Zambia presidential by-election - January 20, 2015

[politicus]

Zambia will be electing a new President in January to serve the remainder of the late Michael Sata's term (January 2015 to September 2016). There are three major parties in Zambia - two leftist and one liberal and they will all run candidates as well as a handfull of smaller parties. The liberal candidate is already known, but the Patriotic Front (Sata's party) and Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) will decide in the coming month and tough power struggles await.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zambian_presidential_election,_2015

[Famous Mortimer]

The two main parties are nominally social democratic but really they're just ideologically void.

The opposition Movement for Multiparty Democracy is exactly what its name suggests. It brought together the opposition to the single party state in the early 90s. It had no real platform other than "free elections are nice" and even on that point, it has since wavered.

The Patriotic Front splintered away from the MMD when Michael Sata failed to get their presidential nomination. So their platform is basically "free elections are nice, especially when Michael Sata is a candidate" and he's dead now.

United Party for National Development is definitely a the most ideologically committed of the major parties although that's not saying much. In the 2006 elections, it ran in an alliance with UNIP (the former sole legal party) and Forum for Democracy and Development, another group of MMD lawmakers who were mad they got passed over. Then in 2009 it made an alliance with the Patriotic Front.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Will Guy Scott be able to run? It'd be pretty weird for an African nation to elect a white leader.

[politicus]

Will Guy Scott be able to run? It'd be pretty weird for an African nation to elect a white leader.

No not according to his own statements. Besides 1) his wing of the party has lost the internal power struggle during Sata's illness, so he wouldn't be nominated even if he was eligible and they would disregard race as a factor 2) at 70 he is rather old. Two of five Zambian Presidents have now died in office of natural causes and I think the major parties will go for someone younger, this will likely also rule out ex president Rupiah Banda from MMD, who is 77.

[Nhoj]

Will Guy Scott be able to run? It'd be pretty weird for an African nation to elect a white leader.

No not according to his own statements. Besides 1) his wing of the party has lost the internal power struggle during Sata's illness, so he wouldn't be nominated even if he was eligible and they would disregard race as a factor 2) at 70 he is rather old. Two of five Zambian Presidents have now died in office of natural causes and I think the major parties will go for someone younger, this will likely also rule out ex president Banda from MMD, who is also 70+.

Mwanawasa wasn't all that old when he died in office, only 59

[politicus]

The one guy we know will run is businessman Hakainde Hichilema (52), who is the President of the market liberal and social liberal United Party for National Development (UPND) and got 18,2% last time. He has an MBA in Finance & Business Strategy from the University of Birmingham and his career has primarily been in accounting with CEO and partner in Coopers & Lybrand/Grant Thornton from 1994-2006 as the high point. Hichilema sat on a dozen agribusiness, mining, finance and media company boards, which he gave up when he became party president in 2006. He is also a succesful entrepreneur and commercial farmer and is rumoured to have a personal net worth around 80 mio. $.
In his own words he "was born in grass thatched house, not in a maternity wing of a hospital or clinic, walked to school bare foot, drew water from shallow wells", so a genuine African style rags to riches story.



HH is a solid candidate with broad appeal in his own Tonga-speaking Southern Province and among Zambia's middle class, but he never does well among the poor and rubes in other ethnic communities.

In  2006 Hichilema ran as the candidate of the multiparty United Democratic Alliance (UDA) against incumbent president Levy Mwanawasa from MMD and Michael Sata (PF). Hichilema was  endorsed by former President Kenneth Kaunda, but only got third place with about 25% of the vote.

Hichilema ran for UPND in the 2008 by- election after the death of President Levy Mwanawasa (MMD). Again 3rd with 19.7% of the vote.

In 2009 UPND  formed a pact with Sata's PF to contest the 2011 election together, but they couldn't agree who should run for President (Sata basically created PF to become President so he of course wanted the sloth) and they distrusted each other deeply. Sata's inner circle (the so called A team) with  Fred M'membethe owner of Zambia's most important daily The Post and Guy Scott decided to go it alone and Sata and PF won on a populist pro-labour and anti-Chinese campaign.

After three wasted years with broken PF promises UPND should in principle be able to do well since the other opposition party MDM is unimpressive, but a market liberal/social liberal program only gets you so far in a poor, conservative African country. HH's strenght is his impressive business experience, success, intelligence and relatively young age (52 is young in Zambian politics..) + a united party behind him and his ability to self finance his campaign.

[Јas]

2) at 70 he is rather old. Two of five Zambian Presidents have now died in office of natural causes and I think the major parties will go for someone younger,

I don't think this is as much an issue as you might think.
A 70 year old would still be younger than most of his southern African colleagues.

Birth Year - Head of Govt (State)
1924   Mugabe   (Zimbabwe)
1935   Pohamba   (Namibia)
1939   Thabane   (Lesotho)
1940   Mutharika   (Malawi)
1942   Zuma   (South Africa)
1942   Dlamini   (Swaziland)
1942   dos Santos  (Angola)
1943   Guebeza   (Mozambique)
1944   Michel   (Seychelles)
1944   Scott   (Zambia)
----------------------------------------
1947   Ramgoolam  (Mauritius)
1950   Kikwete   (Tanzania)
1953   Khama   (Botswana)
1958   Rajaonarimampianina  (Madagascar)
1971   Kabila   (DR Congo)

[politicus]

I don't think this is as much an issue as you might think.
A 70 year old would still be younger than most of his southern African colleagues.

Sure, but they also pay a prize for it (see Why do African presidents keep dying?) and it has been a theme in the Zambian press. I think at the very least the death of Sata will make it hard for his coeval Rupiah Banda to run.

On why they allowed Scott to take over despite his wing being in minority:
http://zambiadailynation.com/2014/10/30/scott-acts/

[politicus]

A good, if not unbiased, article on factional struggle in PF. The article says Fred M’membe is pursuing multiple plans, primarily trying to get the disgraced former Minister of Justice Wynter Kabimba back in the running, but: "M’membe may attempt to go to court to interpret the constitutional provision that bars Zambia’s first white president." to have a fall back option. Also speculates that M’membe will bribe Central Comitee members to gain control.

Its important to note that Scott was also Vice President of PF, so he is now acting Party President untill the next congress, while Edgar Lungu is General Secretary. So the most important posts in PF are divided between the two factions.

http://zambiareports.com/2014/10/30/mmembe-calls-pf-ceasefire-secretly-attempts-impose-kabimba-satas-successor/

PF members demonstrating against Scott's appointment.

http://zambiareports.com/2014/10/30/pf-cadres-storm-lusaka-streets-protest-guy-scott-appointment/

Lots of rumours, among them that Dr. Rajan Mahtani (ethnically Indian), creator and head of the influential Finance Bank which has made fortunes out of the Sata administration has transferred large sums of money abroad and is planning to escape before a new opposition (either PF-opposition or MMD) President will likely take over after the election as he fear criminal charges. Finance Bank is 40% owned by Credit Suisse, the rest of the ownership is off-shore companies, but Mahtani probably owns most of it himself.

http://zambiareports.com/2014/10/29/mahtani-panicks-moves-billions-zambia/

Scott has declined to say when the official mourning period ends (and the election campaign can start), apparently in order to keep the opposition of guard. Maybe PF is going for a short campaign, hoping symphaty votes will win it for them?

When President Mwanawasa died in 2008 the mourning period was 21 days.

[politicus]

Activist Chilufya Tayali director of the Zambian Voice citizen involvememt NGO will challenge the appointment of Scott in court, the interesting thing is he will likely be joined by PF Youth.

[politicus]

The latest development in the PF power struggle is that Fred M’membe apparently is trying to recruit Michael Sata's son Mulenga Sata as VP for either a Kabimba or Scott ticket in order to harvest sympathy votes. The back up plan for "The Cartel" is according to Zambia Report to make an alliance with Hakainde Hichilema and support him against concessions if they fail to field their own man as the PF candidate.

A Guy Scott/Mulenga Sata ticket would be a provocation to many since Mulenga's mother is born in Malawi and only entered Zambia in 1967, three years after independence, so even if you interpret the parentage clause as only applying to the post-independence period he is not eligible to become President in case Scott dies.

[politicus]

From Zambia Report:

"Among those said to be vying to be elected as presidential candidate for the PF include;

1. Defence Minister, Justice Minister and PF Secretary General, Edgar Lungu

2. Former Defence Minister, Geoffrey Bwalya Mwamba (GBM)

3. Former Secretary General and former Justice Minister, Wynter Kabimba

4. Mayor of Lusaka and president's son, Mulenga Sata (but has Malawian mother...)

5. Finance Minister, Alexander Bwalya Chikwanda

6. Sports Minister, Chishimba Kambwili

7. Deputy Minister of Commerce, Miles Sampa

8. Former Foreign Affairs Minister and former PF Spokesperson, Given Lubinda. (but has Swedish father...)

Others said to be in the race include, "Bashi Nono" Robert Sichinga, Minister of Commerce and Industry, Foreign Affairs Minister Harry Kalaba and a wild card being drawn from Panji Kaunda, Deputy Minister of Works, Supply, Transport and Communication.

THE OPPOSITION

For the opposition, shifting of cards is also underway. Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party for National Development (UPND), who has been attempting to win the presidency since 2006, hopes that this opportunity gives him the presidency.

The UPND has institutional stability and despite its losses in the last few years, hopes to finally grab power from the PF taking advantage and preying on the internal strife in the ruling party.

Others of interest and waiting in the in the wings include Nevers Mumba, leader of the former ruling party, MMD, who is attempt to fend off Rupiah Banda's recent manauevres.

Others are Elias Chipimo of NAREP, a youthful leader that has never taken advantage of the youth, a block vote that determines who becomes president.

But of interest are speculations about Rupiah Banda's return to politics and his efforts to be the "Opposition's" candidate. Young people are alarmed at the prospect of another old leader. So Banda's chances are dim, as he has to look for a party vehicle to sponsor him and face an electorate that rejected him just three years ago.

Others attempting to seize the chance at the presidency include upstarts like Dora Siliya's Genuine Peoples Platform (GPP) which will join Mike Mlongoti's People's Party (PP), Dr. Fred Mutesa, of the Zambia Empowerment and Development (ZED) and a plethora of many small political parties."

There are three different camp in PF trying to get the party presidency, each having their own financiers trying to bribe members of the 50 seat strog Central Comitee and this needs to be settlled before they can chose a presidential candidate. But it seems Nevers should be the MMD candidate without too much trouble as Banda is considered a has-been.

Notice that both Kabimba and Lubinda (both charismatic guys) have been fired. Kabimba  for corruption and Lubinda for allgedly  "selling party secrets to the Daily Nation and the opposition".

[politicus]

A bit of background.

1. After Frederick Chiluba had enacted the parentage clause in 1996 to bar Kaunda from returning  it was in 1998 found out that Chiluba himself was born in Beligian Congo and that his parents were probably also born in Congo and he was sued, but the Supreme Court ruled that:

“Whichever of the several biographies proposed to the court was adopted, before independence the respondent had been a British protected person ‘belonging’ to Northern Rhodesia, in terms of the Constitution of Northern Rhodesia 1963, having been born in Northern Rhodesia or whose parents were ordinarily resident there.”

With this judgment Chiluba was allowed to continue his second term. Scott logically qualifies in the same way as his parents were also residents of Northern Rhodesia prior to independence.  

2. Scott allegedly has Parkinsons disease (which he denies) and has had cancer under one eye.

3. Zambia should have had a new coherent constitution and there is a draft constitution circulating, but Sata dragged his feet out of fear of losing power) and it was never implemented.

The new constitution would change the following:

1. Voters elect a combined President/Vice President ticket and the VP takes over if the President dies (by elections abolished).

2. 50%+1 required to become President/VP, run-off between the top two tickets if this requirement isn't met.

3. 2/3 of the Cabinet can decide to establish a medical board to determine whether the President is still fit for office.

4. The President must select Cabinet members from outside Parliament (sic).

5. Parliament elected by 60% FPTP/40% PR (100% FPTP today), the 8 presidentially elected members are abolished. The Speaker is elected by MPs, but can not be an MP. VP is an MP. 2/3 of MPs can decide to change to 100% PR.

6. At least 30% women MPs and an equitable representation of youth and disabled (but no specification of how this is aquired).

7. A Bill of Rights, where civil rights are guaranteed better (this is the main thing for the opposition) and a Human Rights Commission.

[politicus]

There are three camps in the succession war in PF:

A. "The Cartel", unofficially led by Fred M'membe, they are pursuing  two options:

1. Fielding a combination of former Justice Minister Wynter Kabimba and UPND president Hakainde Hichilema. They seem to have abandoned Scott and Mulenga Sata since the parentage clause makes this too risky.

2. Secretary to the Cabinet Rowland Msiska is their backup if Hichilema says no.

Finance Bank owner Rajan Mathani is said to have offered K100,000 to each member of the Central Committee to vote for Rowland Msiska if Hakainde Hichilema does not agree to work with Kabimba. There are about 50 members of the CC, which picks the party's successor.

B. The second group is led by former Defense Minister Geoffrey "GBM" Bwalya Mwamba, who also wants the PF presidency, and has staked K50,000 for every member of the Central Committee.
He is a member of the Bemba royal family and backed by the Paramount Chief Chitimukulu, Henry Kanyanta Sosala and resigned last year after being forced by Sata to choose between allegiance to him and Sosala.

C. The third group is led by Satas uncle Finance Minister Alexandar Chikwanda who has the backing of Lusaka lawyer Kelvin "KBF" Bwalya Fube and Lusaka businessmen James "Jimmy Fingers" Chungu and Stephen "Mikalile" Mulenga. It is a bit unclear how united this group is, especially whether Lungu remains loyal to Chikwanda, and some of its members have apparently been negotiating with Fred M'membe .

Zambia Report cites a prominent PF members for:

"There is money bonanza in the PF. GBM is offering K50,000 for each Member of the Central Committee (MCC) to vote for him while the cartel has countered that with K100,000 for each with the support of Rajan Mathani. The cartel has another option of Rowland Msiska. We are yet to know how much the Chikwanda team is offering".

This source also said it was unbelievable that even Sports Minister Chishimba Kambwili and Commerce Minister Bob Sichinga (from the Chikwanda camp) have had a meeting with Post Newspapers owner Fred M'membe yesterday.

"I know people will not believe this. Kambwili and Bob Sichinga met Fred M'membe yesterday. Things are moving fast."

[politicus]

Since it seems almost certain who will be the MMD candidate (and his facebook says he is running) I will introduce:

Nevers Mumba (54) is a charismatic, intelligent, silver tongued Bemba from northern Zambia and the nephew of former President Kenneth Kaunda.
He studied theology in the US at the Christ for the Nations Bible College in Dallas, where he graduated in 1984. Afterwards he founded the Victory Bible Church (now a chain of 42 churches) and came to fame as a fiery TV-evangelist with the Zambia Shall Be Saved TV broadcasts and is now running the international Victory Ministries channel and pulling large crowds on bible tours in Zambia, Uganda, Namibia and South Africa.



Mumba ran in the 2001 Presidential election for his own National Citizens Coalition party after God "told him to save Zambia through the ballot box". Apparently God forgot to tell the voters because he only got 2%. His vision is "to cleanse the country of corruption and improve the living standards of ordinary Zambians" guided by "the message of the scriptures that say when the righteous rule, people rejoice" (well that is his own version..).
Mumba joined MMD in 2003 when he was hand picked as Vice President by Mwanasawa, but they fell out and he was fired in 2004. He was Zambia's High Commissioner to Canada 2009-2011.

Since 2012 he has been MMD President and has a strained relationship with his predecessor Rupiah Banda. Mumba is a big boxing fan, so lets see if the preacher man can knock out whoever PF decides to run.

[Famous Mortimer]

Is he really Kaunda's nephew or is that just some BS honorific because they're from the same tribe/town? Like how Obama is Odinga's cousin?

Also, I wonder if Banda could resurrect the UNIP, since he used to be a member up until relatively recently.

[politicus]

Is he really Kaunda's nephew or is that just some BS honorific because they're from the same tribe/town? Like how Obama is Odinga's cousin?

Yes, his mother is Kaunda's sister.

[politicus]

Also, I wonder if Banda could resurrect the UNIP, since he used to be a member up until relatively recently.

Not likely, it's led by Tilyenji Kaunda (son of Kenneth), who is "only" 60 and Mumba's cousin + Banda ditched them in 2006 to become Mwanawasa's VP, so they  probably view him as a turncoat, but stranger things have happened in African politics.

I think Banda's only chance of getting any traction as a non-MMD candidate would be if PF also nominate a Bemba (like Mumba). Despite his Malawian parents Kaunda was raised in a Bemba speaking area and had it as his native tongue and both Chiluba and Sata were Bembas, so they have been heavily overrepresented at the top and especially under Chiluba they were seen as too dominant and trying to repress other language groups.

Banda is a Chewa from the east and Hichilema is a Tonga from the south and southerners seem to be unpopular in the rest of the country + Hichilema has played the ethnic card a couple of years ago, when he accused the elite of eliminating Tonga politicians.

I could see Banda running as the anti-Bemba, non-southern option if PF nominates a Bemba. Still it will be difficult for a 77 year old to get elected when another 77 year old has just died in office after hiding his disease in five months and lying about his general health for years. If the rest of the candidates are men in their early-mid 50s like Mumba and Hichilema and possibly a 40+  candidate from PF he will stand out.

[politicus]

Sata's body has arrived in Lusaka and he will be buried November 11, with the fortnight from October 29 to November 11 as national mourning period, where all (official) political activity is barred, so no central committee meetings or public candidacy declarations before the 12th.
Two weeks is a week shorter than Mwanawasa got.

[politicus]

Mulenga Sata says Guy Scott is out of the race to become President and that he is contemplating a run himself.

http://zambiareports.com/2014/11/02/guy-scott-pf-race-says-mulenga-sata/

Also, Zambian journalists say that the basis for a potential Kabimba and Hichilande cooperation is that both men view the coming election as a contest between the Bembas and the non-Bemba speaking tribes.

Apart from protecting certain economic interests "The Cartel" is also an attempt to keep the Bembas out of power in the otherwise Bemba dominated PF and this is a major reason for all unrest.



Note: Bemba is the lingua franca for 18 other tribes and is this language community in the north-east/central north that is politically relevant, not whether one is a member of the actual Bemba tribe. Because of migration Lamba (which is basically a Bemba dialect) is the lingua franca of Lusaka.

On the language situation:
http://www.dw.de/zambia-grapples-with-language-challenge/a-16598662

[politicus]

All gloves are off in the PF power struggle as Guy Scott fires Edgar Lungu as PF Secretary General! Riots by students and PF cadres in Lusaka. Crazy that he is doing it before Sata is buried. Apparently it's to get Wynter Kabimba back as SG of the party.

Lungu is still in the Cabinet, though. He says Scott has "insulted the culture of Zambians" by firing him while Sata isn't buried. Lungu has called Scott's decision illegal and called an emergency meeting in the Central Committee today. Scott has previously banned all party meetings during the mourning period.

MP Nixon Chilangwa is new PF Secretary General after The Cartels first choice former Deputy Defence Minister Davies Mwila turned down his appointment, saying it was "ill timed". The new SG is considered a political lightweight.

Scott has an emergency meeting this morning with some cabinet ministers and members of the Central Committee.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201411040107.html

[politicus]

Guy Scott has reinstated presidential aspirant Edgar Lungu as Secretary General of PF.

Scott's decision follows widespread discontent within the party and violent protests on the streets of Lusaka and a warning from the Sports Minister (who is also head of the PF Youth League), that firing Lung - especially in the time of mourning - would lead to violence.

Lungu was returned to office after a meeting with senior party officials, including Lungu, at Scott's home.

At the same time Scott has said that in the wake of the death of President Sata, any party Central Committee member who wants to stand for election as presidential candidate would have to step down. So if Lungu runs he will have to resign - at least according to Scott.

It should be noted that there were also protest outside of Lusaka. In Kitwe PF Youth League members  locked up District Commissioner Elias Kamanga in his office singing songs in solidarity of Edgar Lungu and warning those supporting The Cartel not to visit Kitwe, while waving placards with "Guy Scott is a Pig". Kamanga has been released following the reinstatement of Lungu.

[politicus]

Really good analysis by a Zambian political analyst, who is currently lecturing at Oxford, of the power struggle in PF and why the party may break up + an evaluation of the oppositions chances.

"The rebellion and legitimacy crisis that Scott faces both in Cabinet and the PF reflects a legacy of the style of management of Sata, both at party and government levels. The extent to which the PF, hardly known for any transparent and competitive internal democracy, can agree on a candidate to succeed Sata and unite behind them will determine whether it can outlive its founder."

His evaluation is that there are basically only two factions in PF split along ethnic lines, with non-Bemba Edgar Lungu being the Bemba factions bid for a compromise candidate "in order to secure their positions and fend off accusations of ethnic inclination.”

On Scott and the parentage clause, he cuts to the chase and states that even if unlikely Scott could run  for presidency by "citing a 1998 landmark Supreme Court judgement that effectively struck down the "parentage clause" as unconstitutional, even if the judges did not have the courage to make this point explicit.”

http://allafrica.com/stories/201411051666.html

.....

He thinks the likelihood of an opposition victory is small since "they have to raise considerable resources within a short time to mount an effective campaign against the governing party."

MMD, is locked in its own internal squabbles and has to decide whether to float its present leader, Nevers Mumba (54) or former president Rupiah Banda, who, despite being has refused to rule out a return to politics.

UPND and Hichilema, still relies on support from the Tonga-speaking Southern Province, even if it has made small but significant inroads among middle class voters in other provinces, especialy Copperbelt and North-Western (Bemba heartland).

Hichilema is a triple presidential loser, a fourth unsuccessful attempt will affect the UPNDs chances in 2016, and may lead to calls for him to step aside.

There are basically only two chances for the opposition:

1. The losing fraction in the PF power struggle could leave the party to join either Hichilema or Mumba and help build a political alternative to wrestle power from the rump PF.

2. The opposition could build an electoral alliance and float a common candidate.

[politicus]

The five party Alliance of Opposition Political Parties formed in February to field one candidate in parliamentary and presidential elections faces disintegration at the first hurdle after MMD has announced that it will go it alone in the forthcoming Presidential by-election in January citing the short time available as reason.

MMD president Nevers Mumba says he is ready for the January 2015 presidential election, but the party has opened nominations for all eligible members to be considered for selection.

Elections to elect their presidential candidate will be held "soon".

The other alliance members are: People's Party, Zambians for Empowerment and Development, Alliance for a Better Zambia and All People's Congress.

None of them are strong enough to field a successful candidate on their own, so it makes sense, but jeopardizing the carefully crafted alliance may ruin MMDs prospects in the 2016 parliamentary election.

[politicus]

Edgar Lungu used Sata's funeral to launch his Presidential bid staging a moving performance that included a dramatic breakdown  as he addressed mourners at the Heroes Stadium in Lusaka during the final send off mass and attacked The Cartel for trying to wrestle the party from its rightful owners, while PF cadres "cheered his every word" before "hooking them all in with his final breakdown during the requiem".

Edgar Lungu:

"The future of the Patriotic is therefore assured. President Sata's party therefore is not for sell to the highest bidder. Let me repeat that for emphasis President Sata's Patriotic Front is not for sell to the highest bidder. It is for the poor, the marginalized."

"We shall not allow personal interests and cartels driven by personal interests and greed to take away the Patriotic Front."

He "tearfully left the podium as he was crying, cutting his speech short for dramatic effect".

Lungu is expected to hit the campaign trail today in the race for the PF presidential ticket.