Which Mark has the best chance of winning?
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  Which Mark has the best chance of winning?		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: ?
#1
Mark Begich		  
#2
Mark Pryor		  
#3
Mark Udall		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 49

Author Topic: Which Mark has the best chance of winning?  (Read 495 times)
Panda Express
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« on: October 29, 2014, 09:01:43 PM »
Only Mark Warner is safe. The rest of the Marks are in serious danger.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2014, 09:04:10 PM »
Begich, but all 3 are underdogs.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2014, 09:07:21 PM »
Begich
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KCDem
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2014, 09:08:00 PM »
Begich since he leads in the most of the recent polling.
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Vosem
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2014, 09:13:06 PM »
Udall, though all three are probably down. Polling has been off over the last several cycles in Alaska and Colorado; in different directions. If the polling is off, therefore, we should expect Udall to do better and Begich to do worse than projections.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2014, 09:14:36 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2014, 09:22:59 PM by ElectionsGuy »
Udall

Everybody on this board acknowledges that historically polls underestimate D's in Colorado, but nobody wants to acknowledge that polls in Alaska underestimate R's, by 7 points!
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2014, 09:17:36 PM »
Part of me still wants to say Udall but I went with Begich simply because nobody knows what the hell is happening up there.
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2014, 10:09:04 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on October 29, 2014, 09:14:36 PM
Udall

Everybody on this board acknowledges that historically polls underestimate D's in Colorado, but nobody wants to acknowledge that polls in Alaska underestimate R's, by 7 points!

which election was that?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2014, 11:10:16 PM »
Quote from: shua on October 29, 2014, 10:09:04 PM
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on October 29, 2014, 09:14:36 PM
Udall

Everybody on this board acknowledges that historically polls underestimate D's in Colorado, but nobody wants to acknowledge that polls in Alaska underestimate R's, by 7 points!

which election was that?

Its an average. http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-senate-polling-in-alaska-is-making-us-sweat/
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2014, 11:13:53 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on October 29, 2014, 09:17:36 PM
Part of me still wants to say Udall but I went with Begich simply because nobody knows what the hell is happening up there.

I went with this one... but I still have this weird weird feeling that Udall is being undervalued.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2014, 11:16:40 PM »
Udall, but I think all three will lose.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2014, 11:18:30 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on October 29, 2014, 09:14:36 PM
Udall

Everybody on this board acknowledges that historically polls underestimate D's in Colorado, but nobody wants to acknowledge that polls in Alaska underestimate R's, by 7 points!

Because it's still arguable it could be a pro-incumbent bias. We'll find out soon enough.
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Bigby
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2014, 11:20:59 PM »
Begich has the best shot. Kind of ironic considering Alaska's Republican tilt and the anti-incumbent mood of this election cycle. Pyror's state has become too hostile to Democrats overall, and Udall's become a uterus.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2014, 11:32:49 PM »
Pryor is almost certain to lose. Udall will likely need an October surprise. Begich by default, just because polling in Alaska is so difficult that we really don't have a great idea on where the race stands.
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