Why Polls Tend to Undercount Democrats

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://unskewedpolls.com/

Actually, no. Part of the reason why I, and many Obama supporters were confident he'd win was because in a number of key states, Colorado and Nevada being key, and their history of underestimating Democrats for a number of reasons.

Unskewed Polls was based on GOP fantasy and an inability to read trends and party ID graphs.

I do think Democrats Will out-perform expectations - but not to the extent of changing too much in the end.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Now that the Democrats are behind, it's their turn to whine about bad polling.

It's easy to be dismissive, except the complaints about Democratic under-polling are based in fact.

But we'll see.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

'These polls are skewed -pay them no mind...'   Is this seriously going to be our argument? 

I think you're missing the point. The GOP is doing well, no question and will probably pick up the Senate... but unlike 'unskewed' from 2012, which was based on a complete misunderstanding and fantasty mind-set, there is consistent evidence that Democrats do have a tendency to be undervalued in polls, especially in certain states. That's not some grand conspiracy theory, it is backed up with evidence.

I think in a few states, CO in particular, but possibly GA too, among others the polling is showing you the trend and the tilt, but the Democratic position may be being under-valued. I don't know about anybody else, but that's my view. It might not mean much in the end, but it might just mean the races end up much closer than what might be being presumed from polling.