Upset of election night

[morgieb]

What do you think will be the biggest upsets of election night in Congress? Can be for both House and Senate races.

[IceSpear]

Are we judging whether or not it's an upset by the polls, or just by what you'd expect from the fundamentals? For example, Coakley/Brownback losing wouldn't be surprising to any of us, but it would be for the latter type.

[morgieb]

Are we judging whether or not it's an upset by the polls, or just by what you'd expect from the fundamentals? For example, Coakley/Brownback losing wouldn't be surprising to any of us, but it would be for the latter type.

Former, though the latter would work for underpolled races (although most competitive Senate races has had a lot of polling).

[Frodo]

John Barrow losing his bid for re-election would definitely be up there. 

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

All of the following losing would be a big upset:

Braley
M. Udall
Roberts
Hagan
Shaheen

Any of the following coming within single digits of winning would also qualify:

Weh
Oberweis
Bell
Wehby
Tennant
Curtis

Or any of the following coming within five points of winning:

Gillespie
McFadden
Land
Weiland/Pressler

[RR1997]

Weh coming within single digits.

[The Other Castro]

Nunn winning 50.01%

[Barnes]

John Barrow losing his bid for re-election would definitely be up there. 

I certainly agree with that. 

[RI]

Either Begich or M. Udall (or both) wins. I think Begich winning is fairly likely, actually.

I don't think there are any real "upset" Republican victory possibilities in the Senate. I don't think Brown has much chance, and an Iowa or Colorado or Alaska victory wouldn't be an upset. Hagan being upset is possible, but unlikely. Roberts winning isn't an upset, really. Some could be closer than expected, but I don't count that as an upset.

For Governors, Republicans could fairly easily win Connecticut and/or Massachusetts. Those could be considered upsets, I guess.

[Boston Bread]

I think some strong-red district like UT-04, AR-02, LA-06, KS-02, WV-02 will be an unexpected gain/hold for democrats.
It's hard to talk about republican senate pickups in red or swing states as upsets, really. They would have to win in a state like NH where they're behind both in polls and fundamentals for it to be considered an upset.

[Miles]

I think some strong-red district like UT-04, AR-02, LA-06, KS-02, WV-02 will be an unexpected gain/hold for democrats.

LA-06 is going to a runoff no matter what happens on election night.

[morgieb]

I think some strong-red district like UT-04, AR-02, LA-06, KS-02, WV-02 will be an unexpected gain/hold for democrats.

LA-06 is going to a runoff no matter what happens on election night.

Is that the district where the lizard is running?

[Miles]

I think some strong-red district like UT-04, AR-02, LA-06, KS-02, WV-02 will be an unexpected gain/hold for democrats.

LA-06 is going to a runoff no matter what happens on election night.

Is that the district where the lizard is running?

Yep. The biggest reason for upset potential is if one oft the lesser-funded Republicans makes the runoff with him.

[Devils30]

An upset has to be someone currently trailing by a solid margin in the polls or a complete unexpected. Gardner winning in Colorado is fairly expected at this point.

[Ljube]

I think Brown or Pryor winning would qualify as an upset.

[Mr. Reactionary]

New Hampshire may be doing that thing New Hampshire does when it decides to vote for the opposite party for the hell of it. New Hampshire elects everything at the same time and is prone to wild swings. Polls suggest D wins for Shaheen and Kuster, tossup for CSP. If someone says something stupid or the winds blow the wrong way, I could see the GOP could pickup any combination of the 3, and also the state legislature. Again, that's dependent on more mini-Akins or 1 big Akin in the last week.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Grimes pulling it out will get us out of runoff situation in Ga and La and AK indifference, hoping for a miracle.

[7,052,770]

Nunn winning outright next Tuesday would qualify as an upset, but is still plausible enough to discuss.

[Modernity has failed us]

No upset within reason on election night will upstage Eric Cantor losing in the primary.

[Brittain33]

New Hampshire may be doing that thing New Hampshire does when it decides to vote for the opposite party for the hell of it. New Hampshire elects everything at the same time and is prone to wild swings. Polls suggest D wins for Shaheen and Kuster, tossup for CSP. If someone says something stupid or the winds blow the wrong way, I could see the GOP could pickup any combination of the 3, and also the state legislature. Again, that's dependent on more mini-Akins or 1 big Akin in the last week.

This. It wouldn't surprise me if Shaheen and both reps lost on Election Day, but it would be shocking.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

New Hampshire may be doing that thing New Hampshire does when it decides to vote for the opposite party for the hell of it. New Hampshire elects everything at the same time and is prone to wild swings. Polls suggest D wins for Shaheen and Kuster, tossup for CSP. If someone says something stupid or the winds blow the wrong way, I could see the GOP could pickup any combination of the 3, and also the state legislature. Again, that's dependent on more mini-Akins or 1 big Akin in the last week.

This. It wouldn't surprise me if Shaheen and both reps lost on Election Day, but it would be shocking.

I agree about New Hampshire.  Nunn winning outright and a victory by any of the following candidates are also possible upsets: Mark Udall, Braley, Fung, the R in NV-4, Begich, Larry Hogan, Tillis, Nick Casey, Mike Bost, Pat Roberts or Greg Orman (either way, the media can and will spin this as an upset ), Mike Schauer, the Dem in ND's at-large seat, Dennis Richardson, the Dem in KS-2, the Dem in MI-11, Andrew Romanoff, Chuck Hassebrook, and the Dem in UT-4.

[IceSpear]

Begich is probably the easiest answer here.

[tmthforu94]

KS-02 is not going to flip, guys.

Basing off of what would be an upset in Atlas, not to the nation at large, I think Brown, Tillis, Nunn or Grimes winning are the most plausible upsets.

[KCDem]

Huelskamp losing. Just imagine it for a second...

[Vosem]

No upset within reason on election night will upstage Eric Cantor losing in the primary.

That was a remarkable night.

Anyway, I want to echo many of my fellow GOP posters and still feel that a victory for Scott Brown could happen, but by their very definition "upsets" are the results we don't see coming.