How many seats will Republicans have in the Senate when all is said and done?

[ShamDam]

Things are looking pretty good for the Republicans, but whether they take the Senate or not...it seems like it won't be by a large margin of seats.

Discuss.

[GaussLaw]

51.

[IceSpear]

51.

[Consciously Unconscious]

52.  West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alaska, Colorado, and Iowa.  Orman will probably win in Kansas.  Nunn may get a plurality, but I don't see her reaching 50% or winning the run off.  It could be more, if Republicans manage to make something out of New Hampshire or North Carolina.  (Or if they somehow don't lose Kansas).  

[SWE]

54. Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia all flip, Orman cacuses with the GOP

[Flake]

49

[Mister Mets]

It's a bit complex, since I could see Angus King and Greg Orman conferencing with Republicans, should Republicans get the majority. I've also read some speculation that Manchin might join the Republicans, given his incentives for 2018 (He can be a Democrat with a Republican President, or a Democrat in West Virginia running for reelection in midterms that don't go well for his party. )

So, if Republicans have 51 seats, it could quickly become 54.

I'd bet on Republicans keeping their seats, while flipping West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota, Colorado, Iowa, Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, and New Hampshire (bullish on this state due to its elasticity ).

That gives the party 54 seats. This assumes an Orman loss.

That'll be followed by King and/ or Manchin flipping. Which gives Republicans at least 55 seats.

[SNJ1985]

My current prediction is 52 seats for the GOP. Orman wins in Kansas.

[morgieb]

53 for mine. Think the Senate will look rather ugly.

[ElectionsGuy]

52

[Supersonic]

My current prediction is 52 seats for the GOP. Orman wins in Kansas.

This.

[politicus]

51 (Nunn wins, Orman wins and King doesn't switch)

[Bigby]

Either 51 or 53, so I went with 52 as a mean. I think it will depend on if Pressler or Orman win and if Angus King really switches parties.

[Free Bird]

52 or 53. They get 51 on their own, causing Orman to caucus with them. Nunn may or may not win.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'm going to be that guy who says 50 causing Joe Biden to be the tie breaker and Harry Reid to retain his majority leader post.  I think Orman will caucus with the Democrats and I think the Democrats will win just enough seats to save their majority.  Of course, whatever happens, I can see them getting the Senate back in 2016 when the Democrats defend 10 seats and the Republicans defend 24 seats.

[Frodo]

Ultimately they will come out in the end with around 55 seats -maybe even 56.  The GOP will hold on to Georgia, Mississippi, Kentucky, Kansas, and South Dakota (while they are tantalizing, I am not buying those polls showing Democrats/independents in the lead in any of those states), and will pick up West Virginia, Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, Arkansas, Louisiana, and North Carolina whether on election day, or in the subsequent run-offs, depending on the state.  A lot of these will be close, and down to the wire nail biters, but I think the GOP will ultimately pull it off.  Virginia will get even closer too as election day approaches, and with Sen. Mark Warner needlessly meddling into state politics, he will find himself winning by 5 points -possibly less.

So that's 54 seats right there.  And with Angus King and Joe Manchin either switching parties outright, or simply caucusing with the GOP, that brings their governing total to 56.  

[Suburbia]

52 seats in my opinion.

[Lief 🗽]

51 + Orman.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

51 is the most popular choice here, but 538 has it as the least likely number in the range of 49-54. He must be assuming that if it's 50 Republicans, Orman caucuses with the Democrats, but if it's 51 Republicans, Orman caucuses with the Republicans.

[TDAS04]

52

[Maxwell]

51 or 52. I assume the GOP blows one of the ones I expect them to win.

[Illuminati Blood Drinker]

50-52. Voted 52.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

49, AR, Mnt,WVa, SD and King and Orman caucus with respective parties.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

51 + Orman + King

Manchin likely waits until after 2016 to switch if he does.  He can't afford to look too opportunistic,and he almost certainly won't get anything in the next Congress that would give him the opportunity to look like someone switching out of principle. He'd be better off trying to start his own State-level third party to back him in 2018 than to look like someone who is switching just to survive.  The current political climate just isn't friendly to opportunistic switches.

[Slander and/or Libel]

I don't see King switching parties at all. That seems like fantasy to me. He knows as well as anybody does that the landscape in 2016 looks to swing back to the Dems, and that they probably won't look too kindly upon him switching back to the Dems, hat in hand, unless he's the 50th vote with a Democratic president (51st with a Republican) and has their backs up against the wall.

I expect the Republicans'll have 50-52 seats when all is said and done. I voted 50. People saying 55 or 56 are insane.