Zambia presidential by-election - January 20, 2015

[politicus]

Lungu has fired Bridget Atange as SG, as well as her deputy Anthony Kasolo and Sylvia Masebo. His ally National Chairperson Inonge Wina has send in the PF adoption certificate for presidential candidate. He also claims he has a court injunction against Scott going on with the GC, but Scott denies that.

Meanwhile the Scott GC has been moved to Mulungushi University and the candidates are presenting their manifestos, but most of the delegates turned away by Lungu's people have gone home and this may call the legitimacy of whoever is elected into question.

EDIT: Davies Chama is the new Lungu faction Secretary General. The court injunction against Scotts GC seems to be a fact (quoted by several  local media).

[politicus]

Kambwili. Given Lubinda and Wylbur Simuusa have withdrawn, stating that the Scott led conference also doesn't have the properly appointed delegates and that they don't want to support division in the party and Christine Kaseba hasn't turned up for the conference. It looks like Miles Sampa will win.

[politicus]

Miles Sampa wins the PF candidacy at the Scott GC, but less than 2.000 delegates out of the 5.000+ that should have been present in a full GC voted.

Miles Sampa: around 900 
Geoffrey Bwalya Mwamba: 195
Christine Kaseba: 20
Bob Sichinga: 7
Edgar Lungu: 5
Selemani Banda: 4

The remaining votes were spoiled, which may have been in protest.

The results wont be officially announced until the court injunction that has been granted to the Edgar Lungu team has been addressed in court.

[Famous Mortimer]

Who is Miles Sampa?

[politicus]

Who is Miles Sampa?

Deputy Minister of Commerce and, more importantly, Sata's nephew. This is unfortunately a clear indication that the rumours about the Scott wing being dominated by The Cartel are true. Sampa has a reputation as rather childish and a bit of a buffoon (saying stupid things such as that he should be the heir because he gave Sata his car to campaign when he was poor) and I doubt anyone would have appointed him if they were looking for the best candidate, but unlike some of the others he has his own cadres  which stayed after the normal delegates went home (and apparently also intimidated some).

But I dunno how they can expect him to beat HH. Its all rather strange. Kaseba never went to Mulungushi, but sent a representative, so she de facto withdrew (to make room for Sampa?), but why not withdraw outright then?

[politicus]

The court case involving the legitimacy of the two PF GCs has been postponed to December 5.

Confirrmed that Miles Sampa was also "elected" PF party president.

[politicus]

Clashes between Sampa and Lungu supporters in Lusaka today.

http://zambiareports.com/2014/12/02/riots-among-ruling-party-factions-hit-lusaka/

Zambia Watchdog claims the judge that granted the injunction against Scott's GC was bribed.

https://www.zambianwatchdog.com/lungu-orders-his-supporters-to-riot/

[politicus]

Zambia Watchdog claims that Acting Chief Justice Lombe Chibesakunda has ordered the High Court Judges handling the PF injunctions to rule in favour of Edgar Lungu in all cases.

Chibesakunda is the aunt of Lungu's VP candidate Chiefs and Traditional Affairs Minister Nkandu Luo. As part of the deal Luo's elder brother the Chief Chewe will be installed as Paramount Chief of the Bembas and Chibesakunda will be confirmed as permanent Supreme Court Judge and Chief Justice.

They say this family connection is also why the High Court denied the Scott wing an injunction on Sunday to retrain the Lungu camp from going ahead with their conference, while giving Lungu an injunction against Scott's conference.

Its all in the family in Zambia. Will be interesting to see if ZW is right about this.

...

The electoral commission has confirmed that there will be no extension of candidate submissions, so the clock is ticking for PF.

The Grand Mufti of Zambia has endorsed Rupiah Banda, there aren't that many Muslims in Zambia, but it might be an important swing vote if they vote based on religion and not tribe.

EDIT: Only 1% of Zambians are  Muslims, so hardly an important endorsement - thought it might have been a bit higher like 4-5%.

[politicus]

Chibesakunda has declined to take the case due to inhability after the media exposure of her family ties, so that's something.

The parties in PF will meet at 5PM today to try to compromise, but its hard to see that happening.

A well respected politologist from UoZ has said what everybody is thinking, that this will end with two candidates from both MMD and PF running with the losers using small empty shell parties - the question is now just who gets to use the party labels. Given the lack of run-off that is almost certainly going to hand the presidency to HH.

No published statement from the meeting. ZR cites an anonymous source "close to Kambwili" for saying they might agree on Lungu after all...

[politicus]

Miles Sampa says he will either form his own party or join HH if he doesn't get the PF nomination...
He will await the Supreme Court ruling on the GCs, but claims he is already negotiating with HH! A bit weird to publicly state you are negotiating with your opponents, but then Zambian politics is weird.

Edgar Lungu started his campaign today with a rally  in Kitwe, so far it looks like he has the (right) judges in his pocket, but maybe not the Supreme Court? Time will tell.

[politicus]

Given Lubinda and Chishimba Kambwili are campaigning with Lungu, so they have taken his side and finally given up on their own chances. This leaves Wylbur Simuusa as the last of the three non-Lungu contenders who didn't stand at the Scott GC. He is too marginal to matter, so this rules out any challenge to both GCs. Simply things slightly

Very low turnout to Sampa rallies.

[politicus]

Kaseba is said to have made a deal with Lungu of supporting him (incl. a major campaign contribution) against a promise to avoid any criminal charges or investigations against her and her family for corruption (quite large) and abuse of authority committed under Sata's presidency. Would explain why she never showed up at Mulungushi Rock (she seemed to be Scott's chosen candidate before the GC). She was vilified for not following the traditional conduct of a good African widow an may have realised she couldn't win and Mulenga Sata had already dropped out, so Lungu was their best bid.

EDIT: A company called Kasachi Logistics Limited (owned by Kaseba and her step children Mwango Sata and Chilufya Sata, as well as their half sister Chimwemwe Sichinga - married to Commerce, Trade, and Industry Minister Bob Sichinga’s son - is earning millions of dollars from a preferential no-bid contract to the government Food Reserve Agency (obvious conflict of interest and abuse of power on behalf of the first family). It  was formed to take over the contracts formerly handled by then Minister of Defence Geoffrey Bwalya Mwamba’s Arizona Marketing company following his ouster from the government.
In addition to these deals, Kaseba placed an underqualified daughters in a disgustingly well-paid senior position at parastatal ZESCO.

[politicus]

A Lusaka High Court judge has dismissed an injunction in which MMD president Nevers Mumba wanted to prevent the party from suspending him, so the suspension stands and Mumba has run out of legal options to prevent Rupiah Banda from running on the MMD ticket,

[politicus]

Lungu and Foreign Minister Harry Kalaba was on a visit to Harare to meet Mugabe on Wednesday. Zambia Watchdog claims they received funding and election rigging tips.. Of course they deny that, but its a fact that they travelled without the permission from the President, that all cabinet members are supposed to have when they travel out of the country. Kalaba called PF and ZANU-PF sister parties..

[politicus]

The Supreme Court moved the Sampa case to Monday, which means Sampa will likely run out of time before it is settled, since deadline is December 17 - seems to confirrm Lungu has good friends in the judiciary.

A poll by Zambian Eye with just 821 respondents:

Hichilema  57.7%,
Edgar Lungu 35.6%
Rupiah Banda 1.7%
Elias Chipimo (NAREP) 0.9%
Tilyenji Kaunda (UNIP) 0.1%
Edith Nawakwi (FDD) 0.1%

No idea if its worth anything - likely not.

[politicus]

The Electoral Commission has published their nomination schedule for all registered parties, that say they plan to field a candidate. A lot of them are empty shells owned by someone, so there should be ample opportunity for Sampa or Nevers Mumba to find a sponsor if they want to. I don't understand why exactly the parties needs to declare on different dates, since they don't seem to need signatures that have to be controlled. General Myyindas Heritage Party is not on the list, which is surprising as he has already declared his candidacy (as usual). The ones marked with # have already declared a candidate (well, PF has declared two..).

The Electoral Commission of Zambias schedule for Presidential nominations:

Wednesday, December, 17th 2014
The Forum for Democratic Alternative.
Green Party #
The Redemption Party.

Thursday, December 18th, 2014
The Forum for Democracy and Development (FDD) #
National Restoration Party (NAREP) #
The United Poor Peoples of Zambia Freedom Party

Friday December 19,2014.
The United Independence Party (UNIP) #
The Fourth Revolution Party
The United Party for National Development (UPND) #

Saturday, December 20th, 2014
The Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) #
The Patriotic Front (PF) #
The Christian Democratic Party #

Sunday, December 21st, 2014
The National Revolution Party
The Democratic Front party

Monday, December 22nd, 2014
Common Cause Democracy,
Nationalist Party
National Party

Tuesday, December 23rd, 2014
Zambia Direct Democracy Movement

[politicus]

Former PF SG and Justice Minister Wynter Kabimba has launched a new party: The Rainbow Party (sic!) backed by among others the provincial chairman of PF Lusaka. Kabimba hopes to be able to run as presidential candidate for the party and since he was the Scott wings preferred leadership candidate before he got fired in August it will be interesting to see how Scott handles the situation with Sampa stuck in legal quagmire and unlikely to meet the registration deadline.

Zambians have mocked the party name online, but because of the gay connotations, not the oral sex reference. Still an odd choice of name in a country as homophobic as Zambia.

[politicus]

Lungu has called an "emergency" PF Central Committee meeting and got them to approve firing Scott as PF Vice President! (Scott was considered party VP by both factions after the two GCs) because Scott had told the Electoral Commission not to make any decision on PF candidacy before the courts had ruled on the matter.

The Sampa/Lungu case is before the Lusaka High Court, but has been postponed to Thursday by the judge related to Lungu, who previously had excused herself (joke court..). Since the deadline for PF nomination is set to December 20, they wont make it - so even if they can get another (unbiased) judge to look at the case it will be too late.

It seems Kabimba will first try his luck in 2016, so its unclear what the Scott wing will do now.

[politicus]

When (if?) Lungu is nominated as PF candidate he should step down as Defence- and Justice Minister according to Zambian practice because active Cabinet members are not allowed to run for President because of fear of abuse of state resources and/or undue pressure on civil servants. So the next question is whether Lungu will do this. With a hostile Scott he wont have any access to state resources if he does it and no (formal) control of police/army.

[politicus]

The President will be elected by the 2011 electorate (there is no continuous voter registration and they only register voters at General Elections to save money). So the 18-22 year olds (+ "older" voters who didn't register in 2011) are disenfranchised, that is quite a large group in a country with as young a population as Zambia. No idea  who it will benefit.

[politicus]

A majority of the Cabinet (14 incl. Chikwanda and Kalaba) now demand Scott's resignation because he is "throwing the country into chaos."

[politicus]

Scott has refused to step down and says its treason if they hold an unauthorized Cabinet meeting. In a declaration he states that he will not allow himself to be blackmailed into using state resources for partisan purposes.

There is no provision for impeaching an Acting President in the Zambian constitution.

[politicus]

Lusaka High Court judge Mungeni Mulenga has adjourned the case in which Miles Sampa is challenging Edgar Lungu's PF presidency to next Monday. So after the registration on Saturday. Lungu will get the candidacy thanks to his connections in the judiciary, but the party will be deeply split (many are expected to join Rainbow). Scott will block his access to (most) state funds and the Sampa case could still blow up in his face if it is somehow transferred to a non-friendly judge.

[politicus]

HH has formalized his coalition as the Zambia United campaign with UNPD (28), 25 MMD MPs, ADD (1) and independent MP Patrick Mucheleka behind it. So he got 55 MPs, Rupiah Banda is left with 30 (incl. MPs joining the PF government as deputy ministers, but they may support Lungu).

He has denied allegations of foreign funding on TV.

[politicus]

The courts medling in Zambian politics gets, well, stranger. On the last possible appeal (regarding an injunction Nevers Mumba had tried to obtain against his own NEC) the Supreme Court has decided that Nevers Mumba is still the rightful President of MMD and thereby its presidential candidate! Since Mumba has much less name recognition and (presumably) lacks ability to turn out Bandas base in Eastern Province, this means its a two man race. Lungu vs. HH.