The two-years and one week out prediction.

[Person Man]

Now is not the time to eat crow or even time to be accurate but what are your honest predictions?

My random guess is-


Hillary Clinton/ Martin O'Malley 230 EVs/ 47.4%
Jeb Bush/Tom Cotton  308 EVs 51.5%

11 Closest States-
Michigan 51/48
Virginia 50/49
Minnesota 49/49
Wisconsin 49/50
Nevada 48/51
Pennsylvania 48/51
New Hampshire 48/51
Ohio 47/52
Colorado 47/52
North Carolina 46/52
Florida 46/53

[IceSpear]

Jeb Bush beating Hillary in Pennsylvania is a pipe dream, barring an economic meltdown or major scandal.

Anyway, ask me in a week once we see whether or not Walker wins re-election.

[Cory]

I'll wait until after the midterms are over. Because you just never know.

[Person Man]

I'm just expecting a situation somewhere between 2000 and 2008. In 2000, you had a popular party with a country with a position outlook losing on a technicality with a weak candidate yet picking up half the legislature and coming within 5 seats of picking up all of Congress. In 2008, you had a very weak incumbent being succeeded by what many thought was their best candidate. They lost, but were still able to set the stage for a comeback pretty quickly. This time could be totally different but things aren't that bad and probably will stay that way unless there's a terrorist attack or deflation destabilizes the economy (despite the fact that we haven't made any progress on solving any of our major long term problems and probably won't get another opportunity for years, if not decades), the democrats are running a really good candidate... but all in all, I sense that it takes a lot to get a third term and though democrats probably are doing enough for a second, they probably aren't doing enough for a third.

[New_Conservative]

I'll give it a shot, basing this on current polls more than other factors, after midterms I will make a new one.


Senator Hilary Clinton/Governor Howard Dean (D) : 50.4%
Governor Jeb Bush/Senator Marco Rubio (R) : 48.5%
Independent and Third Parties: 1.1%

[Devils30]

Hillary Clinton 54%  385 EV
Rand Paul 45%     153 EV

[Boston Bread]

52.3% Clinton/Merkley
45% Bush/Kasich
2.7% Other

Wild guesses for VPs. Kasich seems to be a safe bet for not hurting the ticket. Merkley's more of a dark horse, but he would have great appeal to the type of Democrat that isn't enthusiastic about Clinton and engages the base without losing independent appeal.
Overall, Clinton does minimally better than Obama 2012 in blue states but much better in red states. But due to the huge margins in most of them a 7% lead gets very few additional states.

Edit: The map:

[The Mikado]

I'll make the only safe prediction there is:

The GOP Primary will be the only part of this election cycle that's remotely interesting.  The General Election will be dull and obnoxious and the Democratic Primary basically nonexistent.

[Boston Bread]

I'll make the only safe prediction there is:

The GOP Primary will be the only part of this election cycle that's remotely interesting.  The General Election will be dull and obnoxious and the Democratic Primary basically nonexistent.

The senate and house in 2016 will be very interesting, no? Potential big gains to be made especially since having Clinton as the face of the party will staunch the bleeding among the white working class.

[Person Man]

My win scenario for Hillary-

Clinton 51
Bush 48

Basically, Ohio and Florida flip with Colorado, New Hampshire and Iowa.

[King]

Hillary defeats Republican nominee by a margin determined by who they nominate

[Ljube]

Hillary defeats Republican nominee by a margin determined by who they nominate

So you think Hillary can't be beaten?

[Flake]

If Walker loses, I'll post again in a week. But for now, I'm gonna say Walker/Martinez beats Warren/(S) Brown.

I understand you're saying Sherrod Brown, but the guy in MassachuNew Hampshire is Scott Brown.

[Ljube]

This is the only possible win for Republicans (Jeb Bush) achievable only if they offer something substantial to Hispanics:

[Mister Mets]

Median map.

Chris Christie/ Susana Martinez- 286 Electoral Votes
Hillary Clinton/ Michael Bennet- 252 Electoral Votes

[Person Man]

Median map.

Chris Christie/ Susana Martinez- 286 Electoral Votes
Hillary Clinton/ Michael Bennet- 252 Electoral Votes

[King]

Hillary defeats Republican nominee by a margin determined by who they nominate

So you think Hillary can't be beaten?

It's not an opinion

[NHI]

Too early to say on a map -- right now I'm calling the nominees:

Republicans: Jeb Bush
Democrats:  Hillary Clinton

[Devils30]

I think people underestimate the damage the entire GOP has done with Latinos and how tough jeb would have it to even get to 35% there. There also is not Bush nostalgia despite GOP talking hands love for him, he does pretty much the same in polls as Christie, Paul and other more conservative possibilities against Hillary.

The economy is not great now but in 2016 it's possible Obama finally begins to get a little credit. The trend line is pretty good and people in another year may start to feel it. Hillary can run very effective ads reminding voters what W was like in 2008. Tough to see Jeb winning PA or any of the upper Midwest and I think he'd have issues in Colorado and Ohio too. Hillary isn't a great fit for Colorado but Jeb as part of a DC establishment family probably lacks appeal there either.

[dmmidmi]

The great thing about a Hillary Clinton candidacy is that many of us who are older than 18 remember how good things were during her husband's presidency. The great thing about a Jeb Bush candidacy is that many of us that are older than 18 remember how sh!tty things got at the end of his brother's presidency.

The GOP establishment can pretend like this won't be in the back of most voters' minds by heaping praise upon Jeb, but they shouldn't act surprised when he gets slaughtered in 2016.

[Person Man]

Jeb Bush will be formidable. He has intriguing ideas, is well spoken and can has something for everyone who is a Republican or might consider voting Republican.  To top it off, he was a shrewd Governor of Florida.

[porky88]

The great thing about a Hillary Clinton candidacy is that many of us who are older than 18 remember how good things were during her husband's presidency. The great thing about a Jeb Bush candidacy is that many of us that are older than 18 remember how sh!tty things got at the end of his brother's presidency.

The GOP establishment can pretend like this won't be in the back of most voters' minds by heaping praise upon Jeb, but they shouldn't act surprised when he gets slaughtered in 2016.

Yep, if a Bush vs. Clinton matchup becomes a referendum on the last names, then Clinton wins. The best path for Bush is to hope for a toxic environment for Democrats in 2016, one that mirrors what the Republicans faced in 2008. If things are calm, then I don't see another Bush winning.

[ShadowRocket]

I'll bother with just the primaries for now:

As expected, Hillary Clinton runs, but gets a few challengers in the forms of Bernie Sanders, Brian Schweitzer, and/or Jim Webb. For much of 2015 the Dem primaries are pretty boring until late next year one of those challengers begins to show signs of life and does better than expected. Perhaps winning one of the early primaries. Regardless, Hillary still wins the nomination easily.

On the GOP side, it's a complete free-for-all. Jeb runs, but is an extremely weak frontrunner due to not pandering to the base on some of his more moderate views and being out of practice as a candidate. Guys like Paul, Cruz, and an Evangelical candidate like Huckabee or Santorum gain some traction but struggle to break out of their respective niches. My guess is that someone who is initially written off (Christie) or ostensibly lost in the shuffle (Walker) is the one to ultimately emerge the nominee.

[Lief 🗽]

guys Jeb Bush ain't winning no Republican presidential primary

He's arguably more out of step with the base than Romney was and won't be running against a gaggle of joke candidates who cannot raise money.

[GaussLaw]

Hillary defeats Republican nominee by a margin determined by who they nominate

So you think Hillary can't be beaten?

It's not an opinion

Come on, elections can't be proven with certainty 2 years off.  There are too many possible factors at play.  An economic crash would turn the election into a tailspin.