Republican Senate takeover = good for Hillary?
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Phony Moderate
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« on: October 28, 2014, 06:47:59 PM »

See: Harry Truman 1948 and Bill Clinton 1996. What'd you guys think?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2014, 06:53:42 PM »

There's been a couple recent threads about this.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198962.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=200408.0
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SWE
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2014, 02:39:06 PM »

Must be forum Democrat's way of coping with Tuesday's inevitable GOP wave
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King
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2014, 02:39:45 PM »

2016 is a good year for the Dems to retake it back considering all the 2010 seats up for re-election.
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2014, 05:08:09 PM »

2016 is a good year for the Dems to retake it back considering all the 2010 seats up for re-election.
True, true, but keep in mind that if Hillary has bad midterms like 2010, 2018 could see all of it undone and the GOP back in control. That really depends on how many seats flip in 2014 and 2016.


The trick for the GOP leadership from 2015 - 2017 is to
1.) block Obama's agenda and implement their own by putting through low-hanging fruit that Obama will cave to (ACA modifications, tax reform, Keystone XL, veteran's bill, etc.)
2.) control their Tea Party members (sacrifice the Ex-Im Bank, investigate a lot, beat up the EPA & Common Core)
3.) Give their 2016 candidate ammo ("Obama didn't want to compromise with us about stuff everyone supports!)" while not damaging them with embarrassing shenanigans (shutdowns, defaults, etc.)

Difficult, but not entirely impossible.
Considering what happened in the past two years, I'm skeptical that the GOP can control itself to that point.   If they can, I'd be happy.  The last thing anybody needs is another government shutdown.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2014, 06:20:21 PM »

Exactly - the GOPs strategy should be to block most, but let through a few key measures that permits them to show 'reasonableness' and not taint the GOP nominee with obstructionism and obsession with issues that no one outside of the GOP base cares about... NO IDEOLOGICAL WILD-GOOSE CHASES. However, this would also enable them to suggest Obama's weakness and inherent lame-duckness and then trying to tie it to Hillary "do we want another four years of this".

Also noting that generally Congresses failures tend to reflect badly on the President...

However, as mentioned, the GOP, especially the nut-case wing, will be so giddy that I doubt they have the self-discipline to let certain things go. So basically I see a lot of obstructionism without the strategy.
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RR1997
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2014, 07:37:09 PM »

If the Republicans do take bake the Senate, I really hope they don't try to impeach Obama. That would assure a Clinton victory in 2016.
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Vega
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2014, 09:55:47 AM »

Very good. She can blame the Republican Congress for everything.
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Ljube
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2014, 10:02:13 AM »

If the Republicans do take bake the Senate, I really hope they don't try to impeach Obama. That would assure a Clinton victory in 2016.

If they do win the Senate, I expect that they will behave - and help govern the country.
McConnell is too smart and experienced to misbehave and hand the victory to Hillary on a silver platter.
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2014, 10:39:40 AM »

Well, yes and no. The problem is that America will see a Congress even more woefully inactive than the one we have now for 2 more years. The Democratic strategy should be to pin the Republicans against the wall if they go through with their planned obstructionism. However, as Polnut said, the Republicans could just as easily pass some reasonable measures to make sure their candidate isn't totally screwed come 2016. While I don't think the economy is going to be in bad shape come 2016, it could be in bad enough shape for the GOP to say "well, we tried, but the President wouldn't do anything with us" thus propelling them to victory.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2014, 10:56:16 AM »

2016 is a good year for the Dems to retake it back considering all the 2010 seats up for re-election.
That's likely exaggerated.

There are states that will be in play, but it's not like 2014 where Democrats are defending several seats in states Obama lost by 13.5 points or more (Alaska, Arkansas, Lousiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia)

Mark Kirk is the only Senator in a really liberal state.

Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire and Pennylvania are likely to be competitive, but these are essentially purple states. Romney's seven point loss in Wisconsin doesn't suggest it's a state where Republicans need not apply.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2014, 04:09:14 PM »

Regarding the OP:

Who cares?  The country will be worse off!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2014, 04:44:28 PM »

The Republicans are going to do everything possible to entrench themselves for the 2016 elections which they probably will be unable to win fair and square.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2014, 06:26:23 PM »

She needs Shaheen back and the likes of Lisa Madigan who are great women leaders who fit well in the senate. She can win under GOP lead congress, but to show her leadership skills, hopefully will be with her in 16 in DC.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2014, 07:34:51 PM »

2016 is a good year for the Dems to retake it back considering all the 2010 seats up for re-election.
True, true, but keep in mind that if Hillary has bad midterms like 2010, 2018 could see all of it undone and the GOP back in control. That really depends on how many seats flip in 2014 and 2016.


The trick for the GOP leadership from 2015 - 2017 is to
1.) block Obama's agenda and implement their own by putting through low-hanging fruit that Obama will cave to (ACA modifications, tax reform, Keystone XL, veteran's bill, etc.)
2.) control their Tea Party members (sacrifice the Ex-Im Bank, investigate a lot, beat up the EPA & Common Core)
3.) Give their 2016 candidate ammo ("Obama didn't want to compromise with us about stuff everyone supports!)" while not damaging them with embarrassing shenanigans (shutdowns, defaults, etc.)

Difficult, but not entirely impossible.

Someone seems to have forgotten that the filibuster is still in place when it comes to legislation.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2014, 07:45:45 PM »

2016 is a good year for the Dems to retake it back considering all the 2010 seats up for re-election.
True, true, but keep in mind that if Hillary has bad midterms like 2010, 2018 could see all of it undone and the GOP back in control. That really depends on how many seats flip in 2014 and 2016.


The trick for the GOP leadership from 2015 - 2017 is to
1.) block Obama's agenda and implement their own by putting through low-hanging fruit that Obama will cave to (ACA modifications, tax reform, Keystone XL, veteran's bill, etc.)
2.) control their Tea Party members (sacrifice the Ex-Im Bank, investigate a lot, beat up the EPA & Common Core)
3.) Give their 2016 candidate ammo ("Obama didn't want to compromise with us about stuff everyone supports!)" while not damaging them with embarrassing shenanigans (shutdowns, defaults, etc.)

Difficult, but not entirely impossible.

Someone seems to have forgotten that the filibuster is still in place when it comes to legislation.
McConnell could easily do away with it if he wanted. However, that won't be necessary just yet, because there are plenty of Blue Dog Democrats who want to be seen as moderate and centrist and are happy to vote with the GOP if Obama (who wants to still be seen as bipartisan) seems likely to sign something Congress passed.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2014, 08:00:53 PM »

2016 is a good year for the Dems to retake it back considering all the 2010 seats up for re-election.
True, true, but keep in mind that if Hillary has bad midterms like 2010, 2018 could see all of it undone and the GOP back in control. That really depends on how many seats flip in 2014 and 2016.


The trick for the GOP leadership from 2015 - 2017 is to
1.) block Obama's agenda and implement their own by putting through low-hanging fruit that Obama will cave to (ACA modifications, tax reform, Keystone XL, veteran's bill, etc.)
2.) control their Tea Party members (sacrifice the Ex-Im Bank, investigate a lot, beat up the EPA & Common Core)
3.) Give their 2016 candidate ammo ("Obama didn't want to compromise with us about stuff everyone supports!)" while not damaging them with embarrassing shenanigans (shutdowns, defaults, etc.)

Difficult, but not entirely impossible.

Someone seems to have forgotten that the filibuster is still in place when it comes to legislation.
McConnell could easily do away with it if he wanted. However, that won't be necessary just yet, because there are plenty of Blue Dog Democrats who want to be seen as moderate and centrist and are happy to vote with the GOP if Obama (who wants to still be seen as bipartisan) seems likely to sign something Congress passed.

Plenty of blue dogs? If the GOP takes the Senate, more likely than not Manchin and Donnelly will be the only ones left.
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Icefire9
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« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2014, 09:12:39 PM »

2016 is a good year for the Dems to retake it back considering all the 2010 seats up for re-election.
True, true, but keep in mind that if Hillary has bad midterms like 2010, 2018 could see all of it undone and the GOP back in control. That really depends on how many seats flip in 2014 and 2016.


The trick for the GOP leadership from 2015 - 2017 is to
1.) block Obama's agenda and implement their own by putting through low-hanging fruit that Obama will cave to (ACA modifications, tax reform, Keystone XL, veteran's bill, etc.)
2.) control their Tea Party members (sacrifice the Ex-Im Bank, investigate a lot, beat up the EPA & Common Core)
3.) Give their 2016 candidate ammo ("Obama didn't want to compromise with us about stuff everyone supports!)" while not damaging them with embarrassing shenanigans (shutdowns, defaults, etc.)

Difficult, but not entirely impossible.

Someone seems to have forgotten that the filibuster is still in place when it comes to legislation.
McConnell could easily do away with it if he wanted. However, that won't be necessary just yet, because there are plenty of Blue Dog Democrats who want to be seen as moderate and centrist and are happy to vote with the GOP if Obama (who wants to still be seen as bipartisan) seems likely to sign something Congress passed.

Plenty of blue dogs? If the GOP takes the Senate, more likely than not Manchin and Donnelly will be the only ones left.
I don't think McConnell will eliminate the filibuster.  He probably knows that there is a chance that Hillary wins massively in 2016, with her coattails putting the House and Senate back in Democratic control, if only for 2 years.

So the question is this:  Are two years of getting vetoed by president Obama worth the risk of having 2 years of an unchecked Democratic control of the government?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2014, 05:35:10 AM »

2016 is a good year for the Dems to retake it back considering all the 2010 seats up for re-election.
True, true, but keep in mind that if Hillary has bad midterms like 2010, 2018 could see all of it undone and the GOP back in control. That really depends on how many seats flip in 2014 and 2016.


The trick for the GOP leadership from 2015 - 2017 is to
1.) block Obama's agenda and implement their own by putting through low-hanging fruit that Obama will cave to (ACA modifications, tax reform, Keystone XL, veteran's bill, etc.)
2.) control their Tea Party members (sacrifice the Ex-Im Bank, investigate a lot, beat up the EPA & Common Core)
3.) Give their 2016 candidate ammo ("Obama didn't want to compromise with us about stuff everyone supports!)" while not damaging them with embarrassing shenanigans (shutdowns, defaults, etc.)

Difficult, but not entirely impossible.

Someone seems to have forgotten that the filibuster is still in place when it comes to legislation.
McConnell could easily do away with it if he wanted. However, that won't be necessary just yet, because there are plenty of Blue Dog Democrats who want to be seen as moderate and centrist and are happy to vote with the GOP if Obama (who wants to still be seen as bipartisan) seems likely to sign something Congress passed.

Plenty of blue dogs? If the GOP takes the Senate, more likely than not Manchin and Donnelly will be the only ones left.

And Heitkamp. But yeah, your point is still valid. With Pryor, Landrieu, Johnson, Baucus and Begich gone there won't be many Democrats left willing to play along with McConnell.
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Icefire9
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« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2014, 09:12:20 AM »

The Republicans also have a few members who'd restrict how conservative the bills they pass can be.  Orman (if he caucuses with them), Collins, and Murkowski come to mind.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2014, 12:14:51 PM »

2016 is a good year for the Dems to retake it back considering all the 2010 seats up for re-election.
True, true, but keep in mind that if Hillary has bad midterms like 2010, 2018 could see all of it undone and the GOP back in control. That really depends on how many seats flip in 2014 and 2016.


The trick for the GOP leadership from 2015 - 2017 is to
1.) block Obama's agenda and implement their own by putting through low-hanging fruit that Obama will cave to (ACA modifications, tax reform, Keystone XL, veteran's bill, etc.)
2.) control their Tea Party members (sacrifice the Ex-Im Bank, investigate a lot, beat up the EPA & Common Core)
3.) Give their 2016 candidate ammo ("Obama didn't want to compromise with us about stuff everyone supports!)" while not damaging them with embarrassing shenanigans (shutdowns, defaults, etc.)

Difficult, but not entirely impossible.

Someone seems to have forgotten that the filibuster is still in place when it comes to legislation.
McConnell could easily do away with it if he wanted. However, that won't be necessary just yet, because there are plenty of Blue Dog Democrats who want to be seen as moderate and centrist and are happy to vote with the GOP if Obama (who wants to still be seen as bipartisan) seems likely to sign something Congress passed.

Plenty of blue dogs? If the GOP takes the Senate, more likely than not Manchin and Donnelly will be the only ones left.

And Heitkamp. But yeah, your point is still valid. With Pryor, Landrieu, Johnson, Baucus and Begich gone there won't be many Democrats left willing to play along with McConnell.
They don't even have to be member of the Blue Dog Coalition. If Obama signals he's willing to sign something in the name of compromise and bipartisanship (some on the left refer to this trait as "spinelessness"), the Democrats have good enough party discipline and unity that many will go along because Obama will.

I'm sure plenty of Democrats would agree to tax reform, a veteran's bill, ACA modifications, some deregulation efforts, and maybe even Keystone XL. The Democrats still are a big tent party and tolerate varied views more than the GOP does. And the Congressional Democrats as a whole aren't as mean-spirited as the Congressional GOP has been.
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« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2014, 12:40:23 PM »

2016 is a good year for the Dems to retake it back considering all the 2010 seats up for re-election.
True, true, but keep in mind that if Hillary has bad midterms like 2010, 2018 could see all of it undone and the GOP back in control. That really depends on how many seats flip in 2014 and 2016.


The trick for the GOP leadership from 2015 - 2017 is to
1.) block Obama's agenda and implement their own by putting through low-hanging fruit that Obama will cave to (ACA modifications, tax reform, Keystone XL, veteran's bill, etc.)
2.) control their Tea Party members (sacrifice the Ex-Im Bank, investigate a lot, beat up the EPA & Common Core)
3.) Give their 2016 candidate ammo ("Obama didn't want to compromise with us about stuff everyone supports!)" while not damaging them with embarrassing shenanigans (shutdowns, defaults, etc.)

Difficult, but not entirely impossible.

Someone seems to have forgotten that the filibuster is still in place when it comes to legislation.
McConnell could easily do away with it if he wanted. However, that won't be necessary just yet, because there are plenty of Blue Dog Democrats who want to be seen as moderate and centrist and are happy to vote with the GOP if Obama (who wants to still be seen as bipartisan) seems likely to sign something Congress passed.

Plenty of blue dogs? If the GOP takes the Senate, more likely than not Manchin and Donnelly will be the only ones left.

And Heitkamp. But yeah, your point is still valid. With Pryor, Landrieu, Johnson, Baucus and Begich gone there won't be many Democrats left willing to play along with McConnell.
They don't even have to be member of the Blue Dog Coalition. If Obama signals he's willing to sign something in the name of compromise and bipartisanship (some on the left refer to this trait as "spinelessness"), the Democrats have good enough party discipline and unity that many will go along because Obama will.

I'm sure plenty of Democrats would agree to tax reform, a veteran's bill, ACA modifications, some deregulation efforts, and maybe even Keystone XL. The Democrats still are a big tent party and tolerate varied views more than the GOP does. And the Congressional Democrats as a whole aren't as mean-spirited as the Congressional GOP has been.
If the Democrats are smart, they'll agree to some of these only if they get something they want in return (probably wouldn't be smart to do this with the veteran's bill).  If the Republicans don't cooperate, then Democrats can just accuse them of not being willing to compromise.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2014, 04:04:20 PM »

2016 is a good year for the Dems to retake it back considering all the 2010 seats up for re-election.
True, true, but keep in mind that if Hillary has bad midterms like 2010, 2018 could see all of it undone and the GOP back in control. That really depends on how many seats flip in 2014 and 2016.


The trick for the GOP leadership from 2015 - 2017 is to
1.) block Obama's agenda and implement their own by putting through low-hanging fruit that Obama will cave to (ACA modifications, tax reform, Keystone XL, veteran's bill, etc.)
2.) control their Tea Party members (sacrifice the Ex-Im Bank, investigate a lot, beat up the EPA & Common Core)
3.) Give their 2016 candidate ammo ("Obama didn't want to compromise with us about stuff everyone supports!)" while not damaging them with embarrassing shenanigans (shutdowns, defaults, etc.)

Difficult, but not entirely impossible.

Someone seems to have forgotten that the filibuster is still in place when it comes to legislation.
McConnell could easily do away with it if he wanted. However, that won't be necessary just yet, because there are plenty of Blue Dog Democrats who want to be seen as moderate and centrist and are happy to vote with the GOP if Obama (who wants to still be seen as bipartisan) seems likely to sign something Congress passed.

Plenty of blue dogs? If the GOP takes the Senate, more likely than not Manchin and Donnelly will be the only ones left.
I don't think McConnell will eliminate the filibuster.  He probably knows that there is a chance that Hillary wins massively in 2016, with her coattails putting the House and Senate back in Democratic control, if only for 2 years.

So the question is this:  Are two years of getting vetoed by president Obama worth the risk of having 2 years of an unchecked Democratic control of the government?

It wouldn't make any sense to do it next year.  On the other hand, if the GOP wins everything in 2016, it would make a lot of sense for McConnell to kill the legislative filibuster in Jan 2017.  Between the 2018 senate map and the house districts, they would be virtually guaranteed full federal control until 2021.  So if he can just persuade his colleagues to save the legislative weirdness for 2017 when it can pass, he's golden.
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