Zambia presidential by-election - January 20, 2015

[politicus]

PF cadres led by the husband of the local DC attacked the entourage of Hakainde Hichilema and his ally ADD president Charles Milupi at the helipad in Mongu in Western Province and killed a UPND representative. The attack might have been instigated by the local Police Commissioner. First casualty in the campaign - hopefully the situation does not get out of hand.

[politicus]

The Lusaka High Court has dismissed UPNDs injunction against ZNBCs election coverage, so the national broadcaster will get away with their 90%+ PF focused coverage.

[politicus]

HHs special advisor Douglas Syakalima says UPND will be forced to retaliate if the attacks against their members continue and that they are under pressure from their membership to retaliate. He also states that many PF cadres are now carrying guns.

[politicus]

The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) has confirmed that some PF appointed District Commissioners are imposing lists of names for recruitment as polling staff. Makes the rigging rumours more likely, but it seems ECZ stands firmly against this.

[politicus]

ECZ now threatens to cut the official campaign period short if the (PF instigated) violence does not stop. They will also convene a meeting of all the participating political parties, churches and other stakeholders to "chart a way forward on the ugly scourge of violence".

[politicus]

Everyone except Edgar Lungu have confirmed their participation in the final TV debate on the privately owned Muvi Television. Lungu ruined an earlier debate on economic policy among the top 4 by a no-show, but it would be risky for him to skip this one. Since Muvi TV plan to air it with the other 10 if he doesn't show up. The debate will be live from Mulungushi International Conference Centre and take place over two days with five marginal candidates (Erick Chanda, Tilyenji Kaunda, Danny Pule, Ludwig Sondashoni and Godfrey Miyanda) debating each other in a "who is going to see that?" debate on January 14, while Nevers Mumba, Edith Nawakwi, Elias Chipimo, Hakainde Hichilema, Peter Sinkamba - and possibly Edgar Lungu - will debate each other the next evening.

[politicus]

Lungu did not show up for the Muvi TV debate, while Hichilema came and delivered a good performance. Only 20% of Zambians can watch Muvi TV, but it still seems foolish not to attend unless Lungu really is a horrible debater.

Documents from the Law Association of Zambia showing that Lungu was found guilty of professional misconduct after embezzling money from a client have surfaced. It is an old and well known story, but documentation may make a difference, even if this is not as obvious in Africa as it would be in the West, since people are often quite cynical about these things.

[politicus]

Lungu intends to stay on as Minister of Defence and Justice during the election, even if this is against established constitutional practice.

Soldiers and policemen who have transferred since 2011 or are deployed in other parts of the country will not be allowed to travel home to vote (officially for security reasons - more likely fear of massive swing towards the opposition in the lower ranks of the security forces). Given that they use the 2011 register and there are no postal ballots this means they will be disenfranchised.  There is fear of "ghosts" voting for the disenfranchised soldiers and policemen.

[politicus]

In a last effort to stop PFs vote bleeding in the Bemba heartland in Northern and parts of Muchinga Province Guy Scott has today recognized the legal heir Henry Kanyanta Sosala as Paramount Chief of the Bembas (Chitimukulu). The desertion of GBM has mobilized a lot of support for HH in areas otherwise expected to vote massively for Lungu.

PF has refused to recognize the heir and instead tried to put a puppet on the throne. When Kanyanta Sosala was announced as the new Chitimukulu then Home Secretary Edgar Lungu  sent police to evict him from the palace. For more than half a year the Chitmukulu stayed in a tent while heavily armed police cordoned off his palace. But when Sata died PF realised that they needed the support of the Chitmukulu to retain votes in the north. Lungu went to kneel before Kanyanta and promise to recognise him once he was elected, but has so far declined to do it before becoming President. Now PF have done it.

Still, may be too little too late.

EDIT: Scott did not recognize Sosala after all! He just said he would ensure that a Statutory Instrument was signed to recognise him once a new president is elected (which is what Lungu has said all along). Claiming he had "limited powers", but Scott has signed Statutory Instruments before, so PF must have gotten cold feet.

[politicus]

UPND meeting in Northern Province



Henry Sosala



GBM with Hichilema

[politicus]

Zambia Watchdog claims PF has set up a "rigging machinery" at Samora Machel ZAF base in Mbala under direct supervision of ZAF Commander Eric Chimese, the most PF loyal of the defence chiefs (and under suspicion of  killing his UPND friendly deputy, who died in a strange plane crash after possibly being drugged).

They also say the latest intelligence briefing to Guy Scott estimates that Hichilema will win by 67% against Lungu's 18% if the election was held today. No way of knowing if that is correct, but PFs "internals" done by the intelligence division attached to the President's office are likely the best polls there are, so PF knows where they stand.

ZW says that the rigging will be done by officers from the Drug Enforcement Commission (also in SA during the printing of the ballot papers) since Lungu does not trust most officers in the intelligence. If Lungu wins most intelligence officers and senior police officers will be fired. Lungu is now working with intelligence officers (mainly Easterners) from Rupiah Banda's time, who were transferred to other government agencies when Sata became president. Again, no way of knowing if true, but the switch from Bembas to Easterners after Banda joined Lungu is likely a reality.

Lots of rumours and no way of verifying them. ZW is owned by businessmen supporting the opposition, but often correct.

The election results will be transmitted electronically from the 150 constituencies and ZW says they will first go to former intelligence chief Xavier Chungu’s facility at Samora Machel ZAF base in Mbala where they will be "doctored" before being forwarded to Lusaka. It is not clear if the ECZ is officially part of the rigging or just some officials in the electoral body. Kenyan IT experts should have been hired to care of it.

Also persistent rumours that PF is giving voters cards and national registration cards to former Angolan refugees at Mutomena in Western Province, where the Army has a camp.

Alternative option PF considers according to the anonymous intelligence sources ZW cites: Announcement of results in areas where Lungu will be leading and then the PF causing violence that will be blamed on the opposition to an extent so ECZ will have to stop announcing results. Lungu has publicly quoted a Bemba proverb about provoking an unruly child in order to hit it (in order to break its will) - so more or less an open threat of using force.

Lots of rumours and no way of verifying them. ZW is owned by businessmen supporting the opposition, but often correct. It seems certain PF is under pressure in all areas of the country.

http://www.zambianwatchdog.com/rigging-machinery-at-zaf-mbala-base-ready/

In other news: Around 50.00 voters - primarily rural women - have been disenfranchised because they have moved and haven't had the resources to travel to their 2011 districts to swap their voter registration cards to news one. During the rainy season travelling by road in rural Zambia is often impossible and otherwise expensive and a major hassle.

[politicus]

The leaks of damaging info about the candidates in the final days continue and it seems various Zambian civil servants are busy selling confidential info. Documents from Patents and Companies Registration Agency (PACRA) as well as Zambia Privatisation Agency (ZPA) about how HH got rich in the privatisation process in the 90s has now surfaced.

As responsible for privatising state companies and assets Hichilema illegally benefited from his position by acquiring shares in South African Sun International Ltd. months before the company was awarded the right to buy two hotels/lodges.

He has also failed to declare interest in a number of companies he co-owns with key officials involved in the 90s privatisation process.

During the sale of Intercontinental Hotel Livingstone and Rainbow Lodge + parkland he selected the lowest bid by South African Sun International Ltd. in exchange for acquiring a massive amount of shares in the company through a proxy. Rejecting bids up to four times higher.

Indo-Zambian businessman Dipak Patel - now HH’s campaign manager - was Deputy Minister of Commerce, Trade, and Industry back then and was very closely involved with the privatisation of the two lodges and was his main accomplice.

Hichilema also has financial connections to the head of the privatisation program Valentine Chitulu – and he failed to disclose this information when he registered his nomination papers as a presidential candidate. They co-own an issurance company with comlimentary pension fund.

There are also some stuff about his ties to Anglo-American. Most importantly the insurance company owned by HH and Chitulu owns the  Anglo American Building in Lusaka, so his ties to the South African mining giant goes back in time.

Hichilema flew to SA together with Nevers Mumba and held a now famous meeting with the Oppenheimer family at their Brenthurst estate (the Brenthurst Conspiracy) where they allegedly plotted how to remove PF - also in case of armed resistance during or after the election. He is expected to reduce mining royalties for foreign companies. He has stated that if he is elected he will reverse the PF introduced mining tax

Hichilema has never explicitly denied that he has directly benefited from ownership in companies that won privatisation tenders. All he has said is that he’s never been charged with an offence. Dunno how much this will affect voters. That he made his fortune selling public assets has been rumourd for a long time - it may hurt his image as the "great economic manager", or it may not. Zambia does not have Nigeria levels of corruption, but voters are still used to slfenriching leaders.

[politicus]

Lungu continues his habit of none appearance for radio and television interviews and debates.
He skipped last night's Muvi TV interview programme with the two frontrunners where he was expected to feature but instead sent Emmanuel Mwamba as a proxy.

He also cancelled the pre-recorded ZNBC television interview programme that was supposed to be aired last night.

Lungu has never appeared in an interview or debate in the electronic media and never given a longer interview to the written media after starting his campaign. Which is pretty unusual and raises questions about his abilities (or answers them in the negative..).

The campaign period ends today at 6PM. Polls open tomorrow at 6AM local time (GMT +2).

After all the chaos, rigging rumours, leaks of past scandals and without any reliable polling this is really hard to predict.
Zambian observers focus on Hichilemas failure to effectively address the rumours that he is a freemason (which is seen as some form of satanic cult in Zambia) and the Tonga dominance of his party as his most important problems. On the other hand PF has experienced mass defections and is unpopular in key segments, such as farmers and Bemba traditionalists. I would expect Hichilema to win in a fair election, but that is probably not what we are going to get. Any attempt at rigging will lead to violence, the question is how much.

HH addressing the final UPND rally:

[Afrolyte]

The winner of the Zambian election will be Edgar Lungu. It won't even be close. Second will be Hakainde Hichilema followed by Nevers Mumba and then Nawakwi and Chipimo.

Hichilema's gains in this election have been exaggerated. He will lose the bemba region badly; the defected MPs from MMD will have very little impact on electorate. And Eastern province is going completely in to Edgar Lungu's camp. Lusaka will also be Lungu.

Lungu's victory will be emphatic, but there will follow some allegations of rigging which will not really catch wings due to the margin between him and Hichilema.

- Afrolyte.

[politicus]

The winner of the Zambian election will be Edgar Lungu. It won't even be close. Second will be Hakainde Hichilema followed by Nevers Mumba and then Nawakwi and Chipimo.

Hichilema's gains in this election have been exaggerated. He will lose the Bemba region badly; the defected MPs from MMD will have very little impact on electorate. And Eastern province is going completely in to Edgar Lungu's camp. Lusaka will also be Lungu.

Lungu's victory will be emphatic, but there will follow some allegations of rigging which will not really catch wings due to the margin between him and Hichilema.

Hi

Welcome to the forum!

Are you Zambian? What do you base the above prognosis on?

It is possible to choose a nationality under your profile - if you do there will be a flag shown under your username.

[politicus]

Good background article about UPND and the election from African Arguments:

http://africanarguments.org/2015/01/16/zambia-rise-of-the-upnd-down-to-good-preparation-and-luck-by-nicole-beardsworth/

A few central facts about the election:

Turnout

"The outcome of the election may well be contingent on something that neither party can control – the weather on voting day; heavy rain in certain parts of the country may be enough to deter voters and swing the results in either party’s favour. The role of voter apathy is also likely to be significant; with so many elections held within the space of a few years, Zambians may see few benefits in going to the polls yet again – particularly ahead of the next elections which are to be held in little more than 18 months."

Make or break for Hichilema

"For HH, this is an election that he needs to win. It is his fourth stab at the presidency and an electoral loss may be enough to prompt an insurrection within his party. Differences between acting president Guy Scott and PF candidate Edgar Lungu have helped to level the playing field in favour of the UPND, an opening that may not be available in 18 months’ time. The failure of the country’s two largest parties to galvanise their own positions ahead of 2015 was fortuitous, but they are likely to regroup and make a stronger stand in 2016. Hichilema’s campaign has however shown that the UPND is likely to be a force to be reckoned with for the foreseeable future."

[politicus]

Zambian academic Dr. Munyonzwe Hamalengwa has published a list of 20 trivias about the election (the answer to all question is of course Zambia). I have eliminated a few uninteresting or dubious ones - and am not 100% sure of all of them, but here we go:

1. Which country in history fielded the most relatives contending for the presidency from within the same party?

2. Which country in history had the most aspiring presidential contenders to replace a dead president from within the same political party?

3. Which country in modern history produced a presidential contender from a political party by the show of hands and not through a secret ballot process?

5. Which country in recent history has produced the most violent intra-party presidential selection process?

6. Which country has had the majority of its dead presidents die abroad while they were still in office as well as out of office?

8. Which country in had an Acting President, an Acting Chief Justice and an Acting Deputy Chief Justice all at the same time?

9. Which country had a presidential candidate from its governing party failing to attend every presidential debate and expecting to win?

10. Which country produced a presidential candidate from the governing party who stated clearly that he had no vision and but expected to win the election?

11. Which country had a presidential candidate from the governing party who abandoned the presidential campaign trail to go abroad to beg for campaign funds and returned with a sackful of dollars and helicopters and the country tolerated it?

12. Which country produced a former President who when he lost the bid to run for president again from his party, joined the opposing party that he had intended to run against despite all the nasty things he had stated about that opposing party?

13. Which country in Africa has produced more political leaders forming parties or joining other parties and then abandoning those parties to rejoin former parties and or rejoining those parties they had abandoned and vice versa or crossing over to a totally new party?

14. Which country had a president who had no foreign head of state officially visiting and holding diplomatic discussions during the tenure of that president?

16. Which country allowed a presidential contender to run while the contender was facing criminal charges and undergoing a criminal trial?

17. Which country in Africa had a governing party win an election by promising to produce fundamental changes in its politics and economics within 90 days?

19. Which country in Africa has succeeded in having a white president after the collapse of European colonialism?

You could add another oddity: Each successive Zambian president has served a shorter time in office than his predecessor.

Kenneth Kaunda 27 years and nine days, Frederick Chiluba 10 years, 61 days, Levy Mwanawasa 6 years, 230 days, Rupiah Banda 3 years, 86 days) and Michael Sata 3 years, 35 days. So going by this whoever wins will either lose in 2016 or die shortly afterwards

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I've heard that Zambia doesn't have nearly the amount of ethnic tension present in other countries in the region?

[politicus]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I've heard that Zambia doesn't have nearly the amount of ethnic tension present in other countries in the region?

No it is about the same. Southern Africa generally doesn't have extreme amounts of ethnic tension. Regional differences is often more important than tribe itself (although they of course overlap with ethnicity). About half of Zambians are Bembas or associated tribes and they have dominated politics since independence. The Bantu Botatwe in the south with the Tongas as the main group have a rivalry with them. Then there is the Lozis in Western Province who had their autonomous Barotseland before and immediately after independence. The special thing about Zambia is the multiethnic mining area the Copperbelt which a successful politician normally needs to win.
There is a strong animosity to "tribalism" in Zambia, but that is also the case in most other African countries due to the multiethnic character of their societies.

In Zambian self image they are more peaceful, tolerant and post-colonial (non-racial) than their neighbours, but ethnicity is still a central factor in politics. This time Bemba dominated PF and Tonga dominated UPND are facing off, so there is a larger tribal factor. The previously dominant MMD was more evenly represented across the country.

[politicus]

Christine Kaseba and Mulenga Sata did not endorse Lungu at the final rally yesterday as Lungu's team had hoped. Neither has Commerce Minister Bob Sichinga. Sata's family is mad at Lungu for cooperating with Sata's rival Rupiah Banda and letting his people "take over" PF.

Voting has begun half an hour ago and will finish at 6 PM local time (GMT+2).

[politicus]

Voter distribution by province:



2011 result:



Muchinga has since then been carved out of Northern Province (+ one district from Eastern). The four southern provinces (Southern, Northwestern, Central and Western) are expected to back HH. Northern, Muchinga and Luapula with 21%+ (23% probably) should go to Lungu, but some Bemba traditionalists may vote HH over the succession issue. Lusaka and Copperbelt with 31% combined are the swing areas. Eastern (around 14% now) was expected to be a swing area this time before Banda's endorsement, but should now be safe Lungu.

[politicus]

The election process has been peaceful, but there has been low turnout because of heavy rains. Turnout probably below 50%. By midday voting had not commenced in 72 polling stations (other source says 164..) due to the wheather, but 34 have received their materials in the afternoon - all voters will be giving 12 hours to vote, so this will delay the final result. The delayed polling stations are primarily located in opposition strongholds in Northwestern and Western Province.

ZAF decided this morning that UPND wasn't allowed to use their helicopters on election day, despite permits already given. So no possibility for the opposition of flying observers to remote areas with no passable roads, which could indicate fraud and is an outright stupidity otherwise.

ECZ has said they will fax in the results backed by hard copies coming back with returning officers. This is partly due to the weather sabotaging the digital transmission system in parts of the country and partly to counter UPND rigging allegations.  

The first results should be ready by 11 PM and according to ECZ the final result should be known somewhere around noon tomorrow (though this will probably be delayed due to the late opening of some polling stations).





Guy Scott getting his finger inked after voting

[Lincolnshire Poacher]

Hi

I'm a political economist that did some research in Zambia a couple of years ago.  Interesting posts here, but a couple of questions, if anyone can help me out, since I haven't kept up with Zambian politics as closely as I would like recently...

- I am aware that UPND and especially HH are running on an essentially free market ticket (which is hardly surprising given his role in the privatisation process).  However, what about the PF?  I know that under Sata there was not really much evidence of any consistent ideology.  However, to a large extent the past three PF campaigns were based on appeals to populist nationalism, including economic nationalism.  Given that one of things Scott has done with his interim presidency is to revive the copper windfall tax, I wondered if the PF split might at least partially be about these kinds of issues- is the Lungu wing more economically liberal?  I think this is important because, though none of the parties may exactly have a coherent economic plan, one of the things which seems to distinguish Zambia from most other African states is that elections have recently been at least partly about substantive policy choices rather than simply a question of choosing the most 'moral' candidate, with their proposed policies being secondary (and not even mentioned in most media coverage).

- Is it really the case that the Copperbelt will vote differently to the two Northern Bemba provinces this time?  If so this marks quite a significant break with past Zambian politics.  It is also surprising because the PF's campaign last time was especially focused on the Copperbelt and the idea that ordinary Zambians there were seeing few benefits from the commodity boom.   I have to say that for this reason I don't really buy the idea that Zambian politics revolves around ethnicity completely, since it has always seemed to me that the multi-ethnic Copperbelt carries the two Bemba provinces' votes much more than the other way around.  What I mean is that there are essentially two kinds of politics in Zambia.  Victories by non-incumbent parties (MMD and PF) have always been built upon a core of votes around mining unions and the broader urban population, with influence from these groups being heavily felt in Northern and Luapula, mainly because of the strong ties and large amount of circulation of people between these two and the Copperbelt (retired miners in rural villages, for example).  Putting this coalition of three provinces together has been the key to winning Zambian elections since 1991, enough to defeat the ethnic/clientistic politics which is stronger elsewhere.  It's very interesting if this dynamic has changed.

- Lastly, though its pretty common to see senior figures moving between parties, I do not remember this happening to anything like this extent while elections have been going on, with some big names endorsing rival party candidates.  Is there any good explanation for this? 

Thanks in advance if anyone can shed any light on this.

[politicus]

- I am aware that UPND and especially HH are running on an essentially free market ticket (which is hardly surprising given his role in the privatisation process). However, what about the PF? I know that under Sata there was not really much evidence of any consistent ideology.  However, to a large extent the past three PF campaigns were based on appeals to populist nationalism, including economic nationalism.  Given that one of things Scott has done with his interim presidency is to revive the copper windfall tax, I wondered if the PF split might at least partially be about these kinds of issues- is the Lungu wing more economically liberal?  I think this is important because, though none of the parties may exactly have a coherent economic plan, one of the things which seems to distinguish Zambia from most other African states is that elections have recently been at least partly about substantive policy choices rather than simply a question of choosing the most 'moral' candidate, with their proposed policies being secondary (and not even mentioned in most media coverage).

Lungu has himself admitted to having no platform of his own and is running on "Sata's legacy". He has basically taken all the costly promises made by HH about keeping food prices down, keeping the pension age for public employees at 55 and securing farmers the payment the government owe them etc. and made them his own. Given that Lungu has avoided all debates, interview programmes and newspapper interviews it is not possible to say what his macro economic policy is, but Banda's economic team has according to some media taken over on this.

One of the big questions in this is "who is Edgar Lungu?". He is basically a blank canvas politically. He seems to have been chosen because he is an affable man that was not part of the cartel around Mahtani and Fred Mmembe (as Scott) and disliked by few outside this clique. I suppose you can to some degree compare it to Hugo Chavez and Maduro in Venezuela. You got the charismatic populist leader with some authoritarian tendencies and his much weaker and anonynous, but potentially more authoritarian successor. As an Easterner he also broke the Bemba dominance in the party, which was important to some.

HH and UPND have a very sensible platform with a free market approach and public-private partnership supplemented with land reform, limiting restrictions for street vendors and free education. So a social liberal platform with an "enable people to take care of themselves" focus. But at their rallies he has promised subsidizing basic foods and a low pension age which fits badly with lower mining taxes and no borrowing abroad. Add free education and continued infrastructure developments and their economic policy doesn't add up.

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There are three Bemba (in the broad sense) provinces now after Muchinga was created. With no independent polling it is impossible to say who wins the Copperbelt. Both sides have had an interest in saying they have it in the bag. The whole succession issue and GBMs desertion and Lungu not being Bemba (and Nevers Mumba being one) also makes it an open question if PF win the three northern provinces as big as expected.
The Bemba/Copperbelt coalition is still an anti-Tonga/anti-Southern coalition, so it has an ethnic element to it. UPND has tried to break that coalition, we will see if they succeed.

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PF was in reality a personalistic party built around a charismatic strongman and its members had no influence. When Sata died the party lost the glue that kept it together. Scott and Sata's immediate family have ties to the Cartel of Mahtani, Wynter Kabimba and Fred Mmembe (+ the public prosecutor, who had his debt from a failed business venture written off against acquitting Mahtani for some money laundering charges). Others were against this clique and gathered around Lungu. When Scott tried to convene a General Conference in a party without a proper membership democracy (the delegates had in reality been handpicked by Kabimba) everything fell apart and Lungu's thugs hijacked the first GC and secured him the candidacy with a bit of help from partial judges. After the two rivaling GCs the Army pressed Scott to endorse Lungu and Miles Sampa and later Wynter Kabimba formed their owns parties, since the Cartel had lost it's control over PF. GBM and the Bemba traditionalists/royalists/tribalists (take your pick) were already alienated by Sata's meddling in the succession issue and had little reason to stay on in PF, so they switched side to UPND. They fear Lungu will continue Sata's legacy of interfering in Bemba tribal affairs.

MMD: A majority in the party thought party president Nevers Mumba had no chance and wanted Rupiah Banda as candidate since he could run as a "get the constitution passed and retire" figure and unite the opposition. When Mumba kept being around and HH became the leading opposition figure many MPs decided to jump ship for bread and butter reasons. In the end the Supreme Court imposed Mumba on a reluctant party and Lungu started courting Banda to shore up Eastern province (which he could not afford to lose). Banda and a couple of his sons have corruption charges hanging over their heads and everybody expect there to have been struck a deal before he joined Lungu. As mentioned earlier he and his inner circle may also get to decide Lungu's economic policy, since Lungu probably has none of his own.

[politicus]

51 polling stations will vote today because of bad weather, which will delay the result to Friday:

Early results indicate PF will win Lusaka and the Copperbelt, but their margins are going down considerably. UPNDs gains in especially the rural Copperbelt areas willl even things out considerably. UPND are also taking votes from PF in the  north, whereas PF doesn't make inroads in the South. With PF margins down in their core areas it looks like it is going to be close. Most results announced by this point are from PF strongholds (which the opposition of course claims is a deliberate attempt to infuence the masses perception..). So too early to get a clear picture:

Lusaka Central Constituency
4R – 8
NAREP – 169
UPND – 9190
UNIP – 30
PF – 15077
HERITAGE – 42
MMD – 195
FDD – 135
CDP – 24
GREEN – 10
FDA – 9

Munali Constituency
4R – 34
NAREP – 200
UPND – 14366
UNIP – 187
PF – 27296
HERITAGE – 39
MMD – 373
FDD – 259
CDP – 30
GREEN – 18
FDA – 19

Kabwata Constituency
4R – 10
NAREP – 127
UPND – 10,069
UNIP – 31
PF – 19,704
HERITAGE – 36
MMD – 209
FDD – 119
CDP – 13
GREEN – 7
FDA – 5

UPND has won in Sinda constituency of Eastern Province, which is interesting because Lungu has targeted the East so hard:

Hakainde Hichilema: 3142
Lungu: 2509.

Chogwe:
Hichilema 6853
Lungu 5773

Nothing much totally couted in UPND core areas, but:
Chavuma in Northwetsern, 23 out 36 polling stations counted:
Hichilema Hakainde(UPND): 4898
Lungu Edgar(PF): 792

Mumba Nevers (MMD):185
Nawakwi Edith(FDD):45
Chipimo Elias(NAREP):24
Chanda Eric:22
Kaunda Tilyeji(UNIP):20
Miyanda Godfrey(HERITAGE):12.
Pule Daniel(CDP):4.
Sinkamba Peter(GREEN).
Sondashi Ludwig(FDA):0