CA: Field: Brown up 54-33
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 10:01:55 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  CA: Field: Brown up 54-33
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: CA: Field: Brown up 54-33  (Read 3212 times)
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,615


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 30, 2014, 05:17:37 AM »

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/field-polls/article3456638.html
Logged
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,628
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2014, 05:33:50 AM »

New Poll: California Governor by Field Research Corporation on 2014-10-28

Summary: D: 54%, R: 33%, I: 0%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2014, 09:35:35 AM »

Curb stomp!
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2014, 09:38:33 AM »

It could've been worse for Kashkari, but Brown clearly is headed toward a tremendous victory. Way to go!
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2014, 01:31:56 PM »

I am thinking a 26-28 point win is likely. Maybe a little less because a lot of democrats just aren't going to bother turning out.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2014, 01:33:21 PM »

Ugh, really hard to pick between >50% and >60% here.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2014, 01:36:41 PM »

I am thinking a 26-28 point win is likely. Maybe a little less because a lot of democrats just aren't going to bother turning out.

Realy? The poll only shows a 21 point win, and my guess is undecideds break for Kashkari.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2014, 02:39:49 PM »

And Brown is winning whites 51-38.

Drudge and krazen will be so upset.
Logged
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2014, 02:51:44 PM »

Hopefully Tuck will win the superintendent's race. Cast my vote for him. I'm a union supporter, but the teacher tenure rules are outrageous.
Logged
Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,826
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2014, 02:53:35 PM »

Ugh, really hard to pick between >50% and >60% here.

He probably clears 60%.
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2014, 02:54:06 PM »

I am thinking a 26-28 point win is likely. Maybe a little less because a lot of democrats just aren't going to bother turning out.

Realy? The poll only shows a 21 point win, and my guess is undecideds break for Kashkari.

Undecideds will probably break for the Democrat in statewide races in California, especially when the Republican is a loser like Kashkari.
Logged
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2014, 03:11:15 PM »

I am thinking a 26-28 point win is likely. Maybe a little less because a lot of democrats just aren't going to bother turning out.

Realy? The poll only shows a 21 point win, and my guess is undecideds break for Kashkari.

Undecideds will probably break for the Democrat in statewide races in California, especially when the Republican is a loser like Kashkari.

Difficult to say. Even though Democrats will sweep statewide, motivation and turnout could be very low, which seems to be what's keeping the Republicans afloat in the competitive House and legislature districts.
Logged
Kraxner
Rookie
**
Posts: 179


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2014, 05:20:44 PM »

A 20% landslide might be great but i wonder if he's going to win Orange county when he did win it in 1978 with a 19.5% margin statewide.

Probably not but it would be indicative of how big he won.

Just hoping the green and peace and freedom party doesn't decrease his margin even though they probably will.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2014, 05:23:02 PM »

A 20% landslide might be great but i wonder if he's going to win Orange county when he did win it in 1978 with a 19.5% margin statewide.

Probably not but it would be indicative of how big he won.

Just hoping the green and peace and freedom party doesn't decrease his margin even though they probably will.

They can't. Top two system means only Brown and Kashkari are on the ballot.
Logged
KCDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,928


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2014, 05:35:55 PM »

Glorious news! Corrupto-man will be crushed by the Great Governor's moonbeam.
Logged
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2014, 05:55:55 PM »

Glorious news! Corrupto-man will be crushed by the Great Governor's moonbeam.

For once, I can completely and wholeheartedly agree with you.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2014, 10:34:48 PM »

Ugh, really hard to pick between >50% and >60% here.

>60% is an easy prediction since this is the top two and there are no independents/greens/libertarians in the mix. Brown should easily win by 20+. The real question is if he can crack 65%, but it's unlikely in an off year election with very low interest.
Logged
Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2014, 10:37:03 PM »

Undecideds break towards democrats in California. How can anyone deny that when virtually every democratic statewide candidate have outperformed their polling average there since 2004?
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2014, 10:39:00 PM »

I am thinking a 26-28 point win is likely. Maybe a little less because a lot of democrats just aren't going to bother turning out.

Realy? The poll only shows a 21 point win, and my guess is undecideds break for Kashkari.

If Brown wins whites, he will win by at least 20 points or so. If he wins whites by double digits....I think this poll more accurately represents what Kashkari ends up getting, not Brown. Let's see if I am right. The issue is that turnout could be very low which could end up limiting Browns margin of victory.
Logged
henster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,976


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2014, 10:39:28 PM »

Brown is not even trying no ads or GOTV if he did try we'd probably be looking at him clearing 63-65% of the vote but I say he just breaks 60%.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2014, 10:44:01 PM »

A 20% landslide might be great but i wonder if he's going to win Orange county when he did win it in 1978 with a 19.5% margin statewide.

Probably not but it would be indicative of how big he won.

Just hoping the green and peace and freedom party doesn't decrease his margin even though they probably will.

A 30 point win would be needed for Brown to carry Orange County, especially in an off year election. I do think Brown will win a bunch of mountain counties as well as counties in the Central Valley that no one is expecting.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,935
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2014, 10:44:37 PM »

Torlakson is actually a teacher, so he's best for the job. I don't think it makes much sense to elect people with no teaching background to offices regarding education, but that's just me.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2014, 10:47:46 PM »

It would be even better if they didn't have union connections.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,935
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2014, 10:52:11 PM »

Qualifications matter more than union gripes. That last thing we need is a superintendent trying to get into big fights with unions, that's just a lot of gridlock.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2014, 11:08:48 PM »

Qualifications matter more than union gripes. That last thing we need is a superintendent trying to get into big fights with unions, that's just a lot of gridlock.

Someone needs to do something. That has been my biggest disappointment with Brown.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.051 seconds with 15 queries.