Zambia presidential by-election - January 20, 2015

[politicus]

Some prominent MMD people choose Hichilema over Rupiah Banda: Former Foreign Minister and MMD founder Vernon "VJ" Mwaanga, former first lady Maureen Mwanawasa and former MMD national treasurer Suresh Desai have all endorsed Hichilema.

Rupiahs son Andrew Banda also endorses HH, but he is a former UPND youth leader, so that not a big surprise, even if he stayed neutral in 2011.

Maureen Mwanawasa:"Zambia should not make another mistake of voting for older people. We need a young leader who can carry the challenge of the economy."

EDIT: So have former MMD national chairman Michael Mabenga and former Foreign Affairs Minister Kelly Walubita.

[politicus]

Things are as chaotic as ever in PF.

Scott is officially suspended by the CC and he has retaliated by suspending 16 of the rebellious CC members. Today they should have held a "peace meeting", but Scott has refused to let the suspended members participate, which have led the rest of the Lungu wing to leave.

Apart from everything else the Lungu wing is mad at Scott for trying to let the 10 candidates gather and elect a presidential contender, since 5 of the candidates are from the Sata family the idea was that they could elect Christine Kaseba. The second problem is that Scott insists that candidates that risk not meeting the parentage clause have to be weeded out before the GC. Lubinda is either half Swedish or half Indian (probably the latter), GBM has a South African mother, Mulenga Sata's mother is Malawian and Lungu's mother may be Malawian (his family and the local chief denies that, but there are persistent rumours), so this could allow Scott to eliminate quite a few of Dr. Kaseba's rivals.

Meanwhile a PF member has filed an injunction in the Lusaka High Court asking the court to stop the party GC scheduled for November 28-29 from taking place due to "irregularities in the nomination process" because Guy Scott  received the nominations instead of the Secretary General, who is the chief executive officer of the party, A hearing will take place tomorrow.

Another PF member has sued Scott demanding that the court allows the Central Committee to select a presidential candidate.

[politicus]

The Lungu camp has set up a parallel PF "emergency" Central Committee comprising 27 members and has resolved that Guy Scott remains suspended and that they will consider names of presidential applicants tomorrow.

The committee has also resolved that any meeting held and chaired by Scott will be considered illegal as he remains suspended.

Meanwhile Scott and his supporters are holding a CC meeting on their own, where they will probably name Kaseba their recommended candidate, but we will see.

[politicus]

GBM’s younger brother Chilekwa Munkonge has also endorsed Hakainde Hichilema for president! So one more prominent Bemba is on board.

Andrew Banda told a UPND rally in Kanyama that people are "misleading his father that he can win the presidential by-election", and that "he loves his father more than the people who are going to his house to cheat him to resume politics" (running means Banda loses his pension and privileges as former HoS - incl. his residence).

[politicus]

The MMD Youth League has once again urged the MMD NEC to change their decision and let Nevers Mumba run, they have earlier threatened to actively campaign to destroy the party and "burry it in the annals of history", if Mumba isn't reinstated as party president and presidential candidate, so this is likely a last appeal before they go on the attack.

http://www.lusakatimes.com/2014/11/23/reinstate-nevers-demand-mmd-youth/

http://www.lusakatimes.com/2014/11/18/adopt-mmd-mmd-dies-mmd-youth/

[politicus]

Scott and his faction claim that there was a quorum of 50% (16 of 32 active members) on the Sunday CC meeting and they have decided to hold the General Conference on Saturday at Mulungushi Rock. The 16 suspended CC members can only participate, if they have cleared themselves before the party's disciplinary committee, but there are no candidates among them.

All 10 candidates seems to be on the ballot, no mentioning of the parentage clause.

Chishimba Kambwili, GBM, Miles Sampa, Wylbur Simuusa and Mulenga Sata all participated in the briefing after the meeting and Christine Kaseba will of course attend.

That leaves Lungu, Lubinda, Bob Sichinga and the outsider Selemani Banda, but Sichinga is a Sata relative and I am sure he will attend the GC. So the question is what Lungu (and possibly Lubinda) will do next.

https://www.zambianwatchdog.com/pf-sets-next-saturday-for-convention-to-pick-candidate/

EDIT: There is a "caucus" meeting between the two wings tomorrow, but the Scott wing seems to have the upper hand. They demand that Lungu & Co accept their list of delegates and that both sides will respect the result of the GC no matter what.

There is going to be around 5100 delegates - 500 from each province + CC members and MPs. The Cartel is estimated to have control over 3000 of those by Zambian journalists, but those numbers may be way off.

[politicus]

Endorsements keep rolling in for HH.

At a joint press conference the leaders of three small opposition parties Charles Milupi of Alliance for Democracy and Development, Mike Mulongoti of the Peoples’ Party and Nason Musoni of the All People's Congress declared their support for UPND’s Hakainde Hichilema for president.

They called on "all well-meaning Zambians to remove the PF government on 20th January 2015."

Charles Milupi motivated his choice by saying the PF government has been "very repressive, violent and has damaged the economy."

[politicus]

The Lungu wing has agreed to go to the GC, but has "requested" that they use the 2011 registers of delegates (ie. before Wynter Kabimba placed a lot of his supporters on the rolls). The status of this request is a bit unclear, but it will the crucial for Lungu's  chances.

Lungu has struck a deal to stand on Frank Bwalya’ s Alliance for a Better Zambia list if he should lose at the GC.

Frank Bwalya de facto owns the party, since the rest of the executive defected to UPND in July leaving Bwalya alone.

Bwalya has been promised to become Vice President in this scenario.

So status is that Scott's wing gets to arrange the conference, they may get to use the register most beneficial to them and Lungu hasn't agreed to withdraw from the race in case of a defeat.

So off to a great showdown at the rock in the bush. There is going to be 3.000 riot police present alongside the 5.000+ delegates to avoid any violence from the "panga wielding thugs" that PF is infamous for.

EDIT: They will use the 2011 register and it has not been decided whether candidates with one foreign born parent can stand.

EDIT2: The suspension of the 16 members has been terminated, but only after they wrote individual letters apologising their conduct (which may be a bit too humiliating).

[Famous Mortimer]

Frank Bwalya is an interesting fellow. First, he's an active Catholic priest. Second, he became famous for protesting against the rigging of the 2008 elections (by the MMD against the Patriotic Front, who were probably the real winners). That made him quite popular with the Patriotic Front. Later though, he called President Sata a "potato" and was put in jail, charges were later dismissed.

He's a good guy. I'm sad to see him working with Lungu, since I generally like the other faction.

[politicus]

Mulenga Sata has withdrawn from the race, but wont endorse any of the other contenders. He did say he consulted Kaseba before the decision and it will likely benefit her. He has tried to get the court to rule that he is eligible for president and maybe his lawyers have told him that this was impossible.

MMD in the important Copperbelt province has said they consider Nevers Mumba the only legitimate MMD chairman and rightfull presidential candidate and wont compete for Rupiah Banda. So the Youth League is no longer alone in its opposition to him.

HH yesterday said he will recognize Henry Kanyanta Sosala as Paramount Chief Chitimukulu, the heir Sata denied the throne. So he is setting himself up as the champion of the Bemba Royal Establishment. He also promises to use the Presidents right to appoint 8 MPs to include ministers from the five provinces where UNDP isn't represented (Lusaka, East and the three Bemba-speaking provinces in the north) in his government.

[politicus]

Things keep being chaotic:

MMD has officially adopted Rupiah Banda as their candidate and filed in the papers, but Nevers Mumba says that this is "nothing but wishful thinking on the part of the former President", because Banda was nominated by "an illegally constituted National Executive Committee" whose decision to suspend Mumba as Party President has been halted by the Courts of Law.

He says he will lead the party as its Presidential candidate and if Banda wants to contest the Presidency, then he should find another party which has no eligible sitting president and that he will kick off MMDs national campaign in his home district of Chinsali on Saturday.

Mike Mulongoti has withdrawn his endorsement of HH, because he wont promise him the Vice Presidency or another heavy cabinet post.

Scott treatens to postpone the GC for another week because of rumours, that there will be violence (which is like saying it will rain in January in Zambia..), the police has "only" allocated 1.000 riot police officers, not 3.000 as earlier claimed.

Last , but not least, Wynter Kabimba has left PF and will start his own party, he plans to announce its name one Saturday. It will be interesting if he plans to register it before the deadline for submitting candidacies, but why leave PF now if he doesn't want to run?

[politicus]

All in all we could be looking at a situation in which Kaseba or GBM runs for PF, Lungu for ABZ, Banda for MMD and Mumba (when he finally realizes he has lost MMD) for NCC and Kabimba for some new party. This will more or less guarantee HH the presidency since there is no run-off, but it looks like everybody are too stubborn to give up. Still we will know more after Saturday.

[Famous Mortimer]

I'm surprised so many people are running for the PF if only because the PF used to be a tiny ass party. Can you find any information on where these people came from? I know Sata and Scott are from MMD. All the others as well?

[politicus]

All sorts of places, I imagine. Many people were attracted by Sata's charisma and firebrand style and after 2008 it was obvious that he would become president one day.

Edgar Lungu was a lawyer (and a crocked one, got disbarred for embezzling clients funds). He joined UPND back when Anderson Mazoka led them and switched to Sata when he looked like a safer bet. Kaseba is a gynecologist an obstetrician and wasn't active in politics become she joined PF and later married Sata.
Scott is as you say from MMD via his own Lima Party and ZAP. Mulenga Sata is his dads invention. Bob Sichingas son is married to Sata's daughter, so he is related as well. Selemani Banda is an ex- air force officer and was in UNIP. He was jailed by MMD back in 1996 for the Black Mamba bombings in Lusaka, so he was looking for the anti-MMD and joined Sata early on. Miles Sampa is Sata's nephew, so that's another family member.

Dunno about the rest actually, but its a fairly big party now. African parties grow fast when they get into office or are about to get there, its the nature of clientilism.

[politicus]

Zambia Watchdog has a story that Edgar Lungu plans massive violence at the convention to secure his nomination and that Lungu "cadres" has been infused in the police force deployed at the convention by Home Affairs Minister and Lungu ally Ngosa Simbyakula. This should be the reason why Scott consider to postpone the GC.

The background is (according to ZW), that it has been revealed that Lungu's mother is the older sister of Margaret Sata, Mulenga's mother, and that both women are Malawi born. Apparently Lungu was also one of the candidates Scott considered to ban from running at the GC due to potential trouble with the parentage clause.

https://www.zambianwatchdog.com/team-lungu-plans-bloodshed-at-convention-mother-malawian/

[politicus]

Guy Scott has canceled the accreditation of delegates for the PF general conference because of threats by Lungu’s team.

Scott was forced to cancel the process after Lungu supporters attempted to beat up Local Government Minister Emmanuel Chenda, who had to be rescued by police as senior officials in Lungu’s camp ordered thugs to attack him.

Scott says all credentials that have been already issued from any of the registration centres are null and void, and will not be used for entrance into the Mulungushi Rock of Authority area in Kabwe.

Scott says this move has been "necessitated following the illegal takeover of the registration centre at Mulungushi International Conference Centre by unknown persons, and the destruction of the official registers validated and issued by the PF Secretariat at registration centres in Lusaka,Kabwe and Kapiri Mposhi."

He assures the registration process will resume at 08:00 hours at Mulungushi Rock of Authority tomorrow and all legitimate delegates should proceed to Kabwe.

Really hope that the riot police can control this and that the rumours of cadre infiltration of the police are untrue.

[politicus]

Nason Musoni of the All People's Congress has now also withdrawn his support for UPND’s Hakainde Hichilema because he didn't get any guarantee of "spoils".

A handfull of MMD MPs now say they support Hichilema if he accepts one of their MMD colleagues,  Felix Mutati, as VP. It is a bit unclear how much support they have, but its obviously bad new for Rupiah Banda if his MPs start to jump ship. It seems few people really believe in Banda.

[politicus]

The PF GC is utter chaos. The process has been taking over by Lungu supporters who are terrorising the others and preventing some delegates who support the other sidesfrom entering. It has been suspended to check for "ghost delegates", but their has been so much tampering with the registers that this may be impossible to do.Some delegates that have been refused have given up and are returning home.

Miles Sampa has withdrawn and GBM has called to cancellation due to the violent and intimidating climate.

Neither Scott nor Kaseba are at the conference for fear of their safety.

[politicus]

Former intelligence chief under Frederick Chiluba, Xavier Chungu, is in charge of Lungu's operations and that is bad news. Sata set him up with a parallel intelligence structure in 2013 (they knew each oher from the "old" MMD days).

[politicus]

Sampa has rejoined the race because he now feels there is a chance the process will be democratic.

He was dissatisfied that there a) was no accreditation of delegates and it was unclear who was a delegate and who was not. The entry was free for all b) the police were forcing delegates and supporters wearing Sampa branded t-shirts to remove them before entering the grounds, while those wearing Lungu regalia were allowed to enter as is. c) "It was unmistakeable that the democratic process was being
hijacked. PF and Zambia were being robbed of their democratic right to select their preferred canditate."

[politicus]

Kenneth Kaunda's son Tilyenji Kaunda is running for his dads old UNIP party. It is a shadow of its former self, but junior seems determined to keep it going.

[politicus]

The GC looks like a flop. Guy Scott and Bridget Atanga are still absent, the chairperson for elections Sylvia Masebo has demanded, that the thugs who have invaded the venue pretending to be delegates vacate the place so that genuine delegates can go in. But the Lungu faction’s "ghost delegates" have refused to move out. So the stalemate stands. Many delegates have already left and more will this evening to get to work tomorrow. Hygeine and food are also problematic by now.

For the PF elections to proceed, Guy Scott is required to chair the proceedings and then Masebo is supposed to certify the electoral process, so the Lungu faction can not go ahead and elect him. An attempt to oust Scott by a provisional "National Council" has been dropped. Meanwhile Frank Bwalya (who has no business attending the conference, as he is not a member) is there urging Kaseba to step down because Mulenga Sata has endorsed Lungu and he is now the candidate of the Sata family!

Apparently the police has either been bought or are infiltrated by Lungu supporters. All though some of them may also genuinely support him. Looks like Lungus status as minister of both defence and justice simply gives him too much power over the security forces for Scott to use them to restore order, but he is probably also reluctant to use force against his own party colleagues.

[politicus]

Returning officer Tutwa Ngulube has declared Edgar Lungu as PF president and presidential candidate.

Ten minutes earlier Sylvia Masebo went on stage and announced that there would be no voting as procedure had not been followed and that the assembled delegates were not the right ones.
She said any voting that would take place would be "null and void." Lungu’ supporters then attempted to lynch her, but she was rescued by police who took her outside. Police had to fire teargas to disperse the cadres.

Ngulube then invited all contesters to go the front each with 200 supporters. Apart from Lungu, none of the other candidates were present and he therefore declared Lungu as unopposed winner!

Guy Scott, Secretary General Bridget Atanga and all the other candidates were not in the hall (most never went to Kabwe and it seems none of those who went dared to atttend the GC).

EDIT: The other eight candidates had obtained a court injunction against the General Conference going ahead, so none of them went to Kabwe or Mulungushi.

[politicus]

Its a bit unclear what Lungu hopes to accomplish by this. His "election" is clearly not legally valid, so he wont be accepted as candidate by the Electoral Commission, but he is likely just trying to block the others. He has also alienated the rest of the party by beating up rival delegates and destroying the process, so large parts of the party wont campaign for him even if he was accepted  and he has no access to state ressources.
Playing for time seems like a bad idea as the Electoral Commission has refused to extend the registration deadline, so in the end PF could wind up without a candidate at all.

Another possibility is that he is trying to coup Scott by force, but Zambia has no tradition for coups, so I doubt the Army will allow a coup d'etat.

[politicus]

The rest of the PF candidates are holding an alternative GC in Kabwe presided over by Guy Scott. Secretary General Bridget Atanga and all candidates apart from Edgar Lungu are attending. Verification and registration of delegates is currently going on at Walusungu Lodge in Kabwe and voting will take place either tonight or tomorrow. Good news.

EDIT: Scott says the presidential candidate will be elected tomorrow.