Can you create an Obama sweep in your state?

[Mr. Illini]

Made using Dave's Redistricting, with no racial or other demographic restrictions.



Can you do it with your state? http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/launchapp.html

[Sol]

IIRC someone had a map like that for NC on DailyKos, and they had to create one GOP sink in the Unifour/Charlotte Suburbs.

[muon2]

The more interesting challenge is to find states or significant areas that could be divided so that Obama sweeps in 2008 and loses them all in 2012. I did that for IL without Chicagoland as part of Antonio's alternate states.

Here's a cute gerrymander of your lopped-off IllinoiS. I divided it into 6 CDs using whole counties and keeping all 6 CDs within 1500 (0.2%) of the quota. I assumed that the Pubs had control after 2010, but they were willing to take some risks to make a play for all 6 seats. So all 6 CDs here voted for Obama over McCain, but Obama never gets over 52% (53% of the two-party vote) and all have a R PVI.

When I calculated the 2012 results, the gamble worked. In 2012 the favorite son effect wears off, so in the first election with this map Romney wins all 6 CDs with at least 52% of the two-party vote. The PVIs are calculated with the 2008-12 numbers.



IS-01:R+3 (Blue, Rockford-LaSalle)
IS-02:R+3 (Green, Rock Island-Bloomington)
IS-03:R+3 (Purple, Peoria-Quincy)
IS-04:R+6 (Red, Champaign-Decatur)
IS-05:R+5 (Yellow, Springfield-Edwardsville)
IS-06:R+5 (Teal, Belleville-Carbondale)

An equivalent goal could be a complete flip of all districts between 2004 and 2008 in any of the swing states that flipped R to D.

[traininthedistance]

New Jersey.  Not only are all districts Obama, they also have a Dem average, and no towns are split (all districts within plus or minus 1000 of ideal).  Obviously there have to be plenty of extra county splits; gotta work to sink Ocean and the NW.

And there's even a Hispanic-plurality (as well as a second minority-majority) district for good measure!



District 1: Obama 58.3%, Dem 56.5%.
District 2: Obama 54.6%, Dem 53.3%.
District 3: Obama 54.7%, Dem 52.8%.
District 4: Obama 53.9%, Dem 52.1%. Lowest Obama percentage.
District 5: Obama 54.1%, Dem 52.7%.
District 6: Obama 54.9%, Dem 54.6%.
District 7: Obama 57.1%, Dem 51.6%.  53W/15B/22H; 56W/14B/21H by VAP.
District 8: Obama 69.3%, Dem 69.5%.  Hispanic plurality- 35W/10B/39H; 38W/10B/37H by VAP. It's possible, and a lot neater, to keep Hudson County compact and not have too many strips in North Jersey.  The tossup/tilt-R Meadowlands towns help.
District 9: Obama 54.8%, Dem 54.6%.  Entirely within Bergen!
District 10: Obama 62.8%, Dem 60.2%. 46W/23B/20H; 48/22/21 by VAP.
District 11: Obama 61.0%, Dem 55.2%.  55W/26B/11H; 57/25/10 by VAP.  Highest black percentage.
District 12: Obama 54.2%, Dem 51.1%. Lowest Dem percentage.

Not all of these districts would be secure for the Dems: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 12 would be tossups or worse.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

New Jersey.  Not only are all districts Obama, they also have a Dem average, and no towns are split (all districts within plus or minus 1000 of ideal).  Obviously there have to be plenty of extra county splits; gotta work to sink Ocean and the NW.

And there's even a Hispanic-plurality (as well as a second minority-majority) district for good measure!



District 1: Obama 58.3%, Dem 56.5%.
District 2: Obama 54.6%, Dem 53.3%.
District 3: Obama 54.7%, Dem 52.8%.
District 4: Obama 53.9%, Dem 52.1%. Lowest Obama percentage.
District 5: Obama 54.1%, Dem 52.7%.
District 6: Obama 54.9%, Dem 54.6%.
District 7: Obama 57.1%, Dem 51.6%.  53W/15B/22H; 56W/14B/21H by VAP.
District 8: Obama 69.3%, Dem 69.5%.  Hispanic plurality- 35W/10B/39H; 38W/10B/37H by VAP. It's possible, and a lot neater, to keep Hudson County compact and not have too many strips in North Jersey.  The tossup/tilt-R Meadowlands towns help.
District 9: Obama 54.8%, Dem 54.6%.  Entirely within Bergen!
District 10: Obama 62.8%, Dem 60.2%. 46W/23B/20H; 48/22/21 by VAP.
District 11: Obama 61.0%, Dem 55.2%.  55W/26B/11H; 57/25/10 by VAP.  Highest black percentage.
District 12: Obama 54.2%, Dem 51.1%. Lowest Dem percentage.

Not all of these districts would be secure for the Dems: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 12 would be tossups or worse.

traininthedistance, you are now one of my absolute favorite posters for pairing the richest towns in Ocean County with the City Of Camden in your hypothetical.  I love it!

[memphis]

IIRC someone had a map like that for NC on DailyKos, and they had to create one GOP sink in the Unifour/Charlotte Suburbs.

Yeah, it's not mathematically possible for Obama to win every district in a state that he didn't win. So, as for the OP, no I can't. Because nobody can.

[traininthedistance]

Who doesn't love having four districts that span all the way from Philly to Lancaster, and beyond?

Nobody, that's who.



All districts are both Obama-in-08 and Dem average.  Only three munis are split: Pittsburgh is in 2 districts, Philly in 7, and one two precincts is split off of Ridley Twp. in Delco, an isolated, mostly industrial area by the river that needs to serve as a bridge for 9.  Both Philly and Pittsburgh keep wards whole.

Bucks County remains whole, because of course it does.





District 1: 59.1% Obama, 59.7% Dem.  Mostly within the city, population-wise at least!
District 2: 57.7% Obama, 53.8% Dem.  18% black.  West Philly-to-Shippensburg, no big thang.
District 3: 51.5% Obama, 50.2% Dem.  This is actually a plausible shape for the real CD-3.  How did that happen?!?
District 4: 49.9% Obama (49.1% McCain), 53.6% Dem.  I assume all of the Western PA districts flipped in 2012; they need to be drawn razor-tight even for 2008.
District 5: 51.9% Obama, 50.3% Dem.  I couldn't quite make this whole-county.  Alas.
District 6: 58.0% Obama, 54.2% Dem.  14% black.  And yet Jim Gerlach will still probably win it somehow.
District 7: 55.0% Obama, 52.8% Dem.  17% black.  UPenn to... god I don't even know what's over there.  And yet not that much worse than the current CD-7!
District 8: 53.6% Obama, 52.0% Dem.  Bucks, just 'cause I can.
District 9: 52.5% Obama, 50.9% Dem.  City Hall to Altoona.  Oh yeah.
District 10: 51.4% Obama, 50.2% Dem.  Not that a Dem would actually win here of course (not that this is the only such district ).
District 11: 53.9% Obama, 52.7% Dem.  Here's a relatively compact one.
District 12: 49.5% Obama (49.4% McCain), 54.3% Dem.  Obama won by 207 votes.  As is usual in the west, the Dem average isn't as much a worry (the converse is true most elsewhere).
District 13: 66.8% Obama, 63.4% Dem. 27% black.  As Dem as it gets. Would love to share the wealth here with some other districts... but only so many spaghetti strings one can make.  And it's not like I'm gonna split Bucks to do it.
District 14: 50.2% Obama, 52.3% Dem.  Pittsburgh and lotsa rural.
District 15: 63.8% Obama, 62.0% Dem.  18% black, 14% Hispanic.  Our last slice of Philly.
District 16: 55.2% Obama, 50.5% Dem.  Stops short of Philly.  Such restraint!
District 17: 53.5% Obama, 50.5% Dem.  Aside from 3, this is the district that remains closest-in-spirit to its real-world predecessor.
District 18: 49.5% Obama (49.3% McCain), 54.7% Dem.  Rest of the SW.  And there you have it.

I assume you can't do 18-0 while honoring the VRA... might try to see if 17-1 is possible at some point.

[muon2]

Here's my entry for IN. No munis/townships are split, and in Indianapolis the old townships are preserved. All deviations are under 300, and all CDs were won by Obama in 2008. The districts are between R+2 and R+4, and given the swing in IN they were all likely lost by Obama in 2012.



CD 1: 50.2-49.0
CD 2: 49.8-49.2
CD 3: 49.6-49.4
CD 4: 50.0-48.9
CD 5: 49.6-49.2
CD 6: 50.2-48.7
CD 7: 49.7-49.3
CD 8: 50.9-48.0
CD 9: 49.7-49.1

[traininthedistance]

IIRC someone had a map like that for NC on DailyKos, and they had to create one GOP sink in the Unifour/Charlotte Suburbs.

Is that a challenge?  I'm taking it as a challenge.  

All of these districts were won by Obama in 2008, all of them plus/minus 1K population, I even tried to keep the East clean- but of course I had to give up on that in Western NC.







Numbers are Obama/McCain.

District 1: 49.7/49.5; Dem average 52.1. 30% black.
District 2: 49.8/49.5; Dem average 51.2. 28% black.
District 3: 49.7/49.6; Dem average 52.8. 31% black.
District 4: 49.6/49.4; Dem average 49.1.  
District 5: 49.5/49.5; Dem average 49.3. 20% black. Obama won this by 52 votes.
District 6: 49.6/49.5; Dem average 48.2. 22% black.
District 7: 49.6/49.5; Dem average 52.1. 23% black.
District 8: 49.6/49.6; Dem average 47.9. 24% black. Obama won this by 20 votes.
District 9: 49.6/49.5; Dem average 49.5. 23% black.
District 10: 49.6/49.5; Dem average 47.5.
District 11: 49.4/49.3; Dem average 50.2. Lotsa tendrils here.
District 12: 50.2/48.8; Dem average 47.1. As Obama as it gets.  Sad that I had to send the arm up and around to south Winston-Salem, but couldn't quite split 5/6/12 neatly and get them all over the line.
District 13: 49.6/49.5; Dem average 49.4.

I don't know if Romney swept this map or not; the swing in NC was uneven and I could imagine Obama holding on in maybe 7 or 8 or something like that (given that he actually improved around Fayetteville it seems).

[Potus]

Impossible. Mitt won every county.

[traininthedistance]

Here's a neat party trick.  Michigan, where:

a) all districts were won by Obama in 2008
b) the VRA is kept, with two BVAP-majority districts
c) the usual Michigan rules are basically hewn to- no districts are more than 1K off ideal population, no munis are split besides Detroit, no gratuitous county splits or even bridges.  Caveat: I did not necessarily reach to maximize whole-county groups, however.  Some extra hunting may be able to get one or two more such groups, but I've made enough of these maps for now.
d) except for the two VRA districts, all districts have a Republican average.

If one throws out the VRA it should be possible to make 14 Obama/Republican districts; whether doing so is compatible with Michigan Rules is not something I've tested, but I'm dubious- I assume that you need to send out a number of double-spanning ribbons from Detroit to Grand Rapids.







District 1: Obama 49.5% (McCain 48.7%); Dem 45.1%.  The UP and other northern parts. Whole-county.
District 2: Obama 50.2%, Dem 42.1%. Bay City, Midland, the western shore, etc.
District 3: Obama 52.3%, Dem 39.9%.  Muskegon, Grand Rapids, Holland.
District 4: Obama 54.5%, Dem 47.3%.  Saginaw, the Thumb, north of Flint.
District 5: Obama 57.5%, Dem 48.5%.  Flint, Livingston County, Ypsilanti, north of Lansing.
District 6: Obama 53.1%, Dem 44.0%.  Kalamazoo, Niles/Benton Harbor.
District 7: Obama 53.3%, Dem 41.9%.  Lansing, Grand Rapids burbs.
District 8: Obama 57.0%, Dem 47.3%.  Ann Arbor, Battle Creek, Jackson.
District 9: Obama 51.1%, Dem 41.3%.  Parts of Macomb and Oakland.
District 10: Obama 54.6%, Dem 47.4%.  St. Clair and the rest of Macomb.
District 11: Obama 55.2%, Dem 43.9%.  The bulk of Oakland.
District 12: Obama 54.8%, Dem 45.9%.  Western Wayne, Monroe, part of Lenawee.
District 13: Obama 78.9%, Dem 69.4%.  53.3% black (51.9% BVAP).  Eastern Detroit, the Grosse Pointes, Romulus, Southtowns.
District 14: Obama 80.9%, Dem 71.3%.  51.6% black (51.2% BVAP).  Western Detroit, Dearborn, bit of Oakland.

[muon2]

Here's a neat party trick.  Michigan, where:

a) all districts were won by Obama in 2008
b) the VRA is kept, with two BVAP-majority districts
c) the usual Michigan rules are basically hewn to- no districts are more than 1K off ideal population, no munis are split besides Detroit, no gratuitous county splits or even bridges.  Caveat: I did not necessarily reach to maximize whole-county groups, however.  Some extra hunting may be able to get one or two more such groups, but I've made enough of these maps for now.
d) except for the two VRA districts, all districts have a Republican average.

If one throws out the VRA it should be possible to make 14 Obama/Republican districts; whether doing so is compatible with Michigan Rules is not something I've tested, but I'm dubious- I assume that you need to send out a number of double-spanning ribbons from Detroit to Grand Rapids.







District 1: Obama 49.5% (McCain 48.7%); Dem 45.1%.  The UP and other northern parts. Whole-county.
District 2: Obama 50.2%, Dem 42.1%. Bay City, Midland, the western shore, etc.
District 3: Obama 52.3%, Dem 39.9%.  Muskegon, Grand Rapids, Holland.
District 4: Obama 54.5%, Dem 47.3%.  Saginaw, the Thumb, north of Flint.
District 5: Obama 57.5%, Dem 48.5%.  Flint, Livingston County, Ypsilanti, north of Lansing.
District 6: Obama 53.1%, Dem 44.0%.  Kalamazoo, Niles/Benton Harbor.
District 7: Obama 53.3%, Dem 41.9%.  Lansing, Grand Rapids burbs.
District 8: Obama 57.0%, Dem 47.3%.  Ann Arbor, Battle Creek, Jackson.
District 9: Obama 51.1%, Dem 41.3%.  Parts of Macomb and Oakland.
District 10: Obama 54.6%, Dem 47.4%.  St. Clair and the rest of Macomb.
District 11: Obama 55.2%, Dem 43.9%.  The bulk of Oakland.
District 12: Obama 54.8%, Dem 45.9%.  Western Wayne, Monroe, part of Lenawee.
District 13: Obama 78.9%, Dem 69.4%.  53.3% black (51.9% BVAP).  Eastern Detroit, the Grosse Pointes, Romulus, Southtowns.
District 14: Obama 80.9%, Dem 71.3%.  51.6% black (51.2% BVAP).  Western Detroit, Dearborn, bit of Oakland.

Nice job. I'd say that districts 5 and 8 have surprisingly high Obama numbers to generate a sub 50% Dem result. Based on the presidential result those would be D+3 or D+4 districts.

When I looked at DRA it says that the partisan numbers are from the 2006 Gov, AG and SoS. That year Granholm (D) won with 56.4%, Cox (R) took AG with 53.8%, and Land (R) took SoS with 56.2%. DRA must use a straight average of those races to have such a net GOP lean that Dems would only get 48% in a D+4 district.

[retromike22]

Can someone help me with this program? I've always wanted to use it, but it always ends up freezing the browser I use. It says that Microsoft Silverlight is unresponsive.

[muon2]

Can someone help me with this program? I've always wanted to use it, but it always ends up freezing the browser I use. It says that Microsoft Silverlight is unresponsive.

I have had problems with every browser except IE. DRA is one of the only things I use IE for. DRA was written by a Microsoft engineer, so it makes sense that using all MS products gives me the best result.

[retromike22]

Can someone help me with this program? I've always wanted to use it, but it always ends up freezing the browser I use. It says that Microsoft Silverlight is unresponsive.

I have had problems with every browser except IE. DRA is one of the only things I use IE for. DRA was written by a Microsoft engineer, so it makes sense that using all MS products gives me the best result.

I tried it, it ended up going a bit further but it was still too sluggish to use. Thanks for your help though.

[Badger]

Train, can I just say you're now on my utterly awesome poster list?

Now here's a challenge: OHIO.

For the superwin: follow the VRA.

MWWAAHAAHAHAHA!!

[traininthedistance]

Train, can I just say you're now on my utterly awesome poster list?

Now here's a challenge: OHIO.

For the superwin: follow the VRA.

MWWAAHAAHAHAHA!!

I've started to do it, in between other projects.  Preliminary results: possible but super incredibly ugly- think a Cincy district, a Dayton district, a Steve LaTourette district, and 13 spaghetti strips going NE-SW.

Follow the VRA as well?  Nope, that's beyond my pay grade (and possibly actually impossible).

...

I will also say that Florida is a physical impossibility, given the constraints of precinct size a) crossing the Everglades, and b) reaching into the Panhandle.  I assume that 25-2 is probably possible, don't know about 26-1.

[muon2]

Here's my IA entry. It wouldn't be right to chop counties for an IA plan, so I kept them all intact. The maximum population deviation is 334. The challenge was to get the votes as equal as possible while minimizing deviations. All four districts are D+1 or D+2.



CD 1 (+125) Obama 54.1%
CD 2 (+307) Obama 54.5%
CD 3 (-334) Obama 53.4%
CD 4 (-99) Obama 53.8%

[Mr. Illini]

Challenges: Kansas, Arizona, Nevada

[muon2]

Challenges: Kansas, Arizona, Nevada

You can't do a sweep where Obama lost. Do have other thoughts for AZ or KS?

[muon2]

Train, can I just say you're now on my utterly awesome poster list?

Now here's a challenge: OHIO.

For the superwin: follow the VRA.

MWWAAHAAHAHAHA!!

I've started to do it, in between other projects.  Preliminary results: possible but super incredibly ugly- think a Cincy district, a Dayton district, a Steve LaTourette district, and 13 spaghetti strips going NE-SW.

Follow the VRA as well?  Nope, that's beyond my pay grade (and possibly actually impossible).

A low end VRA district makes the sweep mathematically possible. An all-Cuyahoga district (no split munis) would be 47.2% BVAP (43.4% WVAP) and should meet the law. That leaves the rest of state voting 49.4% Obama to 48.9% McCain. Getting the rest of the districts in that range may still not be feasible, but ... .

[traininthedistance]

Here we go, Ohio.

Didn't even try to apply the VRA.  Did, however, make every district not just pro-Obama but also pro-Dem Average (trivial in most of the state, but a pain in the SW, which is not just less Obama but also the one part where the Dem average lagged Obama numbers).  And, of course, only Columbus and Cleveland are split, with parts of three districts for both.  Yes, the crazy township fragments in Franklin were paid attention to.









District 1: Obama 52.6%, Dem 50.0% (margin of 161 votes).  25% black.  An actually-pretty compact Cincy district. Entirely within Hamilton!
District 2: Obama 43.3% (beat McCain by 6 votes), Dem 51.0%.  Most of Warren, a chunk of south-central OH, an arm up into Columbus.  As close as it gets anywhere with that 6-vote margin- the Cincy suburbs are brutal.
District 3: Obama 51.7%, Dem 50.1%.  20% black.  The Dayton district, more or less.  Kind of sad that it has to be so ugly; obviously it could retreat somewhat from Butler and take Springfield and look a lot nicer... but it needs to take that much of Butler and leave Springfield to help 2 and 15 get over the line.  C'est la vie.
District 4: Obama 54.3%, Dem 57.9%.  The first Northeast-outward strip.  Not actually within Cleveland- but takes the liberal eastern inner burbs (Cleveland Heights etc.) and strings it out to Mansfield and beyond.
District 5: Obama 55.0%, Dem 59.9%. Our first Cleveland district: the southern parts of the city, Medina, rural deep-Pub counties beyond.  This is our most Democratic district by Obama percentage.
District 6: Obama 49.2% (McCain 48.7%), Dem 62.7%.  Youngstown to Clermont County!  Just a little more elongated than the old CD-6.  This is the highest Dem %, as those numbers have plenty of old downballot strength here.  Functionally 5 is still the best Dem district here nowadays, though.
District 7: Obama 49.5% (McCain 49.2%), Dem 50.0% (135-vote margin).  Our second Columbus-SW district (anchored on that side by the Dayton burbs of Kettering and Beavercreek), another ridiculously close shave.  
District 8: Obama 51.3%, Dem 54.2%.  Butler to Toledo.  Pretty straightforward.
District 9: Obama 50.5%, Dem 53.6%.  From Lima and the Toledo burbs, along Lake Erie, to Lorain. Relatively clean, by this abomination's standards.
District 10: Obama 54.9%, Dem 57.7%.  West Side of Cleveland, bulk of Lorain County, out to Findlay.
District 11: Obama 52.4%, Dem 54.6%.  East Side of Cleveland, then a long thin string of townships all the way to Tipp City north of Dayton.  As ugly and shameless as it gets.
District 12: Obama 49.2% (McCain 48.6%), Dem 53.8%.  Canton, Zanesville, that kinda stuff.  Not as  awful as most.
District 13: Obama 51.3%, Dem 55.2%.  Akron to Newark and parts of Delaware County.  Whee.
District 14: Obama 51.5%, Dem 55.0%.  WHAT THE HELL IS THIS RELATIVELY COMPACT THING DOING HERE?
District 15: Obama 51.5%, Dem 50.0% (margin of 55 votes).  And our last Columbus district, north Franklin to Springfield; most Obama but least Dem in the SW.
District 16: Obama 49.2% (McCain 48.7%), Dem 60.0%.  Warren (the city not the county) to Clermont.  Obviously, District 6's slightly-inland companion.

For the record, Districts 2, 4, 5, 7, and 11 all have black percentages in the mid-teens.

[muon2]

Train, can I just say you're now on my utterly awesome poster list?

Now here's a challenge: OHIO.

For the superwin: follow the VRA.

MWWAAHAAHAHAHA!!

I've started to do it, in between other projects.  Preliminary results: possible but super incredibly ugly- think a Cincy district, a Dayton district, a Steve LaTourette district, and 13 spaghetti strips going NE-SW.

Follow the VRA as well?  Nope, that's beyond my pay grade (and possibly actually impossible).

A low end VRA district makes the sweep mathematically possible. An all-Cuyahoga district (no split munis) would be 47.2% BVAP (43.4% WVAP) and should meet the law. That leaves the rest of state voting 49.4% Obama to 48.9% McCain. Getting the rest of the districts in that range may still not be feasible, but ... .

... your challenge is answered.

All districts are within 500 of the quota, and only 2 are more than 302 from the quota. No munis are split within a county except for Columbus (and I believe I split no Columbus wards). The Cuyahoga district is as described above. All other districts carried for Obama in 2008 with a plurality of the vote. The margin ranges from 438 to 2824 votes, but a win is a win.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I remember doing this for Minnesota once so I'll probably do it again. It's quite easy really, MN-01 can remain intact, MN-07 and MN-08 swap precincts to get MN-07 an Obama win and in the metro you have to do some weird carving and split Minneapolis to get some exurbs in with urban seats and then turn the old Bachmann seat into a weird sort of St. Cloud to inner suburbs strip. Barely for Obama, but won nonetheless.

[muon2]

I remember doing this for Minnesota once so I'll probably do it again. It's quite easy really, MN-01 can remain intact, MN-07 and MN-08 swap precincts to get MN-07 an Obama win and in the metro you have to do some weird carving and split Minneapolis to get some exurbs in with urban seats and then turn the old Bachmann seat into a weird sort of St. Cloud to inner suburbs strip. Barely for Obama, but won nonetheless.

Can you do it without chopping Mpls or StPaul?