Was Rothenberg right about Rounds?

[GaussLaw]

I remember Rothenberg took some heat earlier on this site for basically saying the momentum was in Rounds' direction with literally 0 evidence (in terms of polling data). 

Well, now with the YouGov/Marist polls, it appears that Rounds is regaining momentum.  So was Rothenberg psychic or did he just make a lucky guess?

[Maxwell]

It could just be YouGov being terrible and Marist being off.

[GaussLaw]

It could just be YouGov being terrible and Marist being off.

Yeah, that is a possibility too.

Still, it seems there's at least some validity after-the-fact to what Rothenberg said.

I just have no idea how he came up with the idea in the first place.  Everything seemed to be looking awful for Rounds, as he seemed to keep sliding down and down.

[Maxwell]

It could just be YouGov being terrible and Marist being off.

Yeah, that is a possibility too.

Still, it seems there's at least some validity after-the-fact to what Rothenberg said.

I just have no idea how he came up with the idea in the first place.  Everything seemed to be looking awful for Rounds, as he seemed to keep sliding down and down.

I think the answer is obvious - National GOP started investing in this race, trying to nationalize it.

[RogueBeaver]

Rothenberg saw some private polling, undoubtedly.

[IceSpear]

There was a "message tested" internal poll (by POS, no less) showing Rounds up 24 points. Obviously, Rothenberg believing this at face value was incredibly idiotic, even if Rounds is doing much better than he was.

http://images.politico.com/global/2014/10/22/sd_sen_oct_poll_memo1.html

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

There was a "message tested" internal poll (by POS, no less) showing Rounds up 24 points. Obviously, Rothenberg believing this at face value was incredibly idiotic, even if Rounds is doing much better than he was.

http://images.politico.com/global/2014/10/22/sd_sen_oct_poll_memo1.html

But even if you take off 5, 10, even 15 points from rounds's lead for a house effect/bias/whatever, that's still a more significant rounds lead then we've seen in a while, and while I hate YouGov and have mixed views on Marist, it still holds that when three polls show you a more comfortable lead for a candidate, more often than not it's real. Granted, there are times when it isn't, but it is more often than not.

Still, none of this means that I am declaring SD Safe R.

I hope that PPP does an independent SD poll as part of its final round, and we'll see what Monmouth shows. But it seems that Rounds is on better footing than three weeks ago, at least slightly.

[ElectionsGuy]

Rounds has been getting over >40% and has double digit leads. He should be thankful that this is a 3-way race.

[cinyc]

I remember Rothenberg took some heat earlier on this site for basically saying the momentum was in Rounds' direction with literally 0 evidence (in terms of polling data). 

Well, now with the YouGov/Marist polls, it appears that Rounds is regaining momentum.  So was Rothenberg psychic or did he just make a lucky guess?

As I said in the original thread, Rothenberg was basing his opinion on Republican internal polling, which showed Rounds up by 10 or so.  He is not psychic and it wasn't a lucky guess.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Rounds has been getting over >40% and has double digit leads. He should be thankful that this is a 3-way race.

As a popular former Governor, he should be winning 55%-25%-20% and he probably would be if he had campaigned hard and aggressively and avoided the corruption whilst in office. He used to have a history of outperforming, as he was a surprise win in the 2002 GOP primary if what I read is correct.

[Keystone Phil]

A curious lack of (more than one) red avatars in this thread...