Seats doomed to flip with retirement

[Free Bird]

The thread about Collins got me thinking. Since I make a ton of threads, I guess I will pose this question. Which Senate seats belong to one party, but when that incumbent retires, will almost invariably flip to the other side? I'm thinking Manchin, maybe Collins, Tester, definitely Begich if he somehow wins, same with Pryor and Landrieu, and Kirk. Ideas?

[Miles]

VA without Warner this year would have been interesting.

In 2018, depending on the recruits, I'd give Republicans a better than 50/50 shot at flipping WV/MT/MO/ND if open.

For better or worse, these types of seats are getting rarer because of the polarization.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Well "doomed" is hyperbole - some Heitkamp-esque figure can run in on a white horse, but yeah, those seem like a fair bunch.

In the house, Collin Peterson's and John Barrow's distircts would be hard to maintain for the Democrats, as would Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Frank LoBiondo for the Republicans

[Mehmentum]

There is a difference between Collins and Manchin and the likes of Kirk and Begich. 

The latter were elected only because they ran in landslide elections, these seats will be in danger regardless of whether or not they retire. 

Manchin and Collins, on the other hand, or incredibly popular and aren't in danger in any way.  However, these seats are almost assured to flip once they retire because the type of Democrat/Republican that it takes to win in these states simply doesn't exist anymore.

[Free Bird]

There is a difference between Collins and Manchin and the likes of Kirk and Begich. 

The latter were elected only because they ran in landslide elections, these seats will be in danger regardless of whether or not they retire. 

Manchin and Collins, on the other hand, or incredibly popular and aren't in danger in any way.  However, these seats are almost assured to flip once they retire because the type of Democrat/Republican that it takes to win in these states simply doesn't exist anymore.

Less so with Collins. The MEGOP has some credible candidates lined up for this event, especially if Poliquin wins

[IceSpear]

There is a difference between Collins and Manchin and the likes of Kirk and Begich. 

The latter were elected only because they ran in landslide elections, these seats will be in danger regardless of whether or not they retire. 

Manchin and Collins, on the other hand, or incredibly popular and aren't in danger in any way.  However, these seats are almost assured to flip once they retire because the type of Democrat/Republican that it takes to win in these states simply doesn't exist anymore.

Less so with Collins. The MEGOP has some credible candidates lined up for this event, especially if Poliquin wins

Poliquin wouldn't play well statewide. Assuming he's elected this year (which is a big assumption considering the NRCC triaged him), he'd likely be gone in 2016 anyway.

[tpfkaw]

In the house, Collin Peterson's and John Barrow's distircts would be hard to maintain for the Democrats, as would Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Frank LoBiondo for the Republicans

Her district is R+2. Why would it be hard to maintain? (Assuming a decent candidate and a neutral year).

[Donerail]

In the house, Collin Peterson's and John Barrow's distircts would be hard to maintain for the Democrats, as would Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Frank LoBiondo for the Republicans

Her district is R+2. Why would it be hard to maintain? (Assuming a decent candidate and a neutral year).

The seat went for Obama over Romney 53-46 despite being a two-point McCain win. Rapidly Democratizing district, plus the misfortune of being in the region where Democrats actually have some semblance of a bench.

[solarstorm]

It's a fact that the GOP will lose it's Senate seat from Maine as soon as Collins retires.
However, it would be hilarious if another independent snugged this seat.