Why Polls Tend to Undercount Democrats (user search)
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  Why Polls Tend to Undercount Democrats (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why Polls Tend to Undercount Democrats  (Read 1347 times)
IceSpear
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Posts: 31,840
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Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« on: October 30, 2014, 03:36:37 PM »

I like how people ignore the actual hard data to whine about "unskewed polls" or whatever.

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These are facts. Nobody disputes this. Does this mean it's guaranteed to happen again in 2014? No. Does it mean it's more likely for polls to underestimate Democrats than to underestimate Republicans? Certainly.

I think the bottom line is the "likely voter" screens. While LVs are much more reliable than RVs close to an election, an election isn't just likely voters. It's likely voters plus some "unlikely voters". These "unlikely voters" tend to skew Democratic, thus Democrats outperform the polls. It also depends on the pollster. Most of them don't even bother to disclose their likely voter screens so we have no idea how strict they are. Some of them have absolutely ridiculous ones like "MUST have voted in 2010" or "MUST have voted in the last 10 elections" which are obviously going to give heavily Republican results.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2014, 03:39:29 PM »

I don't think polls undercount Democrats in midterms. Aren't the results in midterms much more Republican than the polls predicted? I know that in 2010 they were way off. The GOP won some seats that weren't even close in the polls (for instance, the seat in Duluth and Boucher's seat in Virginia).

Huh? Everybody knew those were toss ups going into election day (though it wasn't known until late in the cycle).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/va/virginia_9th_district_griffith_vs_boucher-1390.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/mn/minnesota_8th_district_cravaack_vs_oberstar-1712.html
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2014, 06:39:56 PM »

People seriously need to read the article before they comment. It's from the NY Times, not Daily Kos or unskewedpolls.com, and it has very good arguments.
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