Why Polls Tend to Undercount Democrats

[eric82oslo]

It's a fact that Hispanics are extremely hard to reach, and the few who pollsters actually do reach, and who are even willing (or able) to conduct an interview in English, is an even lower percentage and much more Republican-inclined than the rest of the Hispanic population. Long story short, it would be nothing short of a miracle if Colorado polls this year were not at least somewhat skewed towards the Republican candidates. Georgia and North Carolina are other states where Republican candidates are seeing artificially high polling numbers, due to the same phenomenon.

[cinyc]

It's turnout, turnout, turnout. In close races where get out the vote operations contacting every possible voter, there is no way that likely voter polls can pick up on last minute voters or even have contact information.

Most rational people hate getting incessant calls from political candidates begging them to vote, and just wish the calls would go away.  And they hide from strangers knocking on their doors.

[Frodo]

'These polls are skewed -pay them no mind...'   Is this seriously going to be our argument? 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

'These polls are skewed -pay them no mind...'   Is this seriously going to be our argument? 

I think you're missing the point. The GOP is doing well, no question and will probably pick up the Senate... but unlike 'unskewed' from 2012, which was based on a complete misunderstanding and fantasty mind-set, there is consistent evidence that Democrats do have a tendency to be undervalued in polls, especially in certain states. That's not some grand conspiracy theory, it is backed up with evidence.

I think in a few states, CO in particular, but possibly GA too, among others the polling is showing you the trend and the tilt, but the Democratic position may be being under-valued. I don't know about anybody else, but that's my view. It might not mean much in the end, but it might just mean the races end up much closer than what might be being presumed from polling.

[IceSpear]

People seriously need to read the article before they comment. It's from the NY Times, not Daily Kos or unskewedpolls.com, and it has very good arguments.

[DrScholl]

It's turnout, turnout, turnout. In close races where get out the vote operations contacting every possible voter, there is no way that likely voter polls can pick up on last minute voters or even have contact information.

Most rational people hate getting incessant calls from political candidates begging them to vote, and just wish the calls would go away.  And they hide from strangers knocking on their doors.

I've actually volunteered for a campaign and get out the vote does work, there are plenty of voters who do respond to calls or visits, and get out to vote at the last minute.

[Adam Griffin]

People seriously need to read the article before they comment. It's from the NY Times, not Daily Kos or unskewedpolls.com, and it has very good arguments.

Indeed. I started out with a neutral take on it, but I'm amazed at the level of stupidity from several people in this thread. It's obvious they haven't read the analysis, the data or the comments from pollsters who are saying this as well. This isn't some equivalent sole partisan hack making a claim based on nothing (I can see why Republicans would want to make the false equivalency, though, because they were stupid to believe that nonsense in 2012).