Zambia presidential by-election - January 20, 2015

[politicus]

A new "dunno what they base this on" poll from the Independent Analysis Group shows Edith Nakawi suddenly in the running after fellow easterner Rupiah Banda being barred from running. She got 0.2% last time, so it sounds crazy.. Still:

Edgar Lungu  (PF) 38%

Edith Nawakwi (FDD) 26%

HH (UPND) 25%

Nevers Mumba (MMD) 10%.

Others 1%

[politicus]

Davis Chama- the SG elected at the Lungu GC - says that there has been a reconciliation between the two wings after mediation by a bishop. Chama says Scott will lead the delegation of the 200 signatories that nominate Lungu!

I suppose that  given they were couped by the courts and Kabimba do not have time to build up enough of an organization the Scott wing didn't have much choice.

Note: The clergy in Zambia is remarkably active in PF politics, and it seems the Catholic church really wants PF to stay in power. It was leaked they would carry out mediation in a lodge, but the meeting Chama refers to was in State House chaired by a protestant Bishop.

EDIT: As part of the "reconciliation" all the cases before the courts have been withdrawn, according to Lungi - I have not seen Sampa confirm this.

[politicus]

The MMD National Executive Committee has decided to back HH! So now Nevers Mumba is a (court enforced) candidate without a party behind him - de facto just an independent. It was a very clear 47-8 decision.

[Famous Mortimer]

Sata was a very devout Catholic and Lungu's running mate is a priest.

[politicus]

Sata was a very devout Catholic and Lungu's running mate is a priest.

Sata may have been "devout" but he was also in the "produce 20 illegitimate children" category. This is a power play and an attempt to protect certain economic interests.

As for running mates they don't have those in Zambia which is the reason for the mess they are in at the moment. The President picks his VP at his own digression and Lungu has promised  the job to several people, the most likely candidate by far being Chiefs and Traditional Affairs Minister Professor Nkandu Luo in return for the crucial  favour his relative in the judiciary did Lungu by creating the original "consent" judgment scam that blocked Sampas legal options.

EDIT: If you are talking about Frank Bwalya the deal to make him VP was just in case that Lungu needed to run on an Alliance for a Better Zambia ticket.

[Famous Mortimer]

I should say he very publicly Catholic then. Basically every profile written about him always mentioned that in the first paragraph.

[politicus]

Zambia Watchdog claims Scott was forced into submission after being threatened by senior Army officers. They also claim that former intelligence chief Xavier Chungu, who is working with the Lungu campaign, was behind the plan and has hired some guys to take out HH - and of course the old Mugabe advice stuff (which is a bit funny, because they hardly need Mugabe to tell them that you can get your way by force and threats).
Dunno how much of it is believable, but the total and unconditional surrender by the Scott wing makes some kind of pressure seem likely..
The Cartels mouthpiece The Post also has the story.

http://www.zambianwatchdog.com/military-commanders-intimidate-scott-to-back-lungu/

http://zambiareports.com/2014/12/21/zambian-army-forces-guy-scott-back-edgar-lungu/

[politicus]

Zambia Railways Director of Finance Elijah Nyirenda has died under mysterious circumstances  a day after objecting to a PF manoeuvre to syphon money from the railways to fund Lungu's campaign.

Zambia Railways is controlled by PF cadres with Lungu appointed SG PF Davis Chama as chairman of the board and Muyenga Atanga, husband to dismissed Scott wing SG Bridget Atanga as managing director.

[politicus]

I should say he very publicly Catholic then. Basically every profile written about him always mentioned that in the first paragraph.

PF has lots of Catholics, mostly because it has lots of Bembas.

Both sides use religion against each other. Lungu is a Catholic, but his opponents claim he is a Muslim convert ("Edgar Muhammed Lungu"), trained in Yemen and financially supported by Somali fundamentalists, while Hichilema is a Seventh Day Adventist and a Free Mason, which many on the other side claim is a non-Christian cult trying to impose a New World Order.

EDIT: At todays rally in Kabwe excommunicated Ortodox Bishop Edward Chomba kicked it up a notch when he said Hichilema was a Satanist and would devour their children! (quoted by several media, so I assume its true. This election is getting crazier all the time.

[politicus]

The Electoral Commission has published their nomination schedule for all registered parties, that say they plan to field a candidate. A lot of them are empty shells owned by someone, so there should be ample opportunity for Sampa or Nevers Mumba to find a sponsor if they want to. I don't understand why exactly the parties needs to declare on different dates, since they don't seem to need signatures that have to be controlled. General Myyindas Heritage Party is not on the list, which is surprising as he has already declared his candidacy (as usual). The ones marked with # have already declared a candidate (well, PF has declared two..).

The Electoral Commission of Zambias schedule for Presidential nominations:

Wednesday, December, 17th 2014
The Forum for Democratic Alternative.
Green Party #
The Redemption Party.

Thursday, December 18th, 2014
The Forum for Democracy and Development (FDD) #
National Restoration Party (NAREP) #
The United Poor Peoples of Zambia Freedom Party

Friday December 19,2014.
The United Independence Party (UNIP) #
The Fourth Revolution Party
The United Party for National Development (UPND) #

Saturday, December 20th, 2014
The Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) #
The Patriotic Front (PF) #
The Christian Democratic Party #

Sunday, December 21st, 2014
The National Revolution Party
The Democratic Front party

Monday, December 22nd, 2014
Common Cause Democracy,
Nationalist Party
National Party

Tuesday, December 23rd, 2014
Zambia Direct Democracy Movement

Cosmo Mumba from the tiny National Revolution Party failed to file his nomination. Of the 13 parties that has so far been before the ECZ 9 have had their candidate approved: PF, MMD, UPND, FDD, UNIP, Green Party, FDA, NAREP and the Christian Democratic Party, while  Fourth Revolution Party, National Revolution Party, the Redemption Party and The United Poor Peoples of Zambia Freedom Party all failed, so bad news for the revolutionary redemption of poor people..

The five parties left are all tiny, so the field is beginning to shape up.

Main candidates:
PF: Edgar Lungu
UPND: Hakainde Hichilema

Outsider:
FDD: Edith Nawakwi

Some support:
MMD: Nevers Mumba

Marginal candidates:
UNIP: Tilyenji Kaunda
Greens: Peter Sinkamba
NAREP: Elias Chipimo
FDA: Ludwig Sondashione
Christian Democrats: Daniel Pule

[politicus]

Miles Sampa says that the reconciliation was a fake media stunt, that the party structure is still divided and that his supporters are being discriminated against. He is considering forming his own party to contest the 2016 elections and will announce his decision in a couple of days.

[politicus]

Peter Sinkamba claims his proposal to legalize commercial marijuana production in 129 farm zones will provide an additional US$15 billion income, which will be "a quantum leap" for the country (their current GDP is US$20 billion). He also claims it will.create about 200, 000 jobs within a year.The Greens cite the Israeli success of growing medical marijuana as their model.

[politicus]

Common Cause Democracy President Abel Mtonga and National Party President Rvd. Richard Kambulu have withdrawn from the Presidential election race. Mtonga endorsed HH.

[politicus]

The ECZ has announced the final field. In addition to the nine mentioned above it is Erick Chanda (Fourth Revolution Party), who manged to get registered despite being turned down at first and Godfrey Miyanda from the Heritage Party, who was not on the registration schedule, but must have been allowed to try anyway.

Final field:

Main candidates:
PF: Edgar Lungu
UPND: Hakainde Hichilema

Outsider:
FDD: Edith Nawakwi

Some support:
MMD: Nevers Mumba

Marginal candidates:
UNIP: Tilyenji Kaunda
Greens: Peter Sinkamba
NAREP: Elias Chipimo
FDA: Ludwig Sondashione
Christian Democrats: Daniel Pule
Fourth Revolution Party: Erick Chanda
Heritage Party: Godfrey Miyanda

[politicus]

UPND has given the defence chiefs an ultimatum. They have until the end of tomorrow to explain what happened at their meeting with Scott in State House the day before the Lungu/Scott reconciliation or the party will take "precautions". Also say they are preparing anti-rigging measures and will set up a commission of inquiry into the conduct of the armed forces after they win. There has been harasment of NGOs deemed UPND friendly and workers loyal to UNPD have been fired from parastatals controlled by PF.
It should be noted that many junior officers are apparently pro-UNPD, so taking on the defence chiefs is not as suicidal as it sounds.

[politicus]

21 members of the MMD NEC have decided to back Lungu (3 support Hichilema), who has also given Rupiah Banda an attractive offer (restoring his pension, dropping corruption charges against him and his exiled son Henry, givng him back some vehicles he aquired illegally while in office and making him Minister of Agriculture). Banda has issued a "hot air" let's focus on what is best for the contry statement, which some interpret as a sign he will eventually endorse Lungu.

Anyway, Nevers Mumba is left without any party support and seems mainly to be campaigning on tribalist "Vote for me, because I am the only Bemba" rhetoric.

One of the more interesting aspects of this campaign is if MMD survives it. The party seems in total disarray.

[politicus]

Among the 150 directly elected MPs 107 now support Lungu (incl. 26 MMD) and 27 support Hichilema (all from UPND).

[politicus]

GBM endorses HH! His motivation is primarily tribal. "Up to now the PF Government has not recognized the rightful heir to the throne Henry Kanyanta Sosala, though there have been promises by the PF president Hon Edgar Lungu that he will be recognized", while Hakainde Hichilema has promised to do so. He also states Lungus disrespect for Scott and his contribution to the party as a reason.

So lets see if that can move some Bemba votes to a Tonga man.

Meanwhile "Frank Bwalya is mocking UNPD for not following up on their "ultimatum" to the defence chiefs.

The printing of ballot paper is being done by a South African company and there are all sorts of rumours as to why it is being done down there. Ubercorrupt Road Services Agency boss and former street thug Willie Nsanda has suddenly become ill (or "ill") and is hospitalized in SA and some see a connection. The PF controlled Drug Enforcement Agency has representatives in the delegation overseeing the process and is rumoured to have been ordered to conduct the rigging.

[politicus]

The Miles Sampa loyal PF executive in Western Province has endorsed HH.

Former PF Chairperson of Elections and Minister of Tourism Sylvia Masebo has joined UPND. She was the lady that almost got lynched when she wouldn't accept a vote for party President on the Lungu hijacked GC without checking if the people present where actual members. So no future for her in PF. She came from MMD in 2011.

[politicus]

According to one of Zambia's most recognized electoral experts there are only two provinces still in play at this point: Eastern Province and Lusaka and whoever wins them gets to be President. Lusaka is the most extensively  polled province and despite the poor standard of Zambian polls he thinks it is safe to assume HH is solidly ahead here at this point.



Lungu has the three northernmost Bemba dominated provinces, whereas HH has the Tonga homeland in Southern + the ethnically close areas of NW and most parts of Central. Western Province went to PF in 2011 because Sata promised to reinstate autonomy to Barotseland, after he defaulted on that it is now solidly in the opposition column and the Copperbelt is lost for PF, but they might still be able to keep HH's margins down there.

The most densely populated province by far is the multiethnic mining zone Copperbelt, then comes Lusaka and Eastern followed by Luapula and Southern. The rest of Zambia is thinly populated. So if PF does not get Lusaka and Eastern (Lungu's home province) by solid margins they are done.

PF also has additional problems. Farmers are generally mad at lack of payments (or huge delays) for their produce and attracted to UPND (based in Zambias main agricultural zone) and Nevers Mumba and Nawakwi are both from the North and can siphon off votes in their core areas.

The sheer fact that Lungu is not stong enough to secure his home province is very unusual in Africa. They have tried to get fellow Easterner Rupiah Banda to endorse him in order to lock it down, but so far without luck.

[politicus]

Miles Sampa has given up starting his own party (after failing to get support from the Bemba royalty) and has endorsed Lungu.

[politicus]

Rupiah Banda has endorsed Lungu. Whether or not that is enough to sway Eastern Province where the farmers are mad at PFs agricultural policy and a powerful chief has endorsed Nawakwi remains to be seen, but it clearly improves their chances.

[politicus]

An outsider with a troubled past:

Edith Nawakwi (56) was one of the founders of MMD in 1990, she is an economist and the daughter of the chief of Nawaitwika village in Northern Province. Her claim to fame was her total disrespect for the President/dictator Kenneth Kaunda in the transition to democracy in 1990/91, whom she ridiculed and mocked without fear giving her an image as an intelligent and fearless amazon.

In the first democratic elections in 1991 Nawakwi became an MP and was appointed Deputy Minister of Energy.

Nawakwi continued to provoke and she (crucially) alienated Zambian women (60% of the electorate – men don't last that long in Zambia). She scorned feminists and broke the norms for what a respectable African woman can do by dressing in miniskirts, flirting with male MPs and snatching a married man.

Nawakwi rose swiftly, she became Minister of Energy and moved on to Minister of Agriculture, where she was later implicated in the Carlington Maize scandal in which Zambia lost more than $4 mio. for maize that was never delivered. When Ronald Penza was fired for corruption (and later assassinated) Nawakwi succeeded him as Minister of Finance, the first Zambian woman to rise so high. When Chiluba sold off national assets Nawakwi  transferred $52 mio. dollars to the Zamtrop account at the Zambia National Commercial Bank in London - money has that has never been recovered. After pressure from international donors and IMF she was demoted to Minister of Labour and Social Security.

In 2001 Nawakwi refused to support Chiluba’s bid for a third term bid. She and 19 other top MMD officials were fired and formed the Forum for Democracy and Development (FDD), where she became Vice President and in 2005 their leader.

In 2011 she tried to become the first female president of Zambia, but got less than 7.000 votes. Nevertheless in the present crisis it seems her Iron Lady image and obvious intelligence may have given her some traction despite her cocky personality and all the scandals. Still, anything above 10-12% would be a sensation.

[politicus]

Nevers Mumba says that Rupiah Banda has lost all dignity and respect he once had following his endorsement of Edgar Lungu and adds that the group around him looks like "an Eastern Province cartel". Hardly surprising, but it adds to the question of what is going to happen to MMD after the election. Unlike PF it actually has party structures and a membership, but with leaders and MPs going in three different directions it looks impossible to keep it together.

[politicus]

As the only candidate Lungu has refused to sign a contract to commit himself to "giving the Zambian people a people driven constitution."
It is "The Grand Coalition for a people driven Constitution" (comprising churches, trade unions, students unions, opposition groups and the Law Association of Zambia) that is behind the contract. They have decided to launch a campaign dubbed ‘No constitution, No vote’ against all candidates who have refused to sign the contract - which will consequently be an anti-Lungu campaign.

EDIT:

Not accurate. The situation is:

Edith Nawakwi of the FDD, Hakainde Hichilema from the UPND, Elias Chipimo from NAREP, Nevers Mumba of the MMD and Tilyenji Kaunda from UNIP have signed the contract.

Edgar Lungu of PF and Peter Sinkamba of the Green Party have categorically refused to sign the pledges.

Danny Pule of CDP, Ludgwig Sondashi of FDA, Erick Chanda of the Forth Revolution Party and Godfrey Miyanda of the Heritage Party are still being engaged to sign.