Sabato: Calling the House Tossups
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  Sabato: Calling the House Tossups
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Author Topic: Sabato: Calling the House Tossups  (Read 1386 times)
Vega
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #25 on: October 30, 2014, 06:18:59 PM »

According to Sabato, it looks like R+6 or so, which I can live with.

Isn't it plus 9 Pub?  Anyway, I'm sticking with R+12, as a wild guess, and that is what all of us are doing at the margins, just making wild guesses. Nobody really knows.

Maybe I messed up my count, but yeah, R+12 isn't that bad either.
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SamInTheSouth
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« Reply #26 on: October 30, 2014, 06:38:57 PM »

AR-2 is wrong, Hill should lose to Hays.  Everything else looks about right.

If this were 2012 I'd agree with you, but there is a Republican wave building across the country, in a similar manner as 2010.  Barring a scandal (like Michael Grimm in NY and even he is polling ahead in his race) I doubt any Republican leaning seat is going to flip this year.
Hays is poling 4 to 10 points ahead of Hill, the seat is going to flip as of now.

I guess we're going to find out pretty soon.
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SamInTheSouth
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« Reply #27 on: October 30, 2014, 07:31:43 PM »

Polling for House races seems to be erratic.  I think we're going to see more than few surprises Tuesday night.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
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« Reply #28 on: October 30, 2014, 08:20:35 PM »

Sabato has never been much good at details, so...
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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« Reply #29 on: October 31, 2014, 12:16:50 AM »

So R+9 then? Wave elections certainly don't have single digit changes in the House.
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #30 on: October 31, 2014, 05:56:51 PM »

Like most sensible posters on this forum, I long ago stopped considering Sabato much of an expert at calling races. He's nowhere near Dick Morris hack levels, but he's only moderately reliable at BEST.
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KCDem
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« Reply #31 on: October 31, 2014, 06:07:52 PM »

Can't wait for Huelskamp to lose!
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Mr. Reactionary
blackraisin
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« Reply #32 on: November 01, 2014, 02:58:05 AM »

Wouldn't be surprised at all if Kilpatrick loses. Her voting record doesn't match her district, and they've taken their rage out on her before.
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