Sabato: Calling the House Tossups
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  Sabato: Calling the House Tossups
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Author Topic: Sabato: Calling the House Tossups  (Read 1385 times)
Miles
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« on: October 30, 2014, 09:47:01 AM »

Article.

Overall, pretty good for Republicans, but a few good changes for Democrats:



These aren't the final ratings; they may tweak some on Monday:

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Maxwell
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2014, 09:48:40 AM »

Moving AR-2 to Lean R is pretty dumb. French Hill has blown his advantage and that race is still up in the air.
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DS0816
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2014, 09:54:09 AM »

Just to ask: Are people confident with Larry Sabato as much now as they had been in previous election cycles? (My reason for asking is from his site's presidential predictions from 2012.)
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2014, 10:43:27 AM »

AR-2 is wrong, Hill should lose to Hays.  Everything else looks about right.
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Torie
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2014, 11:01:56 AM »

What is by far the most probable, is that at least 10 of Sabato's calls are wrong. Smiley

One call I think is wrong is NY-18. I think it will go Pub, and NY-24 is now a true toss up. The Dems are headed towards a pretty terrible election night in NY. The Dems are listless and demoralized. Meanwhile, interesting things are happening in CA, including a sudden money dump by the Dems into CA-24, a seat that has all along not really been considered at risk.
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SamInTheSouth
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2014, 11:49:09 AM »

AR-2 is wrong, Hill should lose to Hays.  Everything else looks about right.

If this were 2012 I'd agree with you, but there is a Republican wave building across the country, in a similar manner as 2010.  Barring a scandal (like Michael Grimm in NY and even he is polling ahead in his race) I doubt any Republican leaning seat is going to flip this year.
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2014, 01:09:27 PM »

FL-02 is complete BS.
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2014, 01:11:13 PM »

NY-01 and NH-01 are also hilarious.
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2014, 01:12:12 PM »

And seriously, how is Kirkpatrick more vulnerable than Barber?
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KCDem
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2014, 01:21:54 PM »

Amy Bera and Brad Schneider are underdogs? Hahaha okay Loony Larry Roll Eyes
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2014, 01:29:14 PM »

AR-2 is wrong, Hill should lose to Hays.  Everything else looks about right.

If this were 2012 I'd agree with you, but there is a Republican wave building across the country, in a similar manner as 2010.  Barring a scandal (like Michael Grimm in NY and even he is polling ahead in his race) I doubt any Republican leaning seat is going to flip this year.
Hays is poling 4 to 10 points ahead of Hill, the seat is going to flip as of now.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2014, 01:32:26 PM »

Amy Bera and Brad Schneider are underdogs? Hahaha okay Loony Larry Roll Eyes

Don't know anything about Schneider's race, but Bera's showing in the primary was concerning. I'd say he has a true 50-50 shot of holding on.

Disagree with AR-2, AZ-1, and NH-1.

I think Republicans end with 239 or 240.
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Devils30
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2014, 02:43:58 PM »


Dems have a very strong candidate in FL-02. Remains to be seen what happens but this district also tends to give stronger support to statewide Democrats rather than national ones. Sink won it in 2010 and Crist could again this year.
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Smash255
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2014, 03:08:54 PM »


^^^^^  This
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Vega
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2014, 03:17:36 PM »

According to Sabato, it looks like R+6 or so, which I can live with.
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2014, 03:18:58 PM »

And seriously, how is Kirkpatrick more vulnerable than Barber?
I think Kirkpatrick is a weaker candidate than Barber, and McSally is weaker than Barber.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2014, 03:58:30 PM »

lol at NY-01. Every single year the pundits bloviate about how THIS TIME, REALLY REALLY Tim Bishop is gonna lose. Then he wins. AR-02 is also silly. "muh red state" is strong with this one.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2014, 04:00:29 PM »

lol at NY-01. Every single year the pundits bloviate about how THIS TIME, REALLY REALLY Tim Bishop is gonna lose. Then he wins. AR-02 is also silly. "muh red state" is strong with this one.

Bishop could've gone down if they ran Altschuler one more time, but instead they went with Lee Zeldin, who is not a very good nominee. I doubt Bishop loses.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2014, 04:04:12 PM »

lol at NY-01. Every single year the pundits bloviate about how THIS TIME, REALLY REALLY Tim Bishop is gonna lose. Then he wins. AR-02 is also silly. "muh red state" is strong with this one.

Bishop could've gone down if they ran Altschuler one more time, but instead they went with Lee Zeldin, who is not a very good nominee. I doubt Bishop loses.

I think the pundits hate Bishop for some reason. I remember reading a column in 2012 (I forget if it was from Sabato or Rothenberg) about how the race was a coin flip, and the rest of it was basically outright cheerleading for Altschuler. It was really strange.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2014, 04:05:29 PM »

lol at NY-01. Every single year the pundits bloviate about how THIS TIME, REALLY REALLY Tim Bishop is gonna lose. Then he wins. AR-02 is also silly. "muh red state" is strong with this one.

Bishop could've gone down if they ran Altschuler one more time, but instead they went with Lee Zeldin, who is not a very good nominee. I doubt Bishop loses.

I think the pundits hate Bishop for some reason. I remember reading a column in 2012 (I forget if it was from Sabato or Rothenberg) about how the race was a coin flip, and the rest of it was basically outright cheerleading for Altschuler. It was really strange.

Bishop has consistently made CREW's Most Corrupt Congressmen, so maybe that's a reason (a good one at that).
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Miles
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« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2014, 04:52:37 PM »

I wish Sabato had a Tilt category, at least for when he called the Tossups.

If he had to pick a winner in pure tossup contests, putting them in a Tilt category seems a lot less abrupt than jumping to Lean.
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Vega
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« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2014, 05:00:20 PM »

lol at NY-01. Every single year the pundits bloviate about how THIS TIME, REALLY REALLY Tim Bishop is gonna lose. Then he wins.

I don't know how he wins, NY-01 has the makeup of a solid R+6 district, but he works his magic every time.
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KCDem
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« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2014, 05:43:41 PM »



Roll Eyes

Gwen Graham will win.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2014, 05:45:09 PM »

I don't think AZ-1 is more likely to go R than AZ-2, and I completely disagree with NY-1, but other than that it looks good.
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Torie
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« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2014, 05:48:03 PM »

According to Sabato, it looks like R+6 or so, which I can live with.

Isn't it plus 9 Pub?  Anyway, I'm sticking with R+12, as a wild guess, and that is what all of us are doing at the margins, just making wild guesses. Nobody really knows.
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