 3.75 million to about 2.1 million, but of course that time there was a presidential election in the first round.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2014, 11:05:46 AM »

Furthermore, the poll's showing 50/50 male/female; was 45/55 in 2010. Perdue's leading by 15 among males and Nunn 13 among females.

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Miles
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2014, 11:09:21 AM »

This reminds me of the Civitas NC poll from yesterday.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2014, 11:10:09 AM »

This reminds me of the Civitas NC poll from yesterday.

More than anything, I'm just infuriated that GA's going to lose its pink status in the USE poll aggregate over this nonsense. Angry
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Miles
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2014, 11:15:56 AM »

This reminds me of the Civitas NC poll from yesterday.

More than anything, I'm just infuriated that GA's going to lose its pink status in the USE poll aggregate over this nonsense. Angry

Yeah, agree. NC isn't pink anymore because of that damn Civitas poll.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2014, 11:16:47 AM »

I think you (and the AJC) mean Swafford, and not Hunt? No way she gets 6%. Even Hunt himself will be doing good to get 5, and probably can due to ethics.

The high percentage of people voting L + the high number of undecideds = garbage.

Don't like the result = garbage?

Come on dude.

All the polls are basically in the same ballpark, given MOE. And the libertarian has been polling 4-6% almost uniformly. They likely will NOT get there on Election Day.

It's garbage (also known as an outlier). We have a clear trend here from (five?) polls, and this is showing the complete opposite. 7% of the electorate didn't suddenly re-neg on their choice overnight, with an additional 3-5% flipping from one candidate to another. Swafford isn't getting anywhere near 6%; that's patently ridiculous for a race like this and she'll be lucky to pull 2% when the dust settles. Hunt won't even get that, and there's a lot more at work in that race to make such a thing possible.

Given MOE , I fail to see how Perdue +2 is not plausible. IN any event, it shouldn't matter. It's likely looking runoff at this point.

Last 6 polls on the race.
Atlanta Journal-Constitution    Perdue +2
CNN/Opinion Research            Nunn +3
InsiderAdvantage                Nunn +2
SurveyUSA                            Nunn +2
WRBL/Ledger-Enquirer/PMB   Nunn +1
WSB-TV/Landmark                Tie
PPP (D)                                Perdue +3
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2014, 11:19:26 AM »

With Nunn gaining and the outsourcer Perdue dropping, it's no wonder the Republicans want to keep 40.000 newly registered minority voters off the voter rolls.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/10/24/ballot-dispute-in-georgia-heads-to-courts-and-could-be-a-factor-in-states-close-senate-race
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2014, 11:23:16 AM »

If republicans don't win the senate because of GA, KY, SD, and/or KS - all red states - they really need a huge reformation before 2016.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #16 on: October 24, 2014, 11:53:53 AM »

There is hope, after all
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #17 on: October 24, 2014, 04:02:46 PM »

Obviously the accurate Georgia poll of the day.
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