Cameron: UK won't pay £1.7bn EU bill

[ingemann]

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read more http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29754168

It looks like Cameron is seeking yet another defeat. I must say I'm impressed with his shortsigthedness, he brings this up, creating attention for it in UK and he has no chance of winning it. From a economic POV this is based on new calculations of GDP which UK have pushed for, at the same time Germany, France and Poland get money back, so they have no interest in compromising. From a political POV he has few friends in EU, UK are not a trustworthy partner for the other countries who also have to pay more (UK have to often created a united front only to leave it against they alone getting off cheaper), also he can't hope to use the British voters as a threat to EU, as UKIP taking voters from the Tories are not something which is a problem for EU (in fact Cameron staying in power is a bigger problem for the rest of EU).

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Cameron is far more worried about UKIP than he is the EU, and rightly so as far as his own political fortunes are concerned IMO.  I realize Europeans generally think British Euroskepticism is a joke, as it makes no economic sense for Britain to leave the EU.  However, since when have governments ever pursued only those policies that make sense?  As it is, it likely is the result that it is only because Scotland stayed in the UK that the UK will stay in the EU.

[BaconBacon96]

See why people think the EU is bad.

[Bacon King]

See why people think the EU is bad.

Because Cameron is grandstanding about something trivial

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

See why people think the EU is bad.

Because Cameron is grandstanding about something trivial

That's a lot of money for something trivial.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

See why people think the EU is bad.

Because Cameron is grandstanding about something trivial

That's a lot of money for something trivial.

Especially when one is given but six weeks notice before the due date.

[swl]

Cameron is far more worried about UKIP than he is the EU, and rightly so as far as his own political fortunes are concerned IMO.

The problem for Cameron is that he thinks he is demonstrating his willingness to pick fights with the EU, while what most UKIP voters actually see is his inability to win any of these fights. He's not going to attract any of them like that.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Cameron is far more worried about UKIP than he is the EU, and rightly so as far as his own political fortunes are concerned IMO.

The problem for Cameron is that he thinks he is demonstrating his willingness to pick fights with the EU, while what most UKIP voters actually see is his inability to win any of these fights. He's not going to attract any of them like that.

Which is precisely why sooner or later Cameron will have to be willing to let his bluff be called and let the Brusselcrats do their worst.  Since there doesn't seem to be any automatic tat in place to respond to Cameron's tit, this actually seems to be a reasonably good place for him to make a stand.  By the time Brussels comes to any decision on what to do, the next UK general election will likely have passed.

[ingemann]

Cameron is far more worried about UKIP than he is the EU, and rightly so as far as his own political fortunes are concerned IMO.

The problem for Cameron is that he thinks he is demonstrating his willingness to pick fights with the EU, while what most UKIP voters actually see is his inability to win any of these fights. He's not going to attract any of them like that.

Which is precisely why sooner or later Cameron will have to be willing to let his bluff be called and let the Brusselcrats do their worst.  Since there doesn't seem to be any automatic tat in place to respond to Cameron's tit, this actually seems to be a reasonably good place for him to make a stand.  By the time Brussels comes to any decision on what to do, the next UK general election will likely have passed.

The problem for Cameron is that because of the way the British election system are set up, it mean nothing to the rest of EU that UKIP get votes from the Tories, that will jut mean that Labour are more likely to gain power, which wouldn't be a problem for anybody in EU. So all this depend on Merkel, Hollande or... well anybody with influence in EU doesn't give him a nice push, it's not like he has a lot of friends in EU or the other European capitals, so I think it's very optimistic to expect anybody to do him a favour.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Cameron is far more worried about UKIP than he is the EU, and rightly so as far as his own political fortunes are concerned IMO.

The problem for Cameron is that he thinks he is demonstrating his willingness to pick fights with the EU, while what most UKIP voters actually see is his inability to win any of these fights. He's not going to attract any of them like that.

Which is precisely why sooner or later Cameron will have to be willing to let his bluff be called and let the Brusselcrats do their worst.  Since there doesn't seem to be any automatic tat in place to respond to Cameron's tit, this actually seems to be a reasonably good place for him to make a stand.  By the time Brussels comes to any decision on what to do, the next UK general election will likely have passed.

The problem for Cameron is that because of the way the British election system are set up, it mean nothing to the rest of EU that UKIP get votes from the Tories, that will jut mean that Labour are more likely to gain power, which wouldn't be a problem for anybody in EU. So all this depend on Merkel, Hollande or... well anybody with influence in EU doesn't give him a nice push, it's not like he has a lot of friends in EU or the other European capitals, so I think it's very optimistic to expect anybody to do him a favour.

If Cameron did nothing in response to this short notice tax bill, or if he caves to the Brusselcrats too soon, that is indeed what will happen.  However, as I mentioned already, Cameron likely won't face any real consequences from Brussels until after the 2015 election is over, so it makes perfect sense for Cameron to grandstand until at least then.  The danger as far as the EU is concerned is if Cameron both wins the election and has been forced to grandstand to such an extent as to make Britain leaving the EU a real possibility even if Cameron tries to dial back the rhetoric after the election.

I'm sort of reminded of the secession talk that took place over here prior to our Civil War.  The North pooh-poohed the possibility as being against the South's economic interests, which it was, even had the South departed in peace, largely because previous Southern threats to leave had never resulted in anything.  It's still a low probability event that Britain will both hold a 2015 referendum on staying in the EU and then go on to decide to leave, but continued pooh-poohing of Britain by the Brusselcrats will continue to make it possible and also serve to make leaving after some post-2015 UK election be decided upon at a rapid pace designed to forestall the possibility of compromise.

[Bacon King]

See why people think the EU is bad.

Because Cameron is grandstanding about something trivial

That's a lot of money for something trivial.

Especially when one is given but six weeks notice before the due date.

The EU contribution readjustments happen at the same time every year, and the adjustments follow a specific formula that is both known and explicitly approved by the UK government; the adjustments are made using data submitted by the UK to the EU for the specific and express purpose of letting the EU put them in the formula to determine the change in the contribution amount.

This is an expected and routine thing that the UK has explicitly agreed to, and has had months to plan and budget for - anything the Prime Minister says to contrary is just desperate showboating because he's scared [Inks]less of the UKIP

[swl]

It will end with a compromise allowing everyone to save face anyway, like always.

Cameron already changed his position and is saying now that the UK will not pay the "full amount" by December 1st, and I think the European Commission will eventually agree to reduce the bill slightly, to spread the payments over time or to include this amount in the UK contributions for the next years.

The danger as far as the EU is concerned is if Cameron both wins the election and has been forced to grandstand to such an extent as to make Britain leaving the EU a real possibility even if Cameron tries to dial back the rhetoric after the election.

It's true that many in the EU seem to be betting that Cameron will be gone in a few months, and are looking forward to it. It may backfire if the Tories happen to win.

[ingemann]

A interesting aspect are been raised in this article (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/27/david-cameron-uk-eu-rebate) about the rebate.

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So not only did Cameron know this would happen for a long time, UK also calculated the rebate from the numbers which now comes as a "shock" for the British government.

[swl]

The UK and others have been given until september 1st to pay the bill.

[Silent Hunter]

And despite what Osbourne says, it'll be the full amount, they're just taking part of the 2016 rebate.

[swl]

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Yes the part about halving the bill is a well-disguised kind of lie, it will probably go unnoticed.

[ingemann]

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Yes the part about halving the bill is a well-disguised kind of lie, it will probably go unnoticed.

I have a hard time seeing the British media being so incompetent, that they don't bring it up at all.