Why Polls Tend to Undercount Democrats

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I don't think polls undercount Democrats in midterms. Aren't the results in midterms much more Republican than the polls predicted? I know that in 2010 they were way off. The GOP won some seats that weren't even close in the polls (for instance, the seat in Duluth and Boucher's seat in Virginia).

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, polls and the actual results are both very different from what most Americans really think. Polls are weighted for past election results, and we know how elections are rigged. This has gone on my whole adult life, which is many election cycles, so God only knows how far off it really is.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, polls and the actual results are both very different from what most Americans really think. Polls are weighted for past election results, and we know how elections are rigged. This has gone on my whole adult life, which is many election cycles, so God only knows how far off it really is.

In what way?

Voter suppression, for one thing.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I don't think polls undercount Democrats in midterms. Aren't the results in midterms much more Republican than the polls predicted? I know that in 2010 they were way off. The GOP won some seats that weren't even close in the polls (for instance, the seat in Duluth and Boucher's seat in Virginia).

Huh? Everybody knew those were toss ups going into election day (though it wasn't known until late in the cycle).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/va/virginia_9th_district_griffith_vs_boucher-1390.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/mn/minnesota_8th_district_cravaack_vs_oberstar-1712.html

That wasn't really how I remember it. Back in 2010, I just assumed the Democrats would win those seats, plus others they ended up losing. I was absolutely shocked by the results that year, especially considering the way public opinion was going.

Now I know to just assume that very close races will go Republican - unless there's very strong evidence otherwise.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Anyone else remember them good ol' days when cellphone folks were overwhelmingly GOP? Rush Limbaugh even used to brag about accepting cellphone calls.